Well, I have to say that is my worst AFL day this season by far, and it was only one game. I don't think I had a solitary bet that paid, and I put a lot on (especially live). I will admit that when the recent history of these two flashed on the screen just before match time, I had a pang of worry. Unfortunately for me, denial quickly kicked in and I dismissed it. "Hawks one of the more physical teams all year, Port not so much... revenge for the Hawks, especially and if only to start game, etc.". Well, two lessons I took from this and have noted for future reference. First, if the teams have been playing each other close several seasons in a row, they know one another well. And that can be meaningful. So never lay a large line, or play to much juice, no matter what. Second, if a team is telling you something, believe it (borrowed that phrase). In this case, there were two "tells". First, Hawks have played more unevenly recently than most of us realised or would admit to ourselves. Since the bye, Hawks had only won 3 games by > 40 pts, and only one of those was a true beat down (Freo). A lazy, sporadic Swans and the Blues were the other two. Otherwise, teams that could play them physically proved a challenge. I'm still quite shocked that Port could brazenly say that's how they would play it, and then come in and do it so effectively. For the Hawks to be caught flat-footed on that is still baffling. But after early 2nd Q, I should have bailed on the other bets and stayed away until the Hawks could get some consistent offense. Geez, what a doozy. More generally, that match was one of those matches you get several times in a season, where it simply doesn't make sense (the outcome). Accept it and move on.
On to today, and am grateful I did most of this yesterday so as to be less influenced by last night.
I've switched around on some matches vs. earlier in the week.
GWS v. Sydney
Players out on both sides (co-Capt Davis for Giants, Parker and Buddy for Swans), but playing Spotless. Both teams having offensive struggles, and both teams with something to play for, on paper, at least (top 8 and 4). The Giants are younger, fitter, hungrier than the Swans. Swannies checked out several rounds ago, after Crows match, imho. If the line hadn't come in so much, I'd play GWS, and likely they Over.
No Plays / Strong Leans: GWS +12.5
Live Plays Aim: GWS >18.5, Under 180/185
Collingwood v. Richmond
This line and total feels about right to me, so no play. From pure talent/ability, Tigers should be > 4 goals. BUT, these are the Tigers. Lol. Round 9/10 were the only consecutive ATS covers. I feel like the Tiges let up here, but at < 3 goals, I'm not willing to punt on it. If the Pies were a stronger 1Q team, I'd play that line. As it is, I'll be looking for the Tiges to get off to a fast start and take the Pies line then.
No Plays
Live Plays: Pies + 24.5 or more, Tiges ML
GC v. Essendon
Another line that's come in significantly. I've flipped on this on from early this week, for this reason alone: teams tend to do well the first game after a coach leaves. Either they're more jacked, from the Assistant coaching staff wanting to prove themselves as worthy of head jobs (more appropriate for NFL), or players suddenly motivated to play hard because they can't use the coach as a the security-blanket excuse any longer. That's what I think applies here. Dons have talent, and Suns have some significant injuries. Have to play this one.
Plays: Dons +12.5
Live Plays: Dons +>24
STK v. Geelong
Line out by > a goal to 28.5, which I think Cats will cover. But at Ethihad, have to take the Over with two teams that can score.
Plays: Over 180.5
Adelaide v. Brissy
Line out big, to 48.5 now. Other things equal, they should clear that. However, I don't like laying that many points coming off a 112 point victory away. Don't know Crows well enough, and worried they might be a bit relaxed and Lions come ready to fight.
Live Plays: Brissy >+80, Crows > 35
Good luck fellas.
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