Teams on bye: Washington and Arizona(note, this is the final bye week)
Patriots @ Steelers -6 (o/u 30)
Yea, that total is 30. I believe it opened 32.5. Zappe vs Trubisky.
I lean the Pats +6, because Trubisky + new offensive coordinator as of 2 weeks ago surely couldn't cover a spread of 6 right?
My only concern is, how many more games is the Patriots defense going to want to come and play? They have been amazing lately, only to be completely absent on offense. They are 2-10, they are done, they will draft a qb next year.
Can the stand alone prime time game give them an incentive to play hard and avoid more embarrassment? Maybe, but we don't care, because we don't bet on TNF here at Club Dirt.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Teams on bye: Washington and Arizona(note, this is the final bye week)
Patriots @ Steelers -6 (o/u 30)
Yea, that total is 30. I believe it opened 32.5. Zappe vs Trubisky.
I lean the Pats +6, because Trubisky + new offensive coordinator as of 2 weeks ago surely couldn't cover a spread of 6 right?
My only concern is, how many more games is the Patriots defense going to want to come and play? They have been amazing lately, only to be completely absent on offense. They are 2-10, they are done, they will draft a qb next year.
Can the stand alone prime time game give them an incentive to play hard and avoid more embarrassment? Maybe, but we don't care, because we don't bet on TNF here at Club Dirt.
Who's playing qb for the Jets? Wtf this team is anemic on offense, and it's becoming a commonality across the league with a handful of teams.
At 4-8, the Jets have to be deflated. There's little to no hope left. Could they muster one last ditch effort? I don't feel it. They were +2.5 to the offensively inept Falcons last week and still couldn't win.
In comes a rookie qb who looks better than 3/4 of the qb's in the league currently. The Texans will be without Tank Dell who broke his leg last game. But other guys stepped up and that offense didn't skip a beat.
The Texans at 7-5 just saw the division title light get brighter when Trevor Lawrence and Kirk went down in their loss to the Benglas.
Check weather, check the Texans road record, I don't think I'd be betting this # it feels weird. Gun to head it's CJ Stroud or nothing.
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Texans -5 @ Jets (o/u 33)
Who's playing qb for the Jets? Wtf this team is anemic on offense, and it's becoming a commonality across the league with a handful of teams.
At 4-8, the Jets have to be deflated. There's little to no hope left. Could they muster one last ditch effort? I don't feel it. They were +2.5 to the offensively inept Falcons last week and still couldn't win.
In comes a rookie qb who looks better than 3/4 of the qb's in the league currently. The Texans will be without Tank Dell who broke his leg last game. But other guys stepped up and that offense didn't skip a beat.
The Texans at 7-5 just saw the division title light get brighter when Trevor Lawrence and Kirk went down in their loss to the Benglas.
Check weather, check the Texans road record, I don't think I'd be betting this # it feels weird. Gun to head it's CJ Stroud or nothing.
I think Carr is out right? He looked real fucked up on Sunday. They called it a shoulder, but it looked like more. Maybe a concussion mixed in with a lack of a will to live.
So Jameis Winston is laying 5 points, and the total is 37.5? Fuck that looks high. Saints 20th ranked offense by dvoa(with Carr), Panthers 30th on offense. Saints 17th defense and Carolina 29th defense. Ok Carolina sucks on every level, but it's Jameis Crab Legs Winston. He's good for at least one pick 6 right.
The Saints out box scored the Lions on Sunday. The Panthers never out box score anyone.
I can't bet this game, maybe the under. But if you were to go ahead and bet the Panthers +5, I wouldn't for one second try to convince you otherwise. I could even join you for some company, cause we'd be the only ones on the Panthers.
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Panthers @ Saints -5 (o/u 37.5)
I think Carr is out right? He looked real fucked up on Sunday. They called it a shoulder, but it looked like more. Maybe a concussion mixed in with a lack of a will to live.
