CD Newsletter week 12

GB @ Det -7.5 46.5
Packers games have gone Under 7 of their last 8. If Aaron Jones can’t play that is a big loss for the Pack. GB has some good young talent (youngest team in the NFL) If Love is the answer at QB then this team will be good for the next 5 years. Lions avg 30 points per game at home. They might possibly be flat on a short week after last weeks thrilling win.

Wash @ Dal -10.5 48.5
Boys avg 40 points per game at home, where they have been playing really well since the start of 2022. You don’t have to bet on Dallas, but there’s absolutely no justification for betting against them in this game.

SF @ Sea +7 42.5
I assume that Geno is playing. 9ers continue to be the most talented team in the NFL, although losing Hufanga, their star Safety, for the season hurts. Seabirds better at home than on the road, but not sure they have the horses to stay with SF for 4 quarters.

Mia @ NYJ +9.5 40.5
First ever Black Friday game, with a 3:00pm start. In Jalen Ramsays 3 games with the Phins this season, he has allowed a 0.0 passer rating when targeted, to go along with his 3 INT’s. He might be a complete douche, but he can flat out ball. Jets not only removed Wilson as their QB, but he was demoted to 3rd string. Regardless of what Chris Collinsworth tried to convince America of, Wilson is a very bad NFL QB.

Jax @ Hou +1.5 45.5
This shapes up as one of the better games of the week. Getty’s are 3-3 at home and 4-0 OTR. HOU 4-1 at home. Texans have beat the Getty’s 10 of the last 11 games. Based on that stat alone, I see no reason to bet on Jax here.

TB @ Indy -2.5 43.5
Somehow both these teams still have a reasonable chance of making the playoffs. Good grief.

NE @ NYG +3.5 33.5
Not sure the oddsmakers are in love with the QB’s in this tilt, based upon the O/U total. Danny Devitto vs Baily Zappe. Last week Devitto got sacked 9 friggin times, and could not even shower after the game. Anyone who bets this is a complete degenerate ……. Give me Big Blue and the points, and give Devitto a shower, NJ already smells bad enough.

Car @ Tenn -4 37
These 2 teams play like crippled goats. They need to get off the porch and go own a rented mule. GTFOH. Lots of local HS talent on the field. Facts.

Pitt @ Cinci +1.5 34.5
Most interesting aspect in this game is waiting to see what the NFL does to the Bengwads for not disclosing what was obviously a serious injury to Burrow. Otherwise it’s just 2 more boring AFC North teams getting ready to play an offensively inept game

No @ Atl -1.5 42.5
Derek Carr is in concussion protocol. Michael Thomas will miss this game with an injury, probably as a result of his altercation with that construction worker. Lattimore will also miss this game. Tis a lot to overcome. Falcs win this game they will be tied for 1st place with their 5-6 record.

Rams @ Ari -1.5 44.5
Cards play better at home, and now have the midget back at QB. Rams have 2 white guys at WR. Safe to say that doesn’t happen often. I will take the team with the WR’s of color.

Cle @ Den -2.5 36.5
Bronco’s have turned it around since the Fish hung 70 on them. During Denvers 4 game win streak, Russ Wilson has an adjusted completion % of 86.4 (best in NFL), 7 TD’s and 0 INT’s.
Browns have a really good D, but their cry baby backup QB was not impressive last week. Lean the home team.

Buff @ Philly -3.5 47.5
Depending upon the results of the MNF game, this might be a good spot to bet the dog.

KC @ Raiders +9 44.5
I got nothing on this one. Probably some local HS stars in this game. Check the weather and injuries.

Bal @ Chargers +4 46.5
Chargers are 0-5 in games decided by 3 points or less. No other team has more than 2 such games. Only question is will the owners wait til the end of the year to fire Staley, or let him finish this shit-show. Looks like Bosa is done for the year. Typical luck for the Shrimp that every team they play has so many injuries going into the game.

