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2009 Tour de France

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Captain
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Posts: 5831
Posted: #1
My preview is here. Not going to be bothered copy and pasting it.

https://www.dailypeloton.com/displayarticle.asp?pk=15108

Anyway I'm setting myself aside 55 units for the Tour. That's how much I'm prepared to lose. Hopefully I won't need to get anywhere near there.

Overall Classification

10 units Evans top 3 @ $2.50 - this is relatively safe.

8 units Rogers over Vande Velde @ $1.95 - They are kidding aern't they? Vande Velde will struggle coming back from that injury.

Quinella

4 units Contador/Evans @ $7.50
3 units Contador/Menchov @ $11

Green Jersey

I'll have my Green Jersey preview up as soon as Boonen get his final decision.

4 units Hushovd @ $7
1 units Haussler @ $23

Cervello and Columbia's sprint trains are strong. Freire won't have it his own way with Rabobank focusing on Menchov and Gesink. Bennati won't have it his own way with Liquigas focusing on Kreuziger, Nibabli and Pellizotti

Cavendish has never completed a Grand tour before.

Polka Dot Jersey

1 unit Moreau @ $16

Team Classification

4 units Liquigas over Rabobank @ $2.30
 
 
 
Hall of Fame
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Posted: #2
Good luck bolar
 
Captain
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Posted: #3
Stage 1

3 units Hushovd over Haussler @ $1.81
7 units Kirchen over Nibali @ $1.75

Good luck
 
Captain
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Posted: #4
Cheers battler!
 
Rookie
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Posted: #5
i love cycling. which book do u have bolar. luxbet have fcukall. only outrite winner and outrite h2h.
 
Captain
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Posted: #6
Sportingbet, Centrebet, Pinnacle, Betfair and IASbet are the major ones I use.
 
I also use some smaller ones aswell.
 
Prospect
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Posts: 289
Posted: #7
That's what I'm talking about. I had the same 2 plays in mind for stage 1.
 
May I suggest you some plays...
 
What about putting money on Hushovd over Cavendish for the Overall classification for Green Jersey. At least to win 4 units to safe your bet if he doesn't win straight.
 
Anyway you could put Martin over Wiggins and Evans over Contador on the first stage ?
 
 
Captain
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Posted: #8
Quote Originally Posted by n1ck:

That's what I'm talking about. I had the same 2 plays in mind for stage 1.
 
May I suggest you some plays...
 
What about putting money on Hushovd over Cavendish for the Overall classification for Green Jersey. At least to win 4 units to safe your bet if he doesn't win straight.
 
Anyway you could put Martin over Wiggins and Evans over Contador on the first stage ?
 

Thanks I'll think about that one.

Martin over Wiggins is 50/50

Remember Contador's ride in Paris Nice? That is 50/50 too.

Although thinking about it tonight, I may pull the trigger.

 
Veteran
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Posts: 3552
Posted: #9
Brillant. Gonna read through the rider preview and then consider most of your plays. May this be a very profitable and enjoyable race to everyone in here  .
 
Captain
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Posted: #10
LLS top 10 @ $4 is a good play too.
 
I'll be looking at that.
 
Who thinks that Contador might help his friend a bit if he doens't have team support from Astana?
 
Captain
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Posted: #11
Consider Moreau big time for the climbers jersey. Yes Moncoutie is aiming for it, but isn't this Moreau's last tour?
 
Captain
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Posted: #12
 
Sprinters jersey preview is up!
 
Prospect
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Posted: #13
thanks mate. very nice preview
 
Captain
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Posted: #14
I been thinking about tonight's stage. I'm not going to touch it as yet on the winner but this course doesn't suit Cancellara.
 
It might suit Contador who might send out a message. It suits Menchov. It suits Evans. It suits Kirchen.
 
Veteran
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Posted: #15
Quote Originally Posted by Bolar:

 I'm not going to touch it as yet on the winner but this course doesn't suit Cancellara.
 
It might suit Contador who might send out a message. It suits Menchov. It suits Evans. It suits Kirchen.


How about the field at 2.38. Nice price no?
 
Captain
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Posted: #16
I thought Pinnacle offered a better price for the field? - Taking the field small might be a go. I know I said this during Switzerland so....it's up to you.
 
Look, Cancellara is a man in form - yes, but there is a 10% gradient climb......
 
.5 units Kirchen top 3 @ $16.50
 
1 unit Martin over Wiggins @ $2.57
 
1.5 unit Menchov over Kreuziger @ $1.91
 
Good luck!
 
Captain
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Posted: #17
That Kirchen over Nibali bet is going down like crazy.
 
When I got on it, it was 1.77 then the next one was 1.75 or something. Now it is down to around 1.48
 
I'm not the only one putting money on this.....
 
Prospect
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Posted: #18
One think is amazing here...every single matchups I had in mind you picked them.
 
Menchov, Martin, Kirchen, Field, Hushovd.  The only one you didn't pick is Evans over Contador. 
 
I'm placing all my plays, I'll post them soon.
 
Captain
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Posted: #19
Be careful on that last one nick...
 
