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AFL Rd 21

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Posted: #76
Cats -37.5 × 4
 
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Posted: #77
Hey Peekay, didn't see your post earlier, but didn't like the Crows line. Got a better ine live. Think they clear both tho... :)
 
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Posted: #78
Happy Sunday,

Some surprisingly exciting games yesterday in Bombers and Saints almost-wins.  One of my compratiots made a start for the Saints (couldn't make it out if it was his first), #45 Holmes.  It's been really fun to watch the Saints improvement and fight this year.  Similarly for GWS, but with much different results yesterday.  My two bets paid, but netted losses on the live plays I made.  Took several large Pies margins in 1H since they were playing better than Tiges except for hitting goal.  Normally that will correct itself.  They improved in 3rd Q, and then fell off the planet.  Recovered a little betting Tiges hugh margin late.  Similarly with GWS.  Not a team you expect to fully capitulate.

The long-awaited marquee matchup later today, along with hopefully a tight one in Roos and Dockers.

NM v. Freo
Line feels about right, though I'd say Freo's side at 8.5 now (Freo opened as faves (-4.5).  The Roos will be looking for revenge after getting destroyed Rd 8.  Otherwise, too many missing players and weird dynamics for a line play.  Roos vice captain Ziebell out on ban.  On the Dockers' side (Glenn, take note), don't underestimate the Hawks' loss and the extra buffer the Dockers have on the ladder now.  They may choose to rest players and take chances with a loss (eg, McPharlin and Dawson).  While I don't see value at the line given all of that, I love the Over here, at Ethihad once again.  We know that Ethihad is a great scoring stadium.  In addition, since coming out of the bye in Rd 14, the Roos scored 70 that round away at GC, then 93 home in Rd 16 vs. Bombers.  The 5 other matches have averaged 119 points.  Granted, lower-ranked teams, avg D etc.  But all I need is a mid-80 score, minimum from them.  Because Dockers love Ethihad.  They've won 4 of last 5 there, and they scored 96 points there two weeks ago against the Saints (blazing 1st Q).
Play: Over 170.5

Carlton v. Melbourne
No plays for me on this game, just not that interested, frankly.  Blues haven't loss by less than 18 since Rd 14 vs. the Doggies.  Dees have been playing better lately, but are coming off a shellacking by Doggies.  Only stats that stick out to me are the Dees' tackling, averaging 63 to 52 over the past five games and a much higher Opp Goal Accuracy for Blues.
Live plays: Dees ML or Blues >+7 goals

WCE v. WB
The narrative here is worn now, with the Doggies' level of opposition not holding much weight against  that of the Eagles' since the bye.  Appears to be a sizeable advantage in the ruck, especially with Nait' back.  Furthermore, Eagles' have been sickly good ATS at home this season.  The only one they've not covered was to Hawks recently, losing by 15 against a 10.5 spread.  The no-cover before that was Rd 3 v. Dockers.  In between, they have literally crushed each one to some degree.  The Doggies' best chance will be a no-fear attitude and a few lucky bounces.  Otherwise, this looks like a 35+ pt win for the Eagles.
Play: Eagles -23.5
Live plays: Eagles line <6.

Good luck and I hope you can actually watch the late game.

Erich
 
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Posted: #79
I really like that style of write up, good stuff Erich.

Agree on the Eagles line but much preferred the -17.5 through the week. I like the chances of over 179.5 but not playing it. Also note I more often play overs, it's just my thing, love overs always wanting high scoring games.

NM Freo total is always a tough one, i like the over, but it's freo, the most well known unders team in the league, yea its at etihad but it's still freo. I personally wont touch it, but i favour your play. Also freo as underdog, I'd take a chance on it but all my money is tied up.

Carlton/Melbourne, meh.
 
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Posted: #80
North ML Dees ML eagles handicap BOL ALL
 
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Posted: #81
Thanks mate. Guy with inside word says Fyfe will play mostly forward if any of you guys playing goals.
 
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Posted: #82
Quote Originally Posted by Erich777:

Thanks mate. Guy with inside word says Fyfe will play mostly forward if any of you guys playing goals.


Inside word? Thats been going through the media all week, at least in melbourne.
 
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Posted: #83
Lmao Sport, you're right. His words not mine. Literally 2 mins after i posted that the radio announcer said exactly your words... laughed. He's victoria mgr of fitfirst, so maybe a lil ego... ;-)
 
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Posted: #84
I'm assuming my xplanation on "inside" made it so won't post again, will later if i see it didn't
 
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Posted: #85
Fox Footy / AFL need to improve TV coverage. That Freo miss on goal 3Q was only shown from the opp side. For fuks sake, draw me in producers... do a good job.
 
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Posted: #86
Love Fyfe's torn jersey 3Q... it's so Gladiator-esque... Freo has no chance for the flag if they can't score. D is critically important, no doubt, but in the end it's an offensive league (thankfully, otherwise i wouldn't watch... rugby).
 
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Posted: #87
One thing i just thought of for Eagles, if Nait' is back, after what he's just been thru personally, he's more likely to perform well above his stellar avg than at it.
 
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Posted: #88
The Over by the "hair of my chinny-chin-chin". Good call sport. Some cringing offence there from mid 4Q. Happy for you PK.

Live play on Dees + 13.5. Blues will fade.
 
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Posted: #89
Dees +46.5 HT
 
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Posted: #90
Eagles -6.5 3Q live bet.
 
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Posted: #91
Eagles -7 5 4Q line... not likely, but i think it clears
 
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Posted: #92
Smashing it on the last game of the round
 
 
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Posted: #93
Eagles take the flag.
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