So Jameis Winston is laying 5 points, and the total is 37.5? Fuck that looks high. Saints 20th ranked offense by dvoa(with Carr), Panthers 30th on offense. Saints 17th defense and Carolina 29th defense. Ok Carolina sucks on every level, but it's Jameis Crab Legs Winston. He's good for at least one pick 6 right.
The Saints out box scored the Lions on Sunday. The Panthers never out box score anyone.
I can't bet this game, maybe the under. But if you were to go ahead and bet the Panthers +5, I wouldn't for one second try to convince you otherwise. I could even join you for some company, cause we'd be the only ones on the Panthers.
What a terrible turn of events for the Getty's last night. Losing Kirk for the year, and losing Fabio for the next few weeks.
My question is, what is it about their home stadium that they don't like? They are 8-4 and all their losses are at home. Wasn't Duval County supposed to be intimidating, or cool, or a gnarly place to play or something? Guess it's not a thing at all.
They'll have to visit the Dawg Pound this Sunday vs Joe Flacco. Wtf is happening? Who is playing qb for the Jaguars again please remind me.
I trust Getty, so I would take the points on the Jags for the hell of it. The line is actually heading to 3.5 according to the juice. At that # you have to.
I feel like over analyzing this game would just lead you to nowhere. Bet it, or don't.
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Jaguars @ Cleveland -3 (o/u 31)
What a terrible turn of events for the Getty's last night. Losing Kirk for the year, and losing Fabio for the next few weeks.
My question is, what is it about their home stadium that they don't like? They are 8-4 and all their losses are at home. Wasn't Duval County supposed to be intimidating, or cool, or a gnarly place to play or something? Guess it's not a thing at all.
They'll have to visit the Dawg Pound this Sunday vs Joe Flacco. Wtf is happening? Who is playing qb for the Jaguars again please remind me.
I trust Getty, so I would take the points on the Jags for the hell of it. The line is actually heading to 3.5 according to the juice. At that # you have to.
I feel like over analyzing this game would just lead you to nowhere. Bet it, or don't.
The Colts have won 4 in a row, they're on fire. Now they can take the division lead since the Jags are hobbled.
I don't think so.
Sharps will be on the Bengals if not all ready. And by golly I will be too. Cause I'm sharp as hell, despite losing my ass and money all year. And it's not even monopoly money.
The Colts last 4 wins are vs the Panthers, Patriots, Bucs, and Titans(in OT). This will be their 4th road game in 6 weeks(last 5 games), there was a bye week.
As much as we love Cashew at the CD Newsletter, I think we can adopt Jake Browning. Gimme the undrafted 27 year old who just saved their playoff hopes. The Bengals have juice and at home.
P.S. I have no information that sharps will be on the Bengals, just a gut feeling. Also, sharps got their asses handed to them last week. The favs kicked ass.
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Colts -1 @ Bengals (o/u 40)
The Colts have won 4 in a row, they're on fire. Now they can take the division lead since the Jags are hobbled.
I don't think so.
Sharps will be on the Bengals if not all ready. And by golly I will be too. Cause I'm sharp as hell, despite losing my ass and money all year. And it's not even monopoly money.
The Colts last 4 wins are vs the Panthers, Patriots, Bucs, and Titans(in OT). This will be their 4th road game in 6 weeks(last 5 games), there was a bye week.
As much as we love Cashew at the CD Newsletter, I think we can adopt Jake Browning. Gimme the undrafted 27 year old who just saved their playoff hopes. The Bengals have juice and at home.
P.S. I have no information that sharps will be on the Bengals, just a gut feeling. Also, sharps got their asses handed to them last week. The favs kicked ass.
Here we go again, another Falcons game, and another spread that won't surpass 3 whether the Falcons are a dog or favorite.
This division is just brutal.
Since the Buccaneers bye week, they are 2-6. With their only wins coming against the Titans and Panthers.
Just looking at every thing there is to look at handicapping a game, makes me not want to talk about this game any further. Have at it.
