2010 Tour de France

Thanks for the article - a great read.. Your right, it's going to be close!! Goodluck :)

McEwen struggled last night so that should eliminate a sprinter soon enough. Petacchi should be eliminated as that article suggests.

It all depends on what Columbia's motivations are. We need two more wins and there's 3 possible stages.

5 units Contador @ $2.75

That's a 4 unit play on Wiggins.

All up, these are my bets in one post.

.2 units Pierrick Fedrigo @ $51
.2 units Egoi Martinez @ $51
.1 unit Christophe Moreau @ $126
.1 unit Damien Monier @ $151
.2 units Rein Taaramae @ $81
.2 units Tony Martin @ $81
.1 units Amael Moinard @ $67
.1 unit Iban Mayoz @ $81

5 units Roman Kreuziger over Alexandre Vinokourov @ $1.65
3 units Roman Kreuziger over Jurgen Van Den Broeck @ $2.15
5 units Joaquim Rodriguez over Alexandre Vinokourov @ $1.65
4 units Luis Leon Sanchez over Nicolas Roche @ $1.87
4 units Levi Leipheimer over Janez Brajkovic @ $1.60
3.5 units Samuel Sanchez over Robert Gesink @ $2
3 units Samuel Sanchez over Jurgen Van Den Broeck @ $2.30
2.5 units Pierre Rolland over Ryder Hesjedal @ $2.20
4 units Bradley Wiggins over Carlos Sastre @ $1.65

5 units Alberto Contador @ $2.75

Gesink can't descend but it's all a matter of how Van den Broeck goes. The jury is out on him. I don't have the balls to back him or fade him.

Best downhiller is Samuel Sanchez by a country mile.

In regards to the break, it all depends on how much the peloton split. There is 20km technical descent so it's impossible to organise a chase on that. The last 10km to the end may not be long enough to chase down a lone rider who took risks on the descent.

Highly unlikely a group contests the stage finish. Either going to be one or two from a break or one or two from the peloton.

Lovkvist and Wiggins - two riders who will lose time today. If I were confident Lovkvist would make it over the top I would take it.

I would expect Wiggins and Sastre to lose time today. Hesjedal too. But again, it depends on how fast the peloton take the stage. If they take it slow, then no one will be dropped. If they put the hammer down, the race will split.

If you have a minute on a group at the top of the climb and you can descend, you won't be caught.

Luis Leon Sanchez is also another one that can descend. Likewise Kreuziger.

Basso, Menchov, Nibali all suck at descending.

-6.25 for stage 8

+2.15 units Stage 9

Prologue: +18.08
Stage 1: -14
Stage 2: +1.7
Stage 3: +31.35
Stage 4: +2.2
Stage 5: +16.21
Stage 6: +6
Stage 7: -5.3
Stage 8: -6.25
Stage 9: +2.15

Overall: +52.14

Most my overall bets are looking strong too.

I'll give you that assessment when I see the odds in about 10 hours time.

Voeckler definitely. French never win on Bastille day so look out for other guys. Chavanel will probably attack again. Voeckler should be motivated. Vogondy, Fedrigo. Wouldn't back Boasson-Hagen. Not worth it.

Ivanov certainly can upstage them.

David Millar finished way behind today. By himself at the end - he could try something.

Marcus Burghardt tanked it it looks like - he was on fire in Switzerland