CD Newsletter - Week 10

We are on to Week 10.  Thanks Bill.  Full disclosure, outside of Browns Ravens, 9ers Jags, and Lions Bolts what an absolute shit show of games.  I won't be too long winded here as I have no idea who half the starting QBs are anymore.

- Cats at Bears -3.5  (39)

When was the last time the Bears were favored?  Is anyone gonna watch this game?  Line suggests Fields could be back but is only doing walk throughs in practice.  Bagent actually looked halfway decent in the FH last week vs the Saints before inevitably showing us why he's a back up da Bears.  I better not go too in depth regarding this roster or Sac will call for my head.  No lean here.  like at all   

- Colts *at Pats  +1.5  (43.5)

Another overseas game that I will barely wake up for.  I have yet to watch an entertaining game in London or Germany or wherever and I'm certainly not waking up for the GD Patriots.  This has to be it for Bill right?  At least Cashew is sort of fun to watch and Pittman and Taylor back to being relevant.  Total suggests we see some points because if this game was played in Foxboro the total would be 40.  But, like I said, these Euro games which are only a long term money grab for the league continue to mail it in.  Lean over. 

- Browns at Ravens -6  (37.5)

Watson was back last week and was serviceable.  Helped out by Cooper on a few long throws.  But, lets face it, its the Cards and this team was gonna murder them regardless of who was at QB for AZ.  Ravens are slowly looking like a team you do not want to face in the playoffs if you are KC or Miami.  Run game, despite injuries ( shocker I know ) looks to be the best in the league.  Typical AFC North slobberknocker of a game that I'm interested in watching.  Numbers 1 and 2 in total defense in this game.  Something has to give.  Wouldn't shock me to see 17-16 but also wouldn't shock me to see 31-28.  Lean browns plus the points.  

- Texans at Bengals -7  (48.5)

What a turn around from where Cincy started the year.  If burrow isn't the frontrunner for MVP than that hardware makes no sense.  No one is more valuable to his team than him.  He looks 100% and firing on all cylinders and so is Stroud.  This one could be worth a watch as well.  Initial lean to the over but thats also gut reaction to what both teams were able to do last week and this is a week to week league.  Will dig more into that as the week goes on.  

cont.....

cont.

- Niners at Jags  +3  (46)

SF losers of 3 straight off a bye.  Jags winners of 5 straight also off a bye.  Naturally the oddsmakers lean to SF here even on the road with west to east coast travel because you know the martingalers are itching to get their last 3 weeks back.  Not so fast my friend.  Something aint right in homeless town and Purdy looking like the Purdy ODB said he'd be     Lean Jags plus the points.

- Saints at Vikings +2.5  (41)

What more can you say about Dobbs?  Dude is just a gamer.  Now you disrespect this team at home making them dogs to a jeykll and Hyde Aints team that relies on the Swiss army knife to get red zone TDs vs the guy you paid 150million to over 4 years????

- Pack at Steel -3  (39)

Love aint it.  Pickett aint it.  I want no part of this game at all.  check the weather.  

- Titans at Bucs -1  (38.5)

More shots of Levis' sisters please.  Raschaad finally emerging as a #1 back. Only took him 8 weeks.  Only problem is he now faces a stout titans run D so they will have to rely on Bakers arm to win this game?  yikes.  Also, now that Levis has been inserted this team looks like its having more fun and getting more dudes involved with big explosive plays.  A few weeks ago I would have said they are punting on this season but looks like they might still be in it.  Lean to TN even on the road.

cont.  gotta head out for a bit.  be back to finish up.  

cont

- Falcons at Cards  +1 (42.5)

Sunday, the Cards usher in the Kyler era of 2023.  Will he elevate a team that has nothing to play for?  All the talk this season and this past off season was the potential to tank for Caleb and possibly trade Kyler this year or next.  Is that the plan?  We know what he can do, but to play him now is this a way to showcase and drive the price up?  Time will tell but it still won't get me to tune into this one.  What the hell are the Falcons doing with Bijan?  Did they even want to draft him?  Ive never seen a guy with that much talent underutilized like this. Yes, I drafted him in one league so I'm a little biased.  We could see both teams play loose here and hit this over.

- Lions at Chargers  +2.5  (48.5)

Lions on the road.  Much different team than at home.  However off a bye and Chargers have to fly home and on short week.  Bolts still don't look like any semblance of a complete team yet. Home field will not help them any.  Do Lions fans travel well?  This year maybe, but in years past?   Honestly this game should be flexed to SNF but we know that won't happen.  Will we see Montgomery back or will we be treated to another " Gibbs should be the feature back " game?  I hope for the latter.  Should see some points put up in this one.  

