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CD Newsletter: Playoffs??? Edition

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Posted: #251

@undermysac

The Chargers defense is a joke.....big difference...

Chargers gave up almost 500 yds last week...

To a joke of an offense...peace_5

 

 
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Posted: #252

@undermysac

The Chargers defense is a joke.....big difference...

Chargers gave up almost 500 yds last week...

To a joke of an offense...peace_5

 

 
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Posted: #253

Quote Originally Posted by Hugh_Jorgan:

Quote Originally Posted by Hugh_Jorgan: I have not made a bet since last years Super Bowl . I am tempted to come out of retirement for this game

I'm only in it to turn over Money but the Head cares not for what the Heart desires.

Shiit in the Spotlight angle.

FADE ATS any away team on Wild-Card weekend that lost the previous game by 14 points or more................Dallas Cowboys Monday vs TB.                                                                                                            Since 1980 the angle is 14-1 ats 93%

 
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Posted: #254

Quote Originally Posted by Hugh_Jorgan:

@Biscuiteater1 You can kinda tell by the comments and Harbaughs press conferences that the team is a little miffed that LJ is not playing.

IMO, and it's just my opinion which is worth about as much as everyone elses on this site, if LJ had gotten paid last year he would be playing this week.

Someone prove me wrong

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2023/01/13/sammy-watkins-hopes-lamar-jackson-decides-to-play/

 

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Posted: #255

Quote Originally Posted by bigred84:

@undermysac The Chargers defense is a joke.....big difference... Chargers gave up almost 500 yds last week... To a joke of an offense...


I don't think the players on the field menially treated it as a real game given that they knew before game time that they had locked up the 5th seed. Players like Joey Bosa were just going through the motions, trying to build up game reps, which a player like him needed. (Coming back from a groin injury.)

I really like the Chargers defensive efforts when they need it the most. Take the 49ers and Dolphins game for example. One thing to keep in mind that Staley's defense -- whether you like it or not; and I get it, you don't like it lol -- is designed to stack the boxes lightly. If runners gain big chunks, so be it. It's meant to yield what are hopefully short gains on the ground and eliminate the explosive games, which the secondary is great at doing. They're near the top at pass defense.

 
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Posted: #256

Quote Originally Posted by 666LES:

Quote Originally Posted by Hugh_Jorgan: Quote Originally Posted by Hugh_Jorgan: I have not made a bet since last years Super Bowl . I am tempted to come out of retirement for this game I'm only in it to turn over Money but the Head cares not for what the Heart desires. Shiit in the Spotlight angle. FADE ATS any away team on Wild-Card weekend that lost the previous game by 14 points or more................Dallas Cowboys Monday vs TB.                                                                                                            Since 1980 the angle is 14-1 ats 93%

The horse still breathes!!!!

 
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Posted: #257

Quote Originally Posted by 666LES:

FADE ATS any away team on Wild-Card weekend that lost the previous game by 14 points or more................

Dallas Cowboys Monday vs TB.                                                                                                           

Since 1980 the angle is 14-1 ats 93%

Some of the regular readers of the Newsletter know how I feel about trends, because I've been saying this for years ...

Unless there is some sort of correlation between the teams referenced in a trend and the results of that trend, then that trend is more apt to regress to the mean than continue as a trend.

What's the trend if the previous week they only lost by 10 points?

How about if they lost by more than 23 points?

What if we go back to 1967? Or 1995?

The trend you referenced uses arbitrary numbers and dates, with no solid argument as to why the 'trend' has been hitting. Thus, it is totally random, and regression to the mean, or law of averages will eventually take over.

Please know I'm not attacking you, I simply believe that most of these so called trends are meaningless.

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Posted: #258

Quote Originally Posted by bigred84:

The Chargers defense is a joke.....big difference...

Chargers gave up almost 500 yds last week... To a joke of an offense...

In addition to what icon just mentioned about last week, take a look at the numbers for the Chargers D over the 2nd half of the season.

They have not been playing poorly peace_5

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Posted: #259

@Hugh_Jorgan

 Agreed. Different flip.

But that Boys big game stench still lingers for me.

 
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Posted: #260

With a total of 47.5 somebody else thinks it's 

gonna be a track meet...peace_5

 
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Posted: #261

And btw - Why, in the good name of Roger Staubach, are they playing on a fucking Monday night?

Donkey balls.

 
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Posted: #262

Quote Originally Posted by iConsciousness:

Quote Originally Posted by bigred84: @undermysac The Chargers defense is a joke.....big difference... Chargers gave up almost 500 yds last week... To a joke of an offense... I don't think the players on the field menially treated it as a real game given that they knew before game time that they had locked up the 5th seed. Players like Joey Bosa were just going through the motions, trying to build up game reps, which a player like him needed. (Coming back from a groin injury.)I really like the Chargers defensive efforts when they need it the most. Take the 49ers and Dolphins game for example. One thing to keep in mind that Staley's defense -- whether you like it or not; and I get it, you don't like it lol -- is designed to stack the boxes lightly. If runners gain big chunks, so be it. It's meant to yield what are hopefully short gains on the ground and eliminate the explosive games, which the secondary is great at doing. They're near the top at pass defense.

