AFL - RD 8

Last Round: 7-8
YTD: 30-34

WB -10.5
Adel -1.5

Good luck this weekend!!!

WCE -39.5

Good point Peekay, don't think there's a lot of value in the Dogs play, but feel good about covering by 2 goals.

Can't wait for Crows and Cats. Cats the better team IMO, but at home off a loss, Crows find a way to win.

Ess/NM Over 185.5
Rich 1H +12.5
Carl +15.5

Considering the Over in Crows/Cats, thoughts anyone?

Ohhh I like that NM/Ess OVER 

Opened at 196.5 (I think), sitting at 198.5 past few days. Crows D isn't good enough to keep Cats under 100, and Cats great D will be hindered here. Only games that have gone under there are when Port O sucks or Port plays a lousy team, haha.

3 games in the 160s:
- Port Ess
- Port Geel (Cats 107)
- Crows Freo (Crows 97)
- Port Bris last week 195
- 216 Swans Crows (similar)
- 230s in first 2 rounds

Shit, if the Eagles can get 80 off the Cats at Simmonds, Crows are getting 110 at home off a loss.

Making this a play:
Adel/Geel Over 198.5

GWS -57.5

Damn Lions line out by 10! I was eyeing that -1.5 at home off a loss... Anyone else see value at -10.5?

I like Brisbane to win this straight-up.  Don't look at their overall record, look at their results at the G.

They are a completely different team at home.

Adding Crows 1Q +0.5

Enjoy the game fellas! Could be epic!!

I do too, you playing it? What's the return?

Well, what a game! Not the one some of us were expecting, but a very impressive performance by the Cats. Aside the goal accuracy issue (I don't think they were too fussed by it though - you could see the difference in confidence levels plainly... it was men v. boys), the execution was remarkable. I had to do this last season, and am doing it again: no more Friday night game bets for me. Unless it's screaming value. I think my judgement is clouded a bit by the general excitement of the round, and it simply doesn't feel good to start off with a few Ls. Anyway, movin on.

NM v. Ess 49.5 / 184.5 ES
North coming off a close win v Saints, and Bombers having been smoked by Swans (valiant effort first half against a surprisingly unmotivated Swans). Feel like Roos can easily cover, especially at Ethihad. I'm just not comfortable laying that many points when they have a key out or two, and some other stats: Largest margin of victory for Roos is 38, and Bombers haven't lost by more than 30 after getting beaten by 60+. Bombers have only played one game yet at ES, and the total shot over. Roos have hit the Under there the past few games, and I think the total has adjusted too far. I'm going to go back to the well on a play that has paid several times. Roos have covered the last 5 1Q lines, and all five margins have been by -12 or more. This is the first DD 1Q line, but have to give it a go. Fair warning though: Bombers held the Cats and the Swans to single digits in 1Q.
New Play: NM 1Q -11.5 (have the Over 184.5 already),

Haw v. Freo 42.5 / 181.5 Tas
Hats off to Ian for grabbing the Total when it was high 60s and rain predicted. I didn't follow straight away, and missed out. Hawks scored 87 there last time v. Saints, but I don't think Mitchell was playing (he's back). There are too many unknowns with these teams for me to lay a bet either side. Feels like Hawks win by 50, but who knows what an experimental Freo team will put in play. It's notable that they lost by 18 and 33 the past few weeks against GWS and Adel, respectively.
No play

GWS v. GC 56.5 / 200.5 Spotless, weather perfect
Only the second time Giants have played their home-home stadium, the last time thrashing the Hawks two weeks ago. It'll take a miracle for this injury-riddled Suns team to lose by less than 100 against this top-performing team at home. Heck, they just lost by 73 to the Dees at home, after losing by 120 to the Cats away. The Suns have allowed between 107 and 168 points the past 4 games, with totals 200 or higher. Before the Freo match, previous three games for Giants went over 200.
New Play: Over 200.5 (have -56.6 already).

Bris v. Collingwood 4.5 / 194.5 Gabba
Lions coming home after starting well and then getting thrashed by Port. Lions play the Gabba well, having taken the Swans to the end and playing the Roos well. The identity-less Pies come into town with... I don't even know. Desperation is about all they have going for them I reckon. Feels like an Over in the making, but I like the Lions by a goal.
New Play: Bris -4.5

Rich v. Syd 21.5 / 181.5 MCG
Two tough teams to cap. Have lost money on both, and won some on Swans. Swans are 1-4 1H ATS on last 5. Tigers are 0-5, haha. Tigers haven't covered yet this season on the match. Swans are 2-2 on the past four. The Tiges play the Swans well generally, and some key adds come back. Feels like this is a physical slow game, and the Under comes in. It's the first tme the Swans play there this year. Then again, the numbers suggest otherwise. Swans 4 away games haven't hit under 191; 2 of the past 3 Tiges games at the G hit 225/226.
No new play, keeping Tiges 1H +12.5

Erich

GL today, on the North/Ess OVER but on the Pies tonight 

You too buddy!

GWS 1H -27.5

What a whacky weekend?!?! Lions?!?! Roos 2 goals in entire 2nd half?! Swannies (Longmire has to go)?! I'm counting on the Doggies tomorrow...

Carlton Under 187.5
Carlton ML

Melb v. WB +17.5 / 179.5 / MCG
I took the Dogs when the line came out at -10.5. That seemed like a ridiculous line. I've since learned that it's due to the MCG, where the Dogs have only played 4 times since 2014. The Dees beat them here last year (9 point ground advantage). I like the Under here, and for the Dogs to win by 3 goals, but the venue has me cautious enough to stay away and enjoy the match (and hopefully a two goal win).

WCE v. STK -38.5 / 188.5 / DOM
I have the Eagles -39.5, and this is my favourite play of the week. Eagles are undefeated ATS there, and only lost 1H ATS to Freo. Don't see any value in the total based on scores there this season.
New Play: Eagles 1H -18.5

Days like today I wished the early game started midday. Dogs Dees kicking off while a full Q to go with Blues Power... :(

Adding WCE 1Q -8.5

Live play at 3QT:
Melb 4Q +3.5

Dees haven't lost a 4Q since Round 2... Doggies are 1-4 over past 5.

I missed this by a whisker - v annoying