- Giants at Cows  -16.5  (38.5)

What can we say here?  Jones done for the year.  Might be one of the worst contracts in recent history and that is pre injury.  Now we get Cows off a loss and we know how good they are off a loss.  Is anyone laying 16.5 though?  Its currently the highest spread thus far.  No thanks.  Giants TT under whatever the number is for me.  

- Commanderskins at SeaHags  -6  (45.5)

On the surface looks like a trash game but with Howell dropping back as many times as he has this season it could be a fun one.  Tough place to play for any traveling team so not too keen on taking a side here.  Hawks off bad loss where they had to travel yet again to the East coast ( the most of any team in the league ) could be ripe for a bounce back though.  I imagine the Hawks ML will be in a few parlays this week.  

- Jets at Raiders +1 (36)

Could we see 2 more inept teams come together on yet another Prime Time game?  Im sure the schedule makers regretted this one instantly.  But, its Sunday night so we will all watch and claw our eyes out.  pass

- Broncos at Bills -7.5  (47)

Russ quietly putting together a decent season.  Denver off a bye but face a Bills team off a bad loss looking to get right with all the talk about them possibly missing the playoffs after they were the 2nd lowest odds to win the damn SB at most books.  Javonte finally healthy and getting fed creating more balance for Russ.  Defensively though, good luck stopping the Bills.  If this wasnt MNF I would be all over the over but I can't ignore the prime time under streak. However, I have a feeling it gets busted this week.  

thats it, let the discussion commence  

The Jets 3rd down conversion rate is 22%. If it holds up it would be the worst success rate since the statistic was first tracked in 1978. 

Their red zone scoring rate is 24%. For comparison the league average is 53% and the 2nd worst team (Tennessee) is at 35%

The Nate Hackett effect.

The Chiefs/Dolphins game last week was the 2nd highest rated game of the year behind only the Bills/Jets MNF in week 1. This despite starting at 9:30 AM EST and 6:30 AM PST. I love the morning games and am glad to see them succeeding. 

@Getty3

 
poor Nate.   Gets out of a horrible situation and gets a reprieve with his boy Aaron only for him to go down and now he has to work with Wilson 

leave my coaches name outta your mouth! (Fingers?) 

Thursday will be interesting if only to see Carolina continues on it's path to the 1st choice in the draft and will it be another QB. 

They traded their pick......

Oh yeah thats right 

EXCELLENT job BigD. 

Great job....

Agree that the Cleve/Balty game could surprise with an Over, but man all things point to it coming U. Both D's will really want to show who's bestess. Weather should be fine.

Thanks for stepping up to the plate bigD 

I still have the Bears game on dvr, and haven't watched yet. I suppose today I will. Interesting thing here is that the Bears hold the Panthers 1st rd pick, they probably want to beat them here?

The juice on SF -3 is -115 this morning. Can it really hit 3.5? Wtf?

You hit the nail on the head about martingale bettors BigD, they are real. The covers nfl forum is just one indicator. 

Will Chase Young lined up opposite of Joey Bosa make a difference? Probably. That d line has nice depth.

Niners SOS #25, Jags #6, per dvoa. Niners are 5-3, Jags are 6-2.

Kyle Shanahan is 57-49(.538)

Doug Pederson is 57-47-1(.548). 15-10(.600) with the Jags.

Is there something we're missing here? Why is "everyone" so gunho about the Niners?

I write this as I'm in a meeting at work. I care about yous guys.

@undermysac

 Is this a meeting where half the people are playing cards. 

My leans/monopoly $ bets:

Browns +6, Saints-2.5, Seahawks -6(large marge), Jags +3 & ML, Cardinals ML(just because, maybe they want to taste a W), Pack +3(it's time to fade Pitt, especially as a fav).

Someone convince me that Denver +7.5 isn't a good bet. The Bills aren't that good.

You forgot Panthers + 4  like Seahawks & Pack. 

@Biscuiteater1

I heard on a podcast this morning that Montez Sweat made a world of a difference for the Bears pass rush. They really didn't have one all year.

Also they had 5 turnovers vs the Saints. Line says that Fields is playing. 

Tough to pick a side on a Thursday night game any week.

The Niners killed the Boys on SNF.....I had Dallas...

Then bet the Niners....0-4 betting their games....

19-6  the others...

They missed Debo...He returns Sunday..

If Trent Williams is a go....Good luck...

@bigred84

 
still something “off “ about this team.  Even defensively.  They will eventually figure it out but this week against the Jags doesn’t feel like the week to “get right” 

we seem to be on the same page again 

The Jets and the Cardinals are the only 2 teams who average more YPP on rushing attempts than passing attempts.

The Jets have been tied or trailing 88.5% of the time, most of any team in the league.

I'm not a lines maker but S.F. - 3 ..really, so just to prove it, i would have had it S.F. - 1 or a pick'm.