Peel's Picks 22-23

so these have to be 105-106 for a play?

Peel their cap boss 

 Peel 

@Osser

 The Devils game in particular had 4% edge at -105 so it was a play

FLA -0.5 (-133)

Nothing today.

10/27 Plays

STL +140
DAL -130
SEA -125
LA -135

YTD
20-15
+3.90u

Rags made it to +130 

Just like last night 

10\26

NYR +130

GL 

I needed an excuse to bet Rags.

Good luck my dude. I see SO many people on the Isles and I just can’t pull the trigger. Never thought it would hit +130. Good value. 

Goodluck Peel

You guys! BOL!

Have a question for you and any other edge players out there. When considering your edge over the book do you factor OUT the juice or just consider your edge with the juice included? Sorry if that isn't phrased properly, but I guess what I'm asking is -which edge do you use? With juice or without?  My feeling is that the juice should be taken out of the equation as that is the 'true odds'. Or I could be totally wrong , in which case I will deny ever writing this question!

Do you only pay juice when you lose? If so then taking the true odds would seem the way to go?

Forgive me if it's NON question for I am Old and just learning the ways of this New Age Analytical shit 

I also wonder about your MM, are you following Peta's model of basis points? 

Need the Blues to get it going in the 3rd for us. I didn’t post it but I played them last minute when they made it to +160. 

@rustie

 I actually never incorporated the "no juice" probability but it's something I may look to do!

YTD 
21-19
+0.10u

10/28

NJD +120

Thanks for the reply Peel, I personally have been taking the 'juice' out of the equation and have a record similar to your own (22-20 +.15U all undocumented here), I also Flat Bet. Good luck tonight brother 

Anytime. Yeah, I'm pretty sure the differences in juice vs non juice are fairly negligible, and will almost always benefit the dog anyway regardless.

You got it early and a good number. Been falling all day. 

GL tonight Peel 

Actually kinda surprised it's falling. Not sure why the public would go after Jersey against the defending champs?

@peelpub94

 That's exactly why I didn't pull the trigger and join you guys. This just felt like a game to sit back and enjoy but I'll be pulling for the Devils for the Forum. 

@Kmoore307

 It really doesn't make any sense. Line has dropped 15 cents and 9% of the money is on the Devils...?