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2009 Tour de France

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Posted: #26
All bets:
 
Overall classification:
 
Contador to win the Tour @2.15
Evans over Andy Schleck @1.93
 
Points classification:
 
Freire over Cavendish @2.68
Hushovd over Cavendish @3.84
 
First stage:
 
The Field over Cancellara @2.38
 
Prospect
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Posted: #27
Quote Originally Posted by delasoul_iam:

I took the same two bets a week ago: Hushovd @ 3.84 (it actually was 4.02 at top), and Freire at 2.68. The problem with those bets: There are only two flat stages after stage 15, so if Cavendish really dominates the first two weeks flat stages there will be no chance for other sprinters to battle back even if he retires.

It doesn't matter, Cavendish will dominate for sure but when he'll quit, he'll be out of the standing therefore your 2 plays will be winners.

I'm not even sure Cavendish will wear the green jersey once.

 

 

 

 
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Posted: #28
Adding live in play...
 
2.5 units Evans over Contador @ 2.40 2.5 units
2.5 units Field @ 2.75
 
Prospect
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Posts: 289
Posted: #29
Oh god...How can this be true...
 
 
I've basically lost everything I've won in Switzerland
 
No one could even win a matchup.
 
-27.25 units 0-7 record...
 
 
 
 
 
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Posted: #30
Oh my, this was a slaughter of a day to say the least. Everything did not end well. Fabian in a league of his own. Absolutely no one could keep up with him even with the uphill challenge. Amazing.

Let's hope this was just a weird day and everyone can get back on track in the days to come. BOL to you all.


 
Legend
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Posted: #31
Thor Hushovd is a peice of shit
 
Legend
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Posted: #32
Thor Hushovd is a peice of shit
 
Veteran
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Posted: #33
Quote Originally Posted by n1ck:

Oh god...How can this be true...
 

 


Yeah, thats a better way to put it. Money management is key but going 0 - 7 is like a punch in the face . Now it's time to get back up and struggle to get back in the game if you still can and want to do so.

Also, time to keep it simple and jump on underdog value plays that stand out as being strange offers. I'll be tracking how well the dogs perform in the matchup and will have data to back up these claims if I see conclusive results in some way.
 
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Posted: #34
This first stage was a shocker.
 
However, the overall bets are looking good now.
 
Rogers is the GC man for Columbia. I don't know what happened to Kirchen. That shocked me.
 
That Contador/Evans quinella is looking very nice!
 
Captain
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Posted: #35
Cavendish will be even money tomorrow - get on him.
 
Unless you're ambitious to find a head to head or a top 3, get on cav.
 
Hushovd top 3 might be a good go. Handy odds. Or Haussler top 3. Farrar top 3 maybe.
 
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Posted: #36
I hope you don't mind me sharing this info in your thread Bolar but I did get to calculate how good the dogs did in the H2H for stage 1.Please tell me if you'd prefer I post this elsewhere on the forum if ever this thread gets too heavy.

NOTE: All lines are from Pinnacle and are dated from 8h12 PM on July the 2nd. I was hoping to use opening lines but copied the odds too late to observe opening lines. I know this alters the results but I'll keep track of opening lines ( or as close as I get them ) in the future. Also, by dogs, I am not referring to + money only. As you can see, slight underdogs are also counted in the results.

RESULTS :   12 - 8   from 21 matchups offered on Pinny. One no bet because of equal lines.

This might not work but here is a copy-paste job to outline the breakdown of the results. I am finding this quite interesting to track how well the bookies set the cycling lines. I am expecting everything to even out by the time the tour is done but will track anyways. Sorry if the following screws up the page. I'll ask CT to remove if it happens.


 
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Posted: #37
Had too much trouble copying the list of results on here so uploaded the doc file right HERE. Feel free to check if I made any errors.

I'm counting a profit of + 6.85 units so far.
 
Legend
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Posted: #38
Interesting numbers elite
 
Captain
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Posted: #39
Don't mind you posting here. We are here to help each other.
 
 
 
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Posted: #40

Goodluck Bolar!

I'm on Rogers over Vande Velde myself. A bit disappointed that Rogers broke his chain twice in Stage 1 but i'm confident he will bounce back..

 
Captain
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Posted: #41
10 units Cavendish @ $2.10
 
Good luck!
 
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Posted: #42
Good call on Contador last night Bolar re making a statement


I was on Evans head to head vs Contador,they both rode extremely well but Contador got the faster time
 
Captain
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Posted: #43

Quote Originally Posted by Ace77:

Good call on Contador last night Bolar re making a statement


I was on Evans head to head vs Contador,they both rode extremely well but Contador got the faster time

Wish I was on it!

 
Captain
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Posted: #44
3 units Hushovd to place @ $4.50
 
Captain
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Posted: #45
Easy for Cav
Lost for Haussler - that was actually Haussler to place, not Hushovd.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #46
It was easy money on Cavendish but I was away for the day yesterday, I couldn't place any bet.
 
Stage 3 will be the same...Cavendish to take it over Hushovd and Farrar.
 
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Posted: #47
When was the last time a sprinter was below $1.80 to win a Tour de France stage?
 
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Posted: #48
When was the last time a sprinter in the TDF was under $1.80?

Most places have him under $1.70 so far.

For people that don't have balls to take Cav at those odds - back Farrar for a place.

And look for a head to head!
 
Prospect
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Posted: #49
Cavendish is at 1.50 on Bet365.  No one can beat the Columbia train.
 
I think Hushovd will push hard enough to rank amount the top 3.  Farrar will do the same.
 
There's no value in taking Cavendish @ 1.60 on Pinnacle, here are my 4 units sprinter H2H.
 
Hushovd over Freire @ 2.00 Expecting 2nd and 6th
 
Feillu over Napolitano @ 2.05 The french rider need to impress.
 
Roche over Arashiro @ 1.725 The asian rider is inexpected at the top, he'll go back to 20th postion tomorrow.
 
Haussler over Renshaw @ 1.735 The other sprinter for Cervelo. He might keep in touch with Hushovd until the end.
 
Wish for a much better day.
 
 
Captain
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Posted: #50
Arashiro over Bonnet is tempting - $2.43
 
Furlan over Rojas @ $1.87 is tempting too!
 
Bennati over Boonen @ $2.43
 
Hmmm! Let me think on that one!
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