Exciting round, especially the first and last match on Sunday, wow! It’s surely me, but it feels like there is more excitement this year than last, coming into the finals season.
Despite my poor performance last week on pre-game bets, I’ll stay with the format for this round kick-off note. A lot more effort goes into the ones on Saturday and Sunday morning, though with mixed results. The “view” developed for those days helps the live plays.
Matches I Love
Hawks line, at -42.5 v. Port, at Ethihad. A bit risky and little “value”, but I don’t see how Hawks win by less than 60. Port is the anti-Hawks, and that spells one outcome for me: smacked, hard. Furthermore, Port beat them earlier this season, so a bit of revenge factor. Finally, Power realise they need to be more physical. My $ says they’ll be more intimidated here; and if they aren’t they score rather than prevent scoring. Over 194.5, as well.
Pies +14.5 and the Over. Pies have competed with the best (within a few goals), and will be looking to redeem themselves for letting Swans get away from them on some awful kicking. Tigers can win this by 4 goals, and it’s no secret I doubt their determination. I feel like the Pies get up for this match, the Tiges not as much, and the Pies keep it competitive. Another rematch, favouring the closer margin IMO. Tempted on the Over.
I Like
Over in Eagles v. Doggies. These run-and-gunners are going to hit close to 200.
Eagles the line. Despite injury upon injury over the weeks and months, they dominate at home. Freo the latest scalp. Granted, Freo’s offense is worse anywhere than Doggies’ at Ethihad… but Doggies haven’t played a true opponent away in over six rounds. 4 goals+ feels about right.
Suns -16.5 at home vs. Bombers. With Hird quitting and Suns’ injuries, won’t make a play here. Too many uncertainties.
Saints/Cats over 178.5. Ethihad. Two determined teams, both with offensive weapons. Prime candidate to graduate to "love" category.
Roos/Dockers over 168.5, just a gut feel. Roos can score, no doubt. Dockers have on occasion. I think they do here as it’s such a focus area now for the Dockers.
GWS +19.5. Buddy in/out (think he’ll be out)… whatever: when the Swans’ coach is saying in the presso that he’s proud of his team pulling out the win last Friday, it’s clear the club does not have a culture of winning/fighting any longer (if they ever have – I haven’t seen it consistently past 3 years, in person). It was the freaking Pies, at home, after an embarrassing loss that Swans’ couldn’t get up for. Giants fight, and I might go to the match and root for them.
Blues +13.5. Actually, this is pure hunch. Think Blues have more fight In them than Dees; look no further than Roosey excusing his players.
More later Gents - Erich
Hot Forum Topics
