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NBL and WNBL Round #5

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Posted: #26
Thanks again ADU. Was a nail-biter but a win. Looking forward to tomorrow.
 
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Posted: #27
I am actually really excited to watch this Wildcats vs Crocs game because of the Martin incident. Conklin may get a suspension because of the elbow to Martin's face. NBL is yet to decide but will make a decision sometime today. If Conklin is out, the Crocs may struggle but in saying that, Conklin has been struggling himself as well. Line has dropped to -10.5 now and total is sitting at 157.5 which is the same total they gave us in the last 2 games. As I said yesterday, leaning towards the under because this will be a very physical game but the only thing that worries me about that is foul trouble and bonus fouls throughout the quarters may bump the total up. Will make a decision little later.

The other game is Hawks vs Taipans. Now I hit the Taipans last weekend vs the 36ers because I thought it was their time to turn their season around and they delivered with a big 104-101 win in Adelaide. Gotta say I lean the Hawks. I am not sure if the Taipans have been returning home in between games because this will be their 5th straight road game. The other games have been close (with 2-4 days) so I dont think they would have been going home but this game is almost a week after last week's game so Im guessing they did fly home after the Adelaide game and then back to Sydney and then the drive from Sydney down to Wollongong. Anyways, enjoy rambling on, like the Hawks in this spot. Hawks coming off a terrible game vs the Wildcats last weekend. Gotta think this is the bounce back game for the Hawks against a Taipans team on the road again for the 5th straight time. Will check out injuries first. Plenty of time to lock in plays


Cant forget the WNBL game either. My book has no lines yet but bet365 does. Im seeing -15 for the Flames and total of 154. 
BOL forum 
 
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Posted: #28
Um, why are the Wildcats -6.5 right now on Sportsbet but -10.5 on Centrebet?
 
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Posted: #29
Crocs @ Wildcats: Wildcats -7.5

Line dropped. No explanation apart from the Martin injury. This Wildcats team has so much anger towards the Crocs team. Gotta take them. Double revenge, Martin elbowed in the head, broke his jaw and took out 3 teeth. I smell a physical game to start off with and then blowout. Wildcats can't afford another loss as they hit the road after this game for 3 straight against Hawks, Breakers and then 36ers. All 3 games they could easily lose if not go 1-2. Big game, too much in it for the Wildcats. Taking the home fav. 
 
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Posted: #30
Anything for the first game?
 
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Posted: #31
Quote Originally Posted by bet-lag:

Anything for the first game?

Nah sorry Bet-Lag, not going to force a play on that game. 
 
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Posted: #32
Yet to see the incident but heard he got off.   Maybe under in the first half is the way to go



Actually first score type. At sportsbet free throw is $10.  Almost guarantee a hard foul will start the game.   This is great value
 
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Posted: #33
Where is Beal? Late injury?
 
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Posted: #34
Started on the bench but in the game now
 
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Posted: #35
Hopefully perth does not collapse in the 4th
 
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Posted: #36
Incoming blown cover
 
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Posted: #37
Wow thank the hook
 
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Posted: #38
Amazing cover. These lines are really getting sharp now. Wow. Perth covered by the hook although the line opened at 11.5 and went all the way down to 6.5 Adelaide were -4.5 and won by 6. Insane.
 
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Posted: #39
Not touching tonight's NBL game which is Adelaide vs the Kings. Just cant get a good read of the Kings this season and they have been terrible on the road. Will have a play or 2 on the WNBL games once the lines are out.

NBL Season: 13-7

WNBL Season: 6-5
 
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Posted: #40
Melbourne Boomers @ Dandenong Rangers (WNBL): Rangers -3.5

Rangers coming off a home loss to the Fire, Boomers coming off a home win vs the Fire. Massive effort from the Boomers to beat the Fire but have to say, the Fire probably just wanted to get home and Boomers caught the Fire on Monday after they stayed down in Melbourne a few days and the Rangers caught the Fire in their first road game which is always hard to do. Anyways, taking the Rangers in this game to bounce back at home against their rivals.
 
