CD Newsletter Week 4

And the beat goes on ...

Jax @ Cinci -7.5

We all assumed that Hou would be the worst team. Turns out it's a battle between Jax and the Jets. My money is on Jax to have the #1 overall pick next draft.

WFT -1.5 @ Atl

I'm still having troubles believing that the WFT defense is this bad. Gotta side with the Skins (that's right, I said it) here, at least until I come to the realization that their defense is as bad as they have looked thus far. Atl won last week. They still suck.

Det @ Chi -3

TW will be on Det. Sac will be on Chi. Hugh will not watch this shitty game.

Tenn -7.5 @ NYJ

I rarely bet games with lines at 7 or more, but am tempted to take the J.E.T.S. here. The Titans defense gave up 30 to Sea, and 38 to Ari. They should not be laying more than a TD to anyone other than Jax.

Cle -2 @ Minn

djbrow will be happy to know that the guest writer of the Newsletter (that would be me) will be on Minny for the 2nd consecutive week. Actually, dj could care 2 shits less who I'm on, but I felt like writing that instead of an insightful breakdown of the match up

Indy @ Miami -1.5

This line stinks to high hell. Sometimes it's best to swallow my ego, which likes to tell me I know everything, and just bet the way that the line is telling me to bet

Car @ Dal -5

Panthers gonna miss CMC in this game. Not sure they can score with Dallas without him. The Cowboys are better at offense than the Panthers are at defense, and I'm not too sure it's that close. Although, I'm happy I bet this one early when it was 3.5, and 4.

NYG @ NO -7.5

Big Blue lost the leader of their D for the season. Team is in turmoil. With that said, I know that if I bet on NO that Jameis will decide to be Jameis again for the 2nd time this year. Solid no play

KC -7 @ Philly

Lotta points for a team with a shitty defense to lay on the road. Eagles not as bad as they looked on MNF, but need to look into their O-line injuries.

Hou @ Buff -16

Ari @ Rams -5

I've been waiting to fade the Cards, but the Rams coming off their emotional win vs the Bucs has me hesitant in this spot.

Sea @ SF -3

Seahawks are overrated, but the other team has Jimmy GQ. Tough call here.

Shrimp @ Den P

The Shrimp, fresh off their referee assisted win against the mighty Lions of Detroit, travel to Den to play the 3-0 Broncos. Denvers first 3 games were against the NYG, Jax, and NYJ. I wonder who Elway had to blow to get that schedule?

Pitt @ GB -6.5

As I have said each week since we started, Big Ben and the Steelers are finished. But Pack in a tough spot coming off a huge prime-time emotional last second win. It's GB or nothing for me. Leaning nothing

TB -7 @ NE

The only thing we will hear more about than the Brady Belichick game is the Shrimps injury report. Both are grossly over stated

LV @ LAC -3.5

As charter member of the Herbert fan club, I will ride my boy all year. He will only get better

As posted in week 3's thread....

Texans +16.5(-110) *1.10/1.00

NFL 9-8-1 +3.84

MLB 5-7 -0.45

@undermysac

 If you would do me the pleasure of having an in depth discussion with TW on this weeks titillating game between Det and Chi

Love the write ups ...Thank you for the much needed ( you're a funny guy Brother ) 

Agree with you in several of your loans,  and skepticism about some weird lines ...

Glad I jumped on the BUCCS at 5.5 , wish I would've bet more than . $325 ...If the games wasn't on ref/game warden Sunday night football I'd double my bet at -7 ....

Lots of Jax bashing going on from the guest editor. I think it's funny as hell they traded the first of their 2020 draft picks (Henderson) for a ham sandwich and the other #1 from that year (Chiasson) just needs to cross the "T" to complete the word BUST. The incompetence in talent evaluation over 20 years is staggering. 

Sac should hope the Lions bite the kneecaps off the Bears this week. Maybe that will be Nagy's ticket out of Chicago and Fields may be salvageable before he becomes a QB zombie like Trubiscuit.

That Shrimps/Broncos game has all the feel of an early autumn Big 10 clash on ESPNU between Wisconsin and Michigan State. 

@Hugh_Jorgan

 I'm busy now, but, we do have to put some credence in what BigRed was yelling about last week. The Shrimp played with a skeleton crew, and yes the Lions should of beaten them, at home.

I think that they get hit in the face otr vs a team coming off one of the most embarrassing losses of the year so far in the NFL.

If it were later in the year the Bears probably pack their bags. But it's early and they should bring their pride to the field. If not for Nagy, themselves. 

Are you ready for some baseball? Probably not, I like this one.

Marlins ML(+132) *1.50/1.98

Rogers/Syndergard listed

Game 2, good luck 

A's@M's 1st 5 UNDER 4(-105) *1.00/.95

Bassist/Anderson listed

Good luck

Rangers ML  +100  (AleXXXy/NAUGHTYton) listed

I had to sex it up for you guys ^^^^

Shrimps injurys are  fact.....4 DL out Covid last week will return...

D  ran outta gas in the 2nd half last week...Since u didnt see the

game ..2 dropped  TD passes by Brown kept the Lions in the game....

The Lions are terrible.....not sure they show up Sunday.....

Marlins (GM 2), Phillies, Blue Jays, all on ML.

Car-Dal line just went back down to 4.

Is CMC playing?

Hubbard OSU  decent RB for the other Cowboys his backup......

They wont risk him Sunday....long season...

@bigred84

Let's just do a quick experiment, and why the books always end up on top. And I won't even get into the 10% tax(-110) to play their game.

I will use Sagarin's ratings for arguments sake. Note, he gives HFA 2.02 pts. You can look at dvoa and other PR's as well, all in all they are relatively all close.

Bills -13.33 vs Texans. Spread -16.5, public 51% on Bills.

Bears -6.43 vs Lions. Spread -3, public 79% on Lions.

Pats +2.84 vs Bucs. Spread +6.5, public 97% on Bucs.

KC -4.49 @ Philly. Spread -7.5, public 87% on Chiefs.

I can keep going, but you get the picture. 

God bless you, I like all of of them. Good Luck 

Thor's first game in how long?  what could go wrong 

Fwiw, just my opinion, but I think HFA is huge this year. Going from no fans to packed stadiums is not an easy adjustment.

 I saw it first hand in Cleveland, it's deafening. We must remember to not back bad o lines otr. They don't travel well.

2 cents for now. 

spot on    Giants are in BIG trouble 

Only getting an inning from what I read

Ravens should have been up 17+-0 at half ...My fantasy wr#2 Hollywood Brown dropped at least one , if not 2 first half TDS ..

I didn't watch any of that game, but often times the logic of "should have" is flawed.

Example would be the MNF game. Dak sneaks it in on 4th down, huge pileup and the side cameras could not see the ball. The aerial camera showed Dak reaching forward with the ball and an argument could be made that the ball broke the plain. The Cowboys didn't get the call. I can't argue that "Dallas should have had 7 more points" because Philly went 3 and out, Cowboys got the ball back at midfield and scored a few plays later. The subsequent plays often never happen if the first "should have" play does happen.

That make any sense?

I've been on this angle from the git go. Also trying to be aware of which teams struggle more with noise (false starts, or slow starts) than others.

AT&T Stadium is not one of the louder crowds. That place was rocking last night. People are happy to have their football back

Thank you for the reminder 

I'm bout to go 0-3.

Just another reminder why I rarely bet on baseball, and when I do they are very small wagers.

I am simply the K.O.D. on the diamond