CD Newsletter: Playoffs??? Edition

@walstreetluvsme

 I had a soft spot for IM.

Trevor Lawrence is undefeated at night in HS  CFB  and last week....

Ah, yes. I was responding to Big Red.  I just didn't edit the quoted text. (You know how the site will quote both the person you are quoting and the person they are quoting as well.)

If the organization gives Staley another year (which I think they should) and doesn't fall for the Sean Payton trap and give up a minimum of a 1st round pick for him, he's going to get better at what he does. One could question his decision making, but it's all done decisively. He manages the game and timeouts well, and has his team ranked near the top of least penalties per game. My opinion is he's still acquiring his personnel. this last off-season was his first real shot at putting a stamp on it, and then got hit with the injury bug (especially on defense). He's going to ascend.

I'm not a fanboy, though. He needs to learn to balance analytics with the "feel of the game." I think he's trying to find that balance, though. Telesco, the GM, might need to go though. He's just not good at loading the team up with key depth players, quite notably with draft whiffs after the 1st round. Ironically, he does well with UDFA agents. 

He went 9-8 as a rookie coach.

10-7 this year and got to the playoffs. 

Does he really deserve to get fired if he loses his first playoff game otr?

I guess it wouldn't surprise me, when the Chargers organization fired Marty after going 14-2

@undermysac

 He gets fired for having Williams on the field when they were playing for nada.

And McCathy needs to be sacked - same level of leadership as the Clapper.

@lbcake

 He's 30-20 in 3 years with Dallas. 24-10 last 2. One of the best coaches ever to back after a loss. I guess we'll see what happens Monday night.

Jan 1st 2021

Ohio State 49

Clemson 28

Night game

Credit where it is or is not due : The 93% play is Marc Lawrence's weekly "Awesome Angle" this week.

holy shit oilers got the total themselves,,,,,,,,,,had mich st also that lost purely because this nostradumbass guy had illinois before it got zapped,,,,,so thats 13-3 this week, up 4850 with 1500 on the jax/charger over 47,,it was up to 48 earlier tonite, if its still at 48 in the morning im puttin 1500 on under 48, eat the juice and call it a week and bonus if it lands on 47 or 48,,,,,,,sounds like a plan,,,,,,,,,,

 edmonton now 27-13-4 on totals so far this year,,,,over machine 

Let's put things into context. He kept the team afloat with a team besieged with injuries, and most notably with his franchise QB. Their prized FA acquisition (JC Jackson) was out for all but, what 2-3 games? He lost a key piece to interior defensive line, which he (Austin Johnson) was signed solely to help the interior run defense. He's not going anywhere. My guess is Joe Lombardi is replaced. He wasn't even Staley's first choice. Mike McDaniel was #1 or 2 and he was cockblocked by McVay on that one. I forgot who the other guy is.

Traditionally, the Chargers have kept their HC's for a minimum of 3 years. If Anthony Lynn and Mike McCoy* gets 3 years, so does Staley. With that said, you have a top 5 quarterback in the league near the end of his rookie contract, so if they do go after Payton then I wouldn't be surprised. But "inside sources" say that Staley will have at least one more year, and the FO may force Lombardi's departure. If Staley doesn't want to do it first. He's already not afraid to move on from one of his guys. He cut bait with the ST coach last year and brought on Sam Ficken. The Chargers ST play is near the top of the league. So, yeah, I see Lombardi as possibly gone. Especially if the rumors about Mike McDaniel getting the axe is true.

I wanted to post this in the mains, but it keeps getting flagged for potential spam. Let's see if it posts here...

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Chargers 1H +.05 EV & ML - 130

The Chargers have not gone into the 2H trailing their opponent since Week 5 against the Browns, and only twice this season (the other time being against the Jags in Week 3). And this has been true while Mike Williams has been out, which it now the case for the Chargers matchup this weekend.

Chargers ML -140

I don't know... the -2 spread seems like the way to go, but I'll pay a little juice just for the peace of mind. 

The loss of Mike Williams is a big blow, so I'm going to expect the Chargers defense to step up here. According to Tru Media Sports, the Chargers' defense used the most disguise in the NFL this year. Trevor Lawrence vs. disguise ranks 30th among NFL QBs, with a QBR of 32.1. The Chargers defense the Lawrence last faced isn't the same defense he'll see Saturday. Staley has added more wrinkles into the scheme and have settled into their identify as a defense that plays better in zone coverage. They played more man coverage last time the two teams faced. I suspect more zone coverage in Cover 2 and Cover 3 will be utilized on defense Saturday since it's what the Chargers defense does best  (first in EPA in Cover 3 and third in EPA in Cover 2). This is where you can get to Lawrence, who isn't as prolific against zone defenses as he is against man coverage. Lawrence's EPA per dropback against man is 0.36, but a staggeringly low 0.05 per dropback against zone.

I'm anchoring this bet on the hopes that the Chargers D can get to Lawrence. He's fumbled 7 times since Week 9, which is tied for the second most among QBs since then.

I waffle back and forth between whether the Chargers win by 10 or just barely eking out a win (hence the ML play over the -2). While Cameron "the kicker" Dicker has been lights out for the Chargers as their field goal kicker, there's always something -- a missed FG, an un-coverted 4th and whatever -- that can undo an otherwise smooth victory for the team.

Baltimore Ravens vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Bengals -9.5 EV

I had them at -6.5, but won't post that right now because the line has moved up with news that Jackson is out. I still like the Bengals winning by 10. I don't know how the Ravens will put up any offense with Anthony Brown at QB. If they decide to go with a run-heavy offense. The Bengals rank 5th in rushing yards allowed.

Anthony Brown, assuming he plays, is going to push the ball downfield more because that's what he did last week. Bengals will study film on him and see what worked, which was a lot. They forced two interceptions and one fumble for a loss. He did throw for 286 yards but that's where studying the film comes in.

New York Giants vs. Minnesota Vikings

Just a Lean:  Vikings -3 EV

Kurt Cousins hasn't fare well in prime time games, and every game in the post-season is a prime time game. Still studying this game to make a determination and may not even make a play. Will update this thread if I do.

Ludacris will be performing at half time. Both teams are 0-0 when Ludacris performs a halftime show.

So DK has a half hour infomercial on A&E ..oh boy

Get up Getty it's omelette time ..pace yourself today. 

They bought local channel programming, constant commercials.  All over Bally Sports, ESPN.  It's ridiculous

@iConsciousness

Good stuff.

Well written and informative

@Hugh_Jorgan

 Because I value what I write here more than on the mains, I stand to be corrected and want that visibility on here too.

I had to double check this and he was right. For some reason I didn't catch this. I started writing the post a couple of days ago, stopped while studying that (what is now) incorrect stat and didn't complete it, is my guess.  I still like my bet for all the other reasons stated.  

@davebrubeck

 Take 5

@iConsciousness

 Next level stuff on Trevor Lawrence and his success or lack there of vs certain coverages. 

Good stuff 

What gets me is, the economy sucks, no one wants to work, but the gambling market is thriving and growing. 

That's fuckin great 

Why get a job when hitting a 17-teamer is so easy!