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Posted: #41
What do you think of Kings moneyline? Revenge angle plus the fact they are bound to win soon
 
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Posted: #42
Quote Originally Posted by bet-lag:

What do you think of Kings moneyline? Revenge angle plus the fact they are bound to win soon

Would be a hard play Bet-lag. I have watched almost every Kings game this season and they just have no rhythm or flair at all. They don't have that "one" guy that kind light up the floor. Harrington looks overweight and horrible. Khazzouh isn't getting the same amount of ball he was in the first few games, their assists are not happening and they are relying on Thornton now for scoring. I dont want to steer you in the wrong way in case they do win tonight but they have shown nothing to me in order for them to win the game but hey, its the NBL where anything is possible and so far this road only 1 dog has actually covered the line.
 
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Posted: #43
FUTURES BET

Melbourne United to Win the League.

I know its early stages and always a risk taking futures because of injuries and things like that but we are almost 1/3 of the way through the season and after watching every team in action, this is a 2 way street between Melbourne and Perth. Melbourne's shooting is beyond ridiculous, and I will always back a team that has great shooting to win the league over a team that splatters on the scoreboard like Perth. Only a small league, here is my opinions of the teams.

Cairns - nowhere near last year. Lost some big named players. Can't seem to get it right on the road and their shooting can be terrible at times.

Sydney - do I need to actually say anything about this team. Possible last for them

Crocs - gutsy team with some good young players such as Steindl, Norton and Conklin but not championship pedigree. 

Adelaide - Can be 50/50 at times, no consistency and just don't have that defensive edge that other teams have.

Perth - great team, great team chemistry as well as a good coach. Can definitely see them making the finals along with Melbourne. If thats the case, this bet might actually be a hedgable bet as well. Definitely top 3 because of their bigs and guards as well.

NZ - definitely top 4. Webster back makes a massive difference. Like to see how they do on the road though this season. They have the starting 5 but sometimes think that their bench is not amazing. 

Illawarra - Very similar to the Hawks. 50/50 team and Ogilvy is a great big man for them but lack bench quality. 

Melbourne - new coach, great new coach with plenty of college hoops experience. Holt, Majok, Goulding, Blanchfield, the list goes on and on. I know they are 8-0 S/U this season so far but I cannot see any team at all competing with this team unless they have injuries. If they get first which I think they will, Home court is their's and will be massive. 

I am placing 1 unit on this bet at $2.75 with Sportsbet. 
 
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Posted: #44
Typo, I said Illawarra are very similar to the Hawks but they are the Illawarra Hawks LOL. Meant to say Illawarra are very similar to Adelaide. 
 
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Posted: #45
I know I said I won't touch tonight's game but I just have to. This total has been in my head all day but please tail at your own risk with this game as I could be completely off with these numbers but its worth taking the risk I believe.

Sydney Kings @ Adelaide 36ers: Under 174.5

This totals is a massive inflation due to the Kings allowing so many points vs the sharp shooting Melbourne team. Don't forget, Kings played Melbourne twice. We saw a massive 55+ quarter in the 3rd quarter the other night. When you actually look at the stats, Melbourne are ranked 1st in the league for FG% so expect that the Kings are going to allow alot but in this game, the 36ers are 3rd last in the league for shooting %'s and the Kings a dismal 2nd last. My numbers have this game hitting 160. This could be completely off but when I get my number compared to the actual number and there is a massive differential, I just have to play it. For this game to hit the actual over, you would need Adelaide to at least hit 88+ and the Kings the rest. I just dont see it. I look even more into this total, the 36ers ranked 3rd last for 3 point attempts and Kings 3rd for attempts but Sydney 2nd last in the league for actually hitting those 3's at just 29%. 

Going with the under but remember, tail at your own risk because this league can sometimes be very high scoring..
 
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Posted: #46
Kings looking good at ht wow
 
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Posted: #47
Good win with Dandenong mate although the boomers made it interesting at the end. 
 
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Posted: #48
Good call Bet lag. I hope they hang on for you. I have never seen a team come out in the NBL and put up so many points in one half. Don't forget these guys only play 10 mins quarters and that score line is just ridiculous. The under is toast but I'm glad I hit the WNBL play to even out for the night 
 
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Posted: #49
Thanks Freddie. They sure did make it interesting. Too close for my liking.
 
 
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Posted: #50
Worst call by me all season on this total. Apologise for any of those who tailed this play..
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