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Cycling: 2009 Vuelta a Espana

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Prospect
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Posts: 289
Posted: #76
Hope for the best...

3 plays

4 units om Ballan over Breschel  @ 2.49
7 units on Freire over Bennati @ 1.80
4 units on Casar over Cobo @ 2.46



 
Captain
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Posted: #77
Tonight, I've read some quotes. Some riders expect it to be a sprint finish. The break may survive or the sprinters teams may get to work. Considering Garmin havn't delievered a result, I expect them to be pushing hard tonight. That climb at the end could disrupt things and be a launching pad like we've seen in the first week so two riders come to mind there. One rider comes to mind out of a break.

1 unit Greipel @ $26
.5 unit Farrar @ $26
.5 unit Gasparotto @ $41
.5 unit Casar @ $76
.5 unit Ballan @ $23

5 units Freire over Bennati @ $1.66
 
Captain
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Posted: #78

3 units Boonen over Farrar @ $2.02

Why the Casar over Cobo bet?

A further 3 units on Freire over Bennati @ $1.66

 
Prospect
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Posted: #79
Either Ballan or Casar could be in a small break after the last climb of the day. Cobo shouldn't pay attention to this finish, he should stay with the main pack unless well placed riders escape on the climb.

I hope for a win by Freire and win either Ballan or Casar's pick.
 
Captain
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Posted: #80
Yeah
 
I think it will be a bunch sprint. But I do believe Ballan or Gasporatto will attack on thaat climb. Casar maybe. We'll see. Good luck!
 
Captain
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Posted: #81
This is going to be a long day with Freire over Bennati.
 
Freire tried the break but didn't make it. This wont' come down to a sprint finish so we're basically hoping Freire crosses the line ahead of Bennati when the peloton cross the line.
 
Although, Silence Lotto, Vacansoleil, Lampre and Liguigas are four of the six teams not represented in the break. So they might have something to aim for; Gilbert, Bozic, Ballan/Gasporatto, Bennati/Sabatini.
 
Captain
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Posted: #82

In play:

I've narrowed it down to Fuglsang, Vinokourov, Wheel Sucking Gerrans, De La Fuente.

1 unit Fuglsang @ $11

Good luck!

 
Captain
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Posted: #83
5 units Fuglsang over Inxausti @ $1.65
 
Captain
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Posted: #84
Quote Originally Posted by Bolar:


1 unit Fuglsang @ $11
1 unit Greipel @ $26
.5 unit Farrar @ $26
.5 unit Gasparotto @ $41
.5 unit Casar @ $76
.5 unit Ballan @ $23

5 units Freire over Bennati @ $1.66

3 units Boonen over Farrar @ $2.02

3 units on Freire over Bennati @ $1.66

5 units Fuglsang over Inxausti @ $1.65

 

We await the Boonen outcome. BTW I took your Casar bet - well done on it. But as I didnt post it, it's not counting towards my record.

 
Prospect
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Posted: #85
It ends up as expected.  Freire easily climbed the hill and finish will the pack.
 
Bennati is way back as usual.
 
Ballan probably tried something and ended up pretty far, but Casar finished with the pack ahead of Cobo.
 
By the way, your wheel sucker took it. Unfortunatly Vino couldn't take it. 
 
I'll update later on
 
Prospect
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Posted: #86
2-1 record with +7.4 units

Overall : 15-19 -9.3 units

I'll post my plays in an hour or 2

 
Captain
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Posted: #87
I'll wait in play I think. But at the moment I only have one bet.
 
1 unit Moncoutie @ $26
 
Will be looking at Fedrigo too.
 
Captain
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Posted: #88
.2 Millar @ $51
.2 Devolder @ $67
.2 Albasini @ $51
.3 Fedrigo @ $34
 
Captain
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Posted: #89
Can't pass this one up either. If it is a big sprint, then
 
Farrar over Ciolek @ $2 - 5 units
 
If it isn't, then Ciolek will be at the back of the peloton like he was yesterday.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #90
I had no idea what to bet and I still don't know this morning. The break might get to the line if they do so, I think Txurruka could win it over Moncoutie and Hoogerland.

Farrar looks an easy pick, anyway good luck with Moncoutie.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #91
great topic..but i lost few among these...lemme do it better next time !
 
Captain
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Posted: #92

10 units Freire over Bennati @ $2.60

I'm risking a lot, but Freire is now back in the pack.

 
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Posted: #93
.5 farrar to win @ $18
 
Veteran
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Posted: #94
Quote Originally Posted by Bolar:

10 units Freire over Bennati @ $2.60

I'm risking a lot, but Freire is now back in the pack.



WELL DONE  
 
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Posted: #95
Farrar wins it during a pretty damn exciting last few kilometers. Huge day for you Bolar. Great picks.
 
Captain
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Posted: #96
I for the life of me could not believe that Freire price.
 
Under 10km to go he was still around 2.35. It was evidently clear that Liquigas weren't going to have anyone to lead out Bennati.
 
Captain
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Posted: #97
Quote Originally Posted by Bolar:

1 unit Moncoutie @ $26
.2 Millar @ $51
.2 Devolder @ $67
.2 Albasini @ $51
.3 Fedrigo @ $34
Farrar over Ciolek @ $2 - 5 units
10 units Freire over Bennati @ $2.60
.5 farrar to win @ $18
 

+17.6 for the stage

Stage 1: no bet
Stage 2: +4.85 units
Stage 3: -10 units
Stage 4: +42.39 units
Stage 5: -2.2 units

Stage 6: +1.2 units
Stage 7: -12.5 units
Stage 8: -1.42 units
Stage 9: -9.05 units
Stage 10: +.23 units
Stage 11: +17.46 units

Vuelta Overall:

+30.96 for the Vuelta

If I posted the plays on the other site that I posted here then both would match. But I don't post all my plays on the other site.

 
Prospect
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Posted: #98
Farrar over Ciolek was an easy play.  When did you pick Farrar  18 ?
 
Just wondering why Bet365 had him at some good value knowing that it would be a mass sprint.
 
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Posted: #99
I picked Farrar at 18 with 30km to go or something. The odds then were:
 
Bennati $2.30, Freire $3.50, Greipel $6, Then a few other ones out. Ciolek was $12. I saw Farrar @ $18 and took it. After I took it, 5 minutes later, he was $6. So I got in just in time.
 
 
Captain
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Posted: #100
Leans for Stage 12

Sanchez over Cunego looks a real banker. The pace is going to be on tomorrow.
 
Basso over Gesink - Probably won't play it but I'm leaning towards Basso here. The team factor.
 
Tondo over Cobo - Tondo is a massive underdog, over 2:30. He should not be that price.
 
Navarro over Tiralongo - Didn't Tiralongo have a crash the other day?
 
Martin over Anton - Anton will be working for Sanchez.
 
-------------
At the moment I'm going to be massive on Sanchez.
 
Martin over Anton is a real value bet. It's around 2'40 or something.  My question is why?
 
The first mountain finish Martin finished 14th and Anton finished basically 25 minutes behind. Anton will be working for Sanchez and will drop off - he's not a better climber than Martinez who will try and stick by Sanchez.
 
Martin and Danielson will be together on the climb.
 
So there's two plays that stick out for me.
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