I'm still convinced that Desmond Ridder was a part of an alien experiment. Where he was abducted as a child, and then genetical injections of Ralph Macchio and Ricky Martin were administered generously.
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Buccaneers @ Falcons -2.5 (o/u 39)
Here we go again, another Falcons game, and another spread that won't surpass 3 whether the Falcons are a dog or favorite.
This division is just brutal.
Since the Buccaneers bye week, they are 2-6. With their only wins coming against the Titans and Panthers.
Just looking at every thing there is to look at handicapping a game, makes me not want to talk about this game any further. Have at it.
I'm still convinced that Desmond Ridder was a part of an alien experiment. Where he was abducted as a child, and then genetical injections of Ralph Macchio and Ricky Martin were administered generously.
Vikings are 6-6. They hope to make a wildcard. But if you were on this team and knew that your qb was Josh Dobbs, would you want to?
They will most likely get there on defense alone. Brian Flores is blitzing the crap out of everyone, and it's working. That D has been seriously good. I could see the defense presenting young Kevin O'Connell with major difficulties.
The Raiders are 5-7. Same record as the Chargers. No one is catching the Chiefs in the afc west.
Hard # to bet. Maybe the Vikings -3 is a square bet that wins and there's nothing the books can do about it?
Oh I forgot, is Justin Jefferson ever coming back? And would it help Dobbs? He's terrible.
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Vikings -3 @ Raiders (o/u 40)
Both teams are off a bye.
Vikings are 6-6. They hope to make a wildcard. But if you were on this team and knew that your qb was Josh Dobbs, would you want to?
They will most likely get there on defense alone. Brian Flores is blitzing the crap out of everyone, and it's working. That D has been seriously good. I could see the defense presenting young Kevin O'Connell with major difficulties.
The Raiders are 5-7. Same record as the Chargers. No one is catching the Chiefs in the afc west.
Hard # to bet. Maybe the Vikings -3 is a square bet that wins and there's nothing the books can do about it?
Oh I forgot, is Justin Jefferson ever coming back? And would it help Dobbs? He's terrible.
Have to do it. Seahawks +10.5. Just bet it and DON'T LOOK AT ANY STATS.
That's the only way you can win on this game. If it loses, don't blame me. Then ask yourself why the hell am I looking in the penalty box of a gambling forum for betting advice?
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Seahawks @ 49ers -10.5 (o/u 46)
Have to do it. Seahawks +10.5. Just bet it and DON'T LOOK AT ANY STATS.
That's the only way you can win on this game. If it loses, don't blame me. Then ask yourself why the hell am I looking in the penalty box of a gambling forum for betting advice?
Bills are coming off a bye and the Chiefs just got schooled by the Packers.
No one has done to the Chiefs defense this year what Jordan Love just did to them. The Bills and Josh Allen in their last 2 games have put up points vs the Jets and Eagles, so it's not entirely impossible to have another good offensive output against a good defense. I'd check Josh Allen's #'s vs the blitz, as Steve Spagnuolo likes to blitz a lot.
The Chiefs offense isn't the offense of old, especially in December when they are usually humming by now. They are void of sure handed wr's, something that Mahomes is not used to.
Once again for me, here's a game I'd rather watch and not bet.
P.S. Taylor Swift attended and witnessed her first KC loss of her career. We will keep track of this system trend.
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Bills @ Chiefs -2.5 (o/u 47.5)
An intriguing matchup here.
Bills are coming off a bye and the Chiefs just got schooled by the Packers.
No one has done to the Chiefs defense this year what Jordan Love just did to them. The Bills and Josh Allen in their last 2 games have put up points vs the Jets and Eagles, so it's not entirely impossible to have another good offensive output against a good defense. I'd check Josh Allen's #'s vs the blitz, as Steve Spagnuolo likes to blitz a lot.
The Chiefs offense isn't the offense of old, especially in December when they are usually humming by now. They are void of sure handed wr's, something that Mahomes is not used to.
Once again for me, here's a game I'd rather watch and not bet.