Chi @ Minn -3.5 45
Team Sac is showing some life. They will finish with a very high draft pick (via Carolina). Will be interesting to see if they take a QB, or trade down and stock pile picks. Vikes have one of the better HC’s in the NFL. O’Connell lost his starting QB and stud WR and has kept his team more than competitive. Lean Minny here

My best Eddie Murphy voice....Look at this muthafucker ......Nice work Hugh 

Ravens are missing 3 All Pro's on offense....

JK Dobbins  5.8  ypc......

Mark Andrews TE

Ronnie Stanley LT....

I know u hate them.....

"Car @ Tenn -4 37

These 2 teams play like crippled goats. They need to get off the porch and go own a rented mule. GTFOH. Lots of local HS talent on the field. Facts."

What's funny about the Pitt and Cincinnati matchup, is that the qb in stripes might be better.

"Sharps" will be on the Raiders. Home divisional dog of 9, they'll auto bet em.

The game right now for the Chiefs is hard hitting and intense. 

Nice work on the Newsletter Hugh 

NJ only smells bad at low tide

@undermysac

 True.....  Funny lines...

Nice work hj

Or as shrimp would say 

Not bad for a closet gambler 

Like unders in a lot of the lower totals. Cle/den 1st. Car/ten 2nd. Ne/nyg 3rd. Good defenses and mostly bad qbs.  For some reason think cin/pit both teams can get to 17

2 overs jax/hou balt/lac....jax/hou already nuked up to 48.5 prob a no play at that number 

For the KC game all u need to check is if Swifty is attending. If she is bet kc and kelce props.

Hugh 

Just to emphasize Matt Nagy's play calling genius, and ability to adjust to a nfl defense...

The Chiefs are the lowest scoring team in the 2H.

They are averaging 5.3 ppg after halftime. They have now gotten shut out in the 2H three games in a row.

I think it's time for Reid to take that play sheet away from him.

This raises the question, for me at least, if Nagy can do this to Mahomes, how involved was he in ruining Mitchell Trubisky's development?

Eric Bieniemy's stock is sky high.

The Steelers fired offensive coordinator Matt Canada. 

@undermysac

 For whatever is worth, KC getting shut out last night, in the 2nd half, wasn't because of the play calling though, but rather poor execution on offense, Kelce fumbles an easy pass, while Valdes-Scantling just drops that superb TD pass by Mahomes. Their 2nd half numbers are also rather circumstantial, because they tend to start really strong in the 1st half, which means that in some cases they just put the game away in the 1st half, especially at home. I only saw the highlights, from last night's game, but the final result seems rather deceiving, the Chiefs could've won the game if not for those mishaps on offense.

Hugh

@Hugh_Jorgan

 Hugh! Good to see you! Good job

@yaongingy

 Yes I saw those drops and Kelce fumble. 

You still can't tell me that the Chiefs are not scoring in the 2H on purpose. There's a problem there. 

I've also read that the Chiefs have the most drops in the league. 

True...

@undermysac

 I wasn't implying they are doing it on purpose, and of course it's a problem they need to address, it rather looks more like a lapse in concentration, I think the Eagles are also guilty of it, but the Ravens are the worse at it in the 4th quarter. I think it would be worse if they weren't able to generate any offense, in the 2nd half, as opposed to them having poor execution by dropping passes or fumbling balls.

In terms of dropped passes, if the Chiefs are first, the Ravens have to be second.

Since week 7, the Lions are 31st in defensive epa per play, and 32nd in drop back success rate.

Yet dvoa thinks that they are #10 overall in defense. 

Nerd disagreement...

@undermysac

Tis why we can not rely on numbers alone 

Gentleman,

I appreciate the acknowledgements

Lamb over 6.5 receptions @1.80 / -125

Should go over this 60%+ of the time vs that comms secondary. Value here before this number gets hammered 

Patiently waiting on swiftys status for the chiefs game....but seriously 

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-gm-shuffle-with-michael-lombardi-and-femi-abebefe/id1458884463

Always a good listen. I like his evaluation of the Panthers.

I suppose that I'll be digging up the "Andy Reid after a loss" trend soon when I get to it.

I'll post it here later tonight 

organ  

these sweetheart teasers are stealing