Evans doesn't perform well in GT time trials.
 
Contador - remember Paris-Nice? Contador might want to send a message out today to settle the leadership issue. If he does win and gets yellow, then Astana won't defend it tomorrow and hope the break wins.
 
Legend
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Posted: #20
Nice writeups Bolar



I really like Dennis Menchov,just looking over a few now that interest me


Stage 1 matchups betting

Menchov vs Kreuziger

Menchov @1.88


King of the mountain matchups

Menchov vs Evans

Menchov @1.77



Overall YJ matchups

Menchov vs Sastre

Menchov @1.88



Dennis Menchov vs Andy Schleck


Menchov @2.28






Really like this guy,any thoughts on the above?







 
Prospect
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Posted: #21
I had a long list of leans a week or 2 before the Tour.  I've waited too long and lost crucial value on the odds. I'm deposited my money this morning and placed all my bets, here they are :
 
Over 100 units for the entire tour.
 
Points
 
As I said, I don't think Cavendish will finish the Tour.  He has something else to do and he hasn't proved to anyway he can climb. He will probably leave the Tour before stage 15, let's see.
 
Hushovd 20 units @ 3.37 ( Was 3.94 at the top )
Freire 20 units @ 2.63
 
Teams

I lost all the value I had at the beginning. I had to double my play to have the same payout.
 
Saxo Bank over Rabobank 20 units @ 1.40 ( 1.80 at the top )
 
Mountains
 
If Contador is going to win it Overall, I like his chance to take at least one stage in the mountain therefore 20 points the KOM standing. He'll show his power and push it hard. 
 
Contador over Moncoutie 8 units @ 2.56
 
Overall
 
Sastre switch to a young and inexperimented team.  I can't see anyone leading him to the top.  Evans has shown his ambition to win the Tour and I think he's about to show it this morning with a top 3 at the Prologue.
 
Evans over Sastre 10 units @ 1.621
 
Same thinking, Andy replaced Sastre as the leader of Saxo Bank.  If he eats properly, he's my man to take it overall.  Better team and much better climber...
 
Andy over Evans 8 units @ 1.763
 
Pereiro has won the Tour once and crashed hard last year.  LLS is powerfull but has never shown anything in France. They are in the same team but Pereiro is wearing the 111, the leader's jersey
 
Pereiro over Sanchez 5 units @ 2.72
 
Stage 1
 
No suprise here, basically all the same picks.
 
Martin over Wiggins as I suggested.
 
2.5 units @ 2.57
 
Menchov over Kreuziger, the question is Do you think you can win it ?  If Menchov says yes watch out for him, otherwise he won't give a fuck and rider slowly.
 
5 units @ 1.885
 
Kirchen over Nibali, no value but 90 % winner
 
Kirchen is a champ and he's representing the best overall rider for Columbia, lot of pressure.
 
5 units @ 1.478
 
Hushovd is a much better overall cyclist then Haussler.  He knows how climb which is a major avantage.
 
5 units @ 1.719
 
 
 
 
Prospect
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Posts: 289
Posted: #22
All theses picks are placed on Pinnacle.
 
I forgot about 2 plays on Bet365.
 
Overall
 
Kirchen to finish top 10, 5 units @ 2.25  He has always finished top 10 and he's in good shape.  As a leader he must be in the top 10
 
Stage 1
 
An interessting parlay, I love both of my play and really think Evans can win the Prologue. 
 
Parlay :
 
Evans over Contador ( offered @ 1.90 )
The Field ( offered @ 2.40 )
 
4.75 units @ 4.58
 
I also placed a  51 ¢ play on Leipheimer to take it @ 19, just for fun,
 
We will know tonigh if Armstrong is there to win or for fun.  If he can ride properly and finished at least top 10 and hopefully top 5 he's going to win the Tour. Otherwise, there is easy money to fade him.
 
 
 
 
 
Veteran
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Posts: 1098
Posted: #23
As far I know this Tour has less time trial km and less km in mountains than usual so the favorites for the YJ are going to have to concentrate hard on this stage.
Couple of weeks ago in an interview I heard Armstrong talking about how this years first stage is going to have an increased importance.
While for sure nobody is going to win the Tour on this one, its ideal for sending out the message to others, and if some of the faves fall short on this stage, they might have a hard time making up for the lost time later on.
 
Veteran
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Posts: 1098
Posted: #24
Quote Originally Posted by n1ck:

As I said, I don't think Cavendish will finish the Tour.  He has something else to do and he hasn't proved to anyway he can climb. He will probably leave the Tour before stage 15, let's see.
 
Hushovd 20 units @ 3.37 ( Was 3.94 at the top )
Freire 20 units @ 2.63
 
 

I took the same two bets a week ago: Hushovd @ 3.84 (it actually was 4.02 at top), and Freire at 2.68. The problem with those bets: There are only two flat stages after stage 15, so if Cavendish really dominates the first two weeks flat stages there will be no chance for other sprinters to battle back even if he retires.

 
 
Veteran
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Posts: 1098
Posted: #25
Of course that above is Hushovd over Cavendish and Freire over Cavendish
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