P.S. Taylor Swift attended and witnessed her first KC loss of her career. We will keep track of this system trend.
53! The biggest total on the board. What the hell is this 2022?
We outlined the Eagles flaws last week, before the Niners game. Now since that came to fruition, everyone knows all of the Eagles flaws. And it will be talked about ad nauseum all week by the talking heads.
Will it matter? Our resident BigD all ready made his smash spot play on Dallas -2.5 on the look ahead line. With our other resident Cowboys expert Hugh in the house, I will let them discuss this matchup in further detail.
Before BigRed comes in with an opinion, I will just say that the Cowboys are "the king's of the bums"
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Eagles @ Dallas -3 (o/u 53)
53! The biggest total on the board. What the hell is this 2022?
We outlined the Eagles flaws last week, before the Niners game. Now since that came to fruition, everyone knows all of the Eagles flaws. And it will be talked about ad nauseum all week by the talking heads.
Will it matter? Our resident BigD all ready made his smash spot play on Dallas -2.5 on the look ahead line. With our other resident Cowboys expert Hugh in the house, I will let them discuss this matchup in further detail.
Before BigRed comes in with an opinion, I will just say that the Cowboys are "the king's of the bums"
Titans off of an OT heart breaker. Derrick Henry suffered a concussion.
Miami's defense since week 8 is #1 in epa per play, and by a rather large margin. Even though they faced a slew of terrible qb's, Will Levis is another one.
Big favs have been a good bet in the nfl. This line is slightly inflated but you can't blame the books for it.
It's Miami or nothing here.
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Titans @ Dolphins -13.5 (o/u 47)
Yikes.
Titans off of an OT heart breaker. Derrick Henry suffered a concussion.
Miami's defense since week 8 is #1 in epa per play, and by a rather large margin. Even though they faced a slew of terrible qb's, Will Levis is another one.
Big favs have been a good bet in the nfl. This line is slightly inflated but you can't blame the books for it.
The Packers are humming. Jordan Love is gaining confidence with playing qb in the nfl. You can see it in his body language. He's starting to do jump throws, and those "flick of the wrist" passes. Very Aaron Rogers like.
You may laugh, but the Packers are starting to look like the Niners. Not necessarily from a dominance standpoint, but just from an execution standpoint. LaFleur comes from the Shanahan tree, and has time under McVay as well.
There are very few coaching systems and personel in the nfl that seem to have things right year after year, LaFleur is one of them.
Don't look now, but the Giants are on a 2 game win streak. They are also off a bye. Check their injuries, they've played hurt all year. Who's their quarterback again? I seriously don't remember after Danny Dimes went down.
Here's a classic home dog, on prime time, facing a surging team who just beat the Chiefs.
Sharps will most likely be on the Giants. I don't know if I feel cool enough to tag along there. It may be the right side. I think there should be a lot to look into in this matchup. Plenty of time yet till MNF.
I think that's it. Good Luck Gents.
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Packers -6.5 @ Giants (o/u 37)
The Packers are humming. Jordan Love is gaining confidence with playing qb in the nfl. You can see it in his body language. He's starting to do jump throws, and those "flick of the wrist" passes. Very Aaron Rogers like.
You may laugh, but the Packers are starting to look like the Niners. Not necessarily from a dominance standpoint, but just from an execution standpoint. LaFleur comes from the Shanahan tree, and has time under McVay as well.
There are very few coaching systems and personel in the nfl that seem to have things right year after year, LaFleur is one of them.
Don't look now, but the Giants are on a 2 game win streak. They are also off a bye. Check their injuries, they've played hurt all year. Who's their quarterback again? I seriously don't remember after Danny Dimes went down.
Here's a classic home dog, on prime time, facing a surging team who just beat the Chiefs.
Sharps will most likely be on the Giants. I don't know if I feel cool enough to tag along there. It may be the right side. I think there should be a lot to look into in this matchup. Plenty of time yet till MNF.
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