When did I ever say that I don't like a Brandon Staley defense?

If you don't know, I've been following this cat since he was a LB's coach in Chicago under Vic Fangio. Dude got a lot of praise from Bill Belichick, and eventually moved up the ranks faster than anyone I've ever seen.

Or maybe you were responding to Red?

Btw, great thread peace_5

 
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Posted: #263

Prescott has a cruise set for the 22nd he has to cancell

7 days B4 ....since they play on MNF he's upset...an_eek2

 
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Posted: #264

@Hugh_Jorgan

 Youse pays your monies and you takes your chances.

That this only has happened 15 times in 40 years and is a function of The Wild-card weekend(so 1967 is specious) I would agree that there might have been a migration to the mean around 1999 if the angle was 7-1 but when should we exspect a rounding of the mean? So it isn't specific to These Cowboys,it is specific to the class of teams for the history of Wild-Card weekend.

I'd count the Bumps on a Dog's Ass if it gave me insight.I love to gamble..I love people who gamble and I'm fond of you.. Whaat!

 
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Posted: #265

Quote Originally Posted by lbcake:

@Hugh_Jorgan  Agreed. Different flip.

But that Boys big game stench still lingers for me.

Fair point peace_5

The media, and some in this thread, continue to try to paint Dak is an INT waiting to happen, but lets look at some actual numbers.

Of ALL active QB's, only Rodgers, Brady, and Russ have a lower INT % than Dak. This is for his career, not a small 10 game sample.

All the talking heads saying that turnovers will decide the Dal-TB game, and then they only talk about Daks recent INT's. This is still a team sport, and the Boys were +10 in TO differential this year, the Bucs were -2.

Of Daks 15 INT's, 7 were well thrown catch-able balls that deflected off of receivers hands. That 7 was the highest in the NFL. No other QB had as much bad luck.

Are Daks receivers open? Of 121 eligible WR's/TE's, Noah Brown ranked 117th in avg separation. Gallup ranked 116th. Not all WR's create a lot of space, but the 2 aforementioned WR's rank 103rd and 112th in catch % Dak has CeeDee and NO ONE ELSE playing WR.

Yes, Dak has thrown a few ugly INT's this year. Name a QB who hasn't? Especially when they have no one remotely open to throw to?

You boys are welcome to keep swallowing the crap being spewed out there. Me, I watch every play of every game, plus the overwhelming majority of stats back me up when I say that Dak is the least of the Cowboys concerns this week.

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Posted: #266

Quote Originally Posted by bigred84:

Prescott has a cruise set for the 22nd he has to cancell 7 days B4 ....since they play on MNF he's upset...

Let me guess, your preferred reading material on the shitter at the linoleum store is the National Enquirer

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Posted: #267

Quote Originally Posted by Hugh_Jorgan:

@Biscuiteater1 You can kinda tell by the comments and Harbaughs press conferences that the team is a little miffed that LJ is not playing. IMO, and it's just my opinion which is worth about as much as everyone elses on this site, if LJ had gotten paid last year he would be playing this week. Someone prove me wrong
In one of his pressers this week he said he loves Lamar, now he certainly was probably miffed with Lamar coming out and saying he wasn't playing.I not a huge Lamar fan but i have zero doubt that he's not physically ready.As for as his future with the Ravens it's gonna be up to him, if not we tag and trade arse. peace_5

 
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Posted: #268

Quote Originally Posted by lbcake:

And btw - Why, in the good name of Roger Staubach, are they playing on a fucking Monday night? Donkey balls.

Of the 5 highest rated national TV games this year, 4 involved the Cowboys. Them playing on Monday night was predictable.

I don't think there's an advantage for either team this week ... but if Dallas wins they will need to travel for a 4th straight game on a short week. That is brutal.

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Posted: #269

@Hugh_Jorgan

Moron  it was in the NY Post...an_shake

 

 
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Posted: #270

Murph must have been a Boys fan. His first fucking Law was mocking them.

 
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Posted: #271

Quote Originally Posted by Hugh_Jorgan:

Quote Originally Posted by bigred84: Prescott has a cruise set for the 22nd he has to cancell 7 days B4 ....since they play on MNF he's upset... Let me guess, your preferred reading material on the shitter at the linoleum store is the National Enquirer

an_roll_laugh

 
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Posted: #272

Quote Originally Posted by bigred84:

@Hugh_Jorgan Moron  it was in the NY Post...

Post a link, Sasquatch

Then IF you can find it, use that article to wipe your ass.

You're not very smart, my friend peace_5

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Posted: #273

@walstreetluvsme

 

IBTB ......... 9

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Posted: #274

@Hugh_Jorgan

 Sammy Watkins has his own problems when it comes to being on the field and probably would be wise for him to tend to that and maybe, just maybe catch a couple passes. clover

 
 
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Posted: #275

Quote Originally Posted by walstreetluvsme:

Quote Originally Posted by Hugh_Jorgan: Quote Originally Posted by bigred84: @Hugh_Jorgan Moron  it was in the NY Post... Post a link, Sasquatch Then IF you can find it, use that article to wipe your ass. You're not very smart, my friend,,,,,,,,,,,,,them sound like fighting words,,,,,,,iron mike homage

Spike

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