CD Newsletter Conference Championship Round

@Biscuiteater1

 Correction Hurts was 15 - 20 for 128 and no td's

I mean if Barkley is able to gain 4, 5 , 7........27, 39 yards every time he touches the ball, Skin no win. I will say this, if any team is willing to step out of its comfort zone with some cockamamie stuff it is the Skins.

I'm trying to talk myself into that + 6 BUT man, Skin 4 game on the road in 21 days and I can picture the Eagles wearing them down. 

What makes the Skins so dangerous is the games they win when they don't punt. A lot of regular folks don't think that this is a big deal. I would beg to differ.

And then there are the games where Washington doesn't punt or turnover the ball. They've done it 4 times this year which is absolute god mode.

No team is beating anyone who doesn't punt or turnover the ball, it's impossible. Unless that team is also not punting or turning over.

@Biscuiteater1

 Skins actually slowed barkley pretty good besides the 2 explosive plays they gave up

Think he had 24 attempt for 61 yards if you take off the 2 explosive TD runs in the 1st game...so they can bottle him up...but he could also easily bust another explosive run

In the 2nd game they slowed him down when hurts left with injury

Also hurts won't be 100% skins might ignore him in the run game or not respect him which will lead to easier tackles on barkley

Barkley's stats in those two games:

• Week 11: 26 carries, 146 yards (5.6 YPC), 2 TDs.

• Week 16: 29 carries, 150 yards (5.2 YPC), 2 TDs.

Interestingly, 185 of Barkley's 296 rushing yards (62.5%) against the Commanders this season either came in the fourth quarter of the Week 11 matchup or the first quarter of the Week 16 matchup. They've been able to bottle him up for long stretches, but Barkley has had his explosive moments.

Leans

Skins +6.0

KC ML or -1.0 if it gets there

I am basically 50/50 ATS so that should be 1-1 there

Prop leans

Saquon longest rush o19.5 ...not available to me but should hit

Successful 2 pt conversion...+270 for both games...blind bet both and need 1 for profit...if you have just 2 pt attempt that would be way safer but odds might not work out

Daniels o54.5 rush yards

Mahomes o25.5 rush yards 

Odds are tight. Oddsmakers can hyper focus on these last 3 games. Tough to get an edge 

@dubz4dummyz

Anyone think the Bills offense will not preform better Sunday, did the W last week take anything outta them. No matter how you slice it gonna take some strong onions to go against a healthy, confident Chief team at home Sunday. Am surprised this did not open a little higher. 

@dubz4dummyz

 What do you think about Josh Allen over rushing? The Chiefs are terrible vs qb scrambles. 

@Biscuiteater1

 My mistake was passing on KC last year...

Now this year they might be due for the loss...but  no chance I'll bet Bills  on road vs the goat

I'm seeing a strong game from Josh Allen. This is the big redemption game vs the Chiefs, it feels right this time around.

Allen is superb when not blitzed. The Chiefs blitz a lot. He's still 9th overall epa per play vs the blitz.

@undermysac

 Allen's rushing average in games vs. KC is right around 55 per game.  Post season overall games is 53.  Career is 38 ypg.  Prop is juiced up from career but still short his post season and vs. KC playoff averages.  

@undermysac

 It's a some what high number....he needs like 6-8 scrambles to get it unless he busts a big one...

He been over 48.5 only 5 times this year...but 1 of those was vs KC with 55 on 12 attempts. The 12 attempts is his season high...4 of the 5 overs were on the road

He has 8 and 10 attempts in the 2 playoff games

I think I read that spags DBs often have back to play and leave middle of field open for QB runs

I would check the 3 Previous kc playoff matchups too...I gonna since I actually kinda like it now lol

Wow good find sac

12 attempts for 82 last year

11 for 68 in 2022

7 for 88 in 2021

@dubz4dummyz

 I think I read that spags DBs often have back to play and leave middle of field open for QB runs

Yes, a side effect of playing such a high % of man coverage.  I'm sure they will have Chenal or someone as a spy in key spots, just as the Bills will on just about every 3rd down situation for Mahomes.  

@kcblitzkrieg

I listened to a good podcast discussing strategy. We will most likely see a lot of 12 and 13 personal from the Chiefs to get the Bills out of Nickel. 

Taron Johnson is a stud in slot coverage. He is probably capable of defending Kelce. But if they're facing 2 or 3 TE sets, it will force the Bills into their base 4-3 where LB Dorian Williams gets on the field. He's terrible in coverage. Kelce or Gray would eat him alive.

Bills have beaten the Chiefs 4 straight in the regular season...

0-2 in post season....

Skins 4 th straight road game...

Eagles almost 8 straight weeks at home..'

Weather in Philly 40 on Sunday...

2021 Bills / Chiefs Champ game on NFL channel 

Sac might have mentioned recently but Commanders have close to 90 million in cap space for next year, talk about sitting pretty.

I did not know that

This is insane.

So 4 of Philly's last 5 games of the regular season were at home. Going 4-1 losing @ Washington.

They earned home field advantage in the playoffs with the 2 seed and the Lions getting knocked out.

So since week 14, 6 of their last 7 games have been at home. This will be their 7th home game in 8 weeks.

Fuck em I still like the Commandos 

4 straight road games is  death in  the NFL......

I live here...there talking lot's of shit around here...

Saquon will be  the ending of their season...

Carter will eat up there oline up.....

Georgia monster....

Sold, Eagles -6 for 10 units