CD Newsletter Week 12

that was also a missed pass interference, the defender pushed CD's hands down.....bad no call.

make up call for that terrible illegal man downfield call early in the game.  

Takin a stab at ne/min over 3.5 field goals +105....looking for some drives to stall in the RZ

@dubz4dummyz

Cash at halftime. Nice 

@Getty3

 Sweat with Diggs. The turkey gods rewarded ole dumdum

@dubz4dummyz

Bravo

The Vikings have 4 first downs from penalties, and we still have the 4th quarter to play 

That last Giants td was ex-lax or tums. 

FG miss cost me the cover ...strong leg like Tucker...but accuracy lacking in his career...

Who'da thunk the Pats/Vikes would be the shootout game of the day

No doubt. And the Patriots defense and special teams cost em the game. That's something you can't say that often.

The turning point in my opinion was when Judon went offsides on a 3rd n 12. The Vikings converted the 3rd n 7 and marched 50 yards for a td.

Justin Jefferson is uncoverable.

@BWS77

Cyrax actually played this one over...

So I had Delta Club tickets which was free food and drink and on a deck ground level for warmups. JJ was catching everything one handed. It’s sick. The Pats tried everything against him. 

Him and Chase at LSU were scary good with Burrow...

50 points a game...

Him and Chase at LSU were scary good with Burrow...

50 points a game...

Sounds like you had a great Thanksgiving 

Bigred 

shows you what kind of coach O really was with that talent.

under

an amazing Thanksgiving. Hope all you guys did too.

Everyone else weather forecast on the games change???

Seeing rain in 5-6 games and most over 60% chance....

The Buffalo Bills are the first team to win b2b games at Ford Field since 2016

@djbrow

 Coach O.  

Not many people I would switch places with in life.  I would swap out lives with Coach O right now, no questions asked.

NFL: 56-44-5 (+21.38)

Week 12:

Buccaneers -3(-110) *2.00/1.82

Chargers -2.5(-110) *1.50/1.36

Dolphins -10(-110) *1.00/.91

Jets -4.5(-110) *2.20/2.00

Bengals -3(+100) *1.00

Patriots 1H ML(+115) *1.00/1.15 (push)

Bears TT U16.5(-115) *1.15/1.00

I'm all ready on the Jets -4.5 for 2.20 units.

The Bears since week 7 have averaged 29.6 ppg on offense. They've gone 1-4 in that span, only beating the Patriots who had no way of stopping Justin Field's run game. The Bears out coached Bill, they controlled clock, and their defense looked good vs a struggling Mac Jones and Pats offense that's built to play close games. 

Following that game the Bears traded away Robert Quinn. In week 8 they got destroyed by the Cowboys 29-49 in a scoring fiasco. One day later they traded away Roquon Smith.

From weeks 9 through 11 they lost all three of their games by 3, 1, and 3 points. All high scoring affairs. Their defense tried, they weren't half assing it out there. They are just simply not that good. How long can they keep up the effort at this point in the season? We talk about things not being sustainable in this league, it's just not talked about when we have a potential spot in going from terrible to complete disaster. And that's what I'm seeing here in week 12.

Keep in mind that I'm just talking about the Bears D for now. So where are the Bears at?

-they hold the #3 overall draft pick currently 

-they are out of the playoffs 

-they will be on the second leg of b2b travel to the east coast

-they face the reality of being without Justin Fields, the lone leader who has been carrying this team

-they will be up against an offense who just switched qb's, and who have scored 14 ppg in their last 4 games.

Now, the Jets have gone 2-2 in those 4 games, and we need to keep it real when looking at those defenses. Denver, NE twice(Belichick owns them), and Buffalo. Those 4 team's defenses are rated #1(NE), #3 and #5 by dvoa.

Where do the Bears rank on D? #29 by dvoa. And #31 by weighted dvoa if you you want a more recent menu. And as I said, this is where they rank without a lack of effort. Eberflus is a defensive coach at heart. They simply don't have the talent on their roster. What happens if these guys lose their juice? They just lost 4 in a row, and 7 of their last 8. All while no one can put blame on their offense, especially the last 5 games.

Enter Trevor Siemian. An immobile qb. This offense will look nothing like what we've seen. The o line has been horrible at pass blocking(I've said this all year), but Justin would avoid the pass rush like a magician. The o line is #32 in adjusted sack rate. The Jets D line is #7 in adjusted sack rate.

I mentioned earlier that in the Bears last 3 games they've kept it close losing by 3, 1 and 3. Vs who? Miami, Detroit and Atlanta. Those defenses are ranked 23, 25 and 28 by dvoa. And the Bears played those with Justin Fields. The Jets are ranked #6 by dvoa, or #3 by weighted dvoa.

Don't forget that the Bears best RB Khalil Herbert is still out, missing the last game, getting hurt 2 weeks ago.

Meanwhile the talking heads are making such a big deal about the Jets qb situation. Well I think they made the right move. They are 6-4 and very well alive for the playoffs.

My dudes, this is going to be a fucking slaughter. I'm going to look at some alt spreads today and tomorrow, seriously seeing value in something like a -13.5 line.

We'll look at Jets over sacks, Siemian over pics, fumbles, whatever. 

I don't give a Shiit this is still the New York Jets we're talking about and just like the Tom Bradys playing later,I Would play it Moneyline.Tampa Bay is going to Pay but Tom doesn't run it up on anyone these days and the Jets don't know how to run it up...

Thanks for these 2 Butterballs Sac..