CD Newsletter Conference Championship Round

Played this badboy 

Bills +3.5 / Hunt TD / Cook TD   +850

@JOHNNY_ODAE

 I see a 1H under ....full game not so much 

@JOHNNY_ODAE  - Glad to see you doing well

Does anyone have anything pertinent for these 2 games?

I haven't looked into much, been busy.

At this point we can only assume that the lines are pretty sharp. And info by now would feel like grasping for straws to justify a play.

I'll try to find some stuff on coaching matchups. For example Kingsbury vs Fangio...

GL 

Sorry, I've been a little busier with work this week. I'm trying to transition into a new role, and they're asking a lot from me to get there. lol

I'm really curious at some of the matchup edges. I expect Reid/Mahomes to be prepared, but think the better team on paper (and when there isn't any dubious ref involvement) are the Bills. I think it'll simply come down to Chiefs Offense vs Bills Defense, because I expect the Bills to score.

As for the other game, I think the poise of the Eagles having "been there/done that," along with the home field advantage gives the edge to cover the spread. However, I would like nothing more than having the Commanders in the Super Bowl. I haven't fared well int eh playoffs, so take everything I say with a grain of salt. lol

I listened to Dave Wannstadt on the SCORE coming home.  He agrees the Bills line rose to the occasion on both sides of the ball.

Wanny is the average guy but still knows who is winning in the trenches.

@Cranky_Hank

 The Bills run game in the playoffs has elevated tremendously in the playoffs. And no one is really talking about it.

In week 18 they lost a game that didn't matter vs the Patriots. In week 17 they faced a really tough run D in the Jets, 97 yards on 34 carries. 

But in the playoffs,  80 carries for 357 yards and for 4 td's. A healthy 4.46 yards per rush vs a really good Ravens and Broncos D.

I found one thing interesting on the SB look ahead lines.

If the Commanders move on, they are +4.5(-105) against the Bills. And Chiefs. Same exact line.

What do we think of that?

But if the Eagles move on, they are a pk(-105) vs the Bills. And +1.5(-110) vs the Chiefs.

So the books aren't going off exact power rankings.

How can there only be 4.5 pt difference for the Commanders to BOTH afc teams. And no pt difference/1.5 pt difference from Philly to both afc teams...

Meanwhile there's a 6 pt difference from Washington to Philadelphia this weekend in the nfc championship game.

Value on the skins fellas. Value value gimme gimme 

@undermysac

 The books are sharp this week....IMO ...This is why I'm staying away from the Eagles bet for now because I had them winning by 6pts. I just take the over better

Gonna make a couple bets on the SB now. DK has some sweet lines compared to betonline. Bovada blows no lines.

Commanders +5.5(-110) *1.10/1.00 vs KC

Eagles ML(+105) *1.00/1.05 vs KC

Bills -1.5(-105) *1.05/1.00 vs PHI

One suggestion for anyone who is completely convinced that the Eagles beat the Commanders this Sunday. Take the NFC +2.5 in the SB instead of betting Philly pk/+1.5 on the look ahead line.

People are really underestimating Jayden Daniels 

The Chiefs run game this year is last in yards after contact, last in explosive run rate, and last in missed tackle rate.

In their last 3 games they have averaged 48.7 yards per game.

On the season they averaged 3.9 yards per rush which is 31st in the league. 

How are these motherfuckers 15-2?

The Chiefs defense this year has faced a league high 50 qb scrambles. Not designed runs. They allowed 7.5 rush yards on average on those plays, with a 60% success rate.

Grab your Josh Allen rush props 

The only history between these two is the 2 games played this year.

going back the last 25 yrs only 7 times has a team been a fav of 6 or more in nfc champ game,,,,,dog was 5-2 in those games,,,,,,,,,,

— Jacksonville Jaguars have a new head coach; former Tampa Bay OC Liam Coen has left the Bucs to become the new coach in Jacksonville, which means that next season, Tampa Bay will have its fourth offensive coordinator in four seasons. Source: Armadillo Sports.

@undermysac

 Props my friend for being spot on the LM for Philly game getting to 6 from 4'  I felt certain that there was going to be more love for the Skins.

@JOHNNY_ODAE

 Glad you are mending well 

My guess is Skins best bet is to do all they can scheme & otherwise to slow down Philly run game and let the chips fall from there, Hurts had what 65 yards last week.