CD Newsletter week # 4

Been just thinking about going back to basics...

Just back the better qb.

Tua vs Allen, advantage Tua.

Sos, who has Buffalo played?

Miami is getting points.

The line suggests that the Bills is the play and there's no other way around it. Only a square ass idiot would take Miami with this line. Especially after they scored 70.

I might just say fuck the book, Dolphins win

BTW, that week 5 line on the Jags is +5.5, I got shitty value at +3 pre season. I have a feeling that it will get back there after the Bills lose and Jags win. It's still an outstanding spot for the London Jags. Maybe I'll blast that bet again next week.

If it was snowing and windy....I would love the Bills..

75 and Sunny.....

Wake uppppppppppppp

@undermysac

 I'm with ya on the better qb thingy but this game will come down to who runs better and who gets most pressure on qb. jmo 

If you have watched any Dolphins games this year, there is no getting pressure on Tua. I'm serious when I say this, it's nearly impossible. 

The system that McDaniels has created has the ball coming out as soon as the back leg of Tua hits the ground. On a 3 step drop he will never get sacked. 

It's almost as if he isn't even reading the defense. It's 1 2 3, throw, complete. With a lot of yac in that offense. 

Defensively the Phins aren't all that great. But Josh Allen is definitely more turn over prone.

I'll look at the running stuff later, that's always important in my book. Just wondering how much the Bills can run if playing from behind?

Just noticed the Niners have scored 30 pts exactly in all three games. 

Played the Lions on ML earlier.....will get a thread up ...just wanted Sac to have this play 

Dan Marino like.  

Taking

o.5 sacks for Aiden Hutchinson -115

1u

GL ladies  

that was easy 

@bigred84

This is the last time I use your computer when you use the bathroom 

For fucks sake, I was wanting to bet the Lions all day. But got detoured to the bar after work. First time looking at this thread.

Just turned on the game 5 minutes ago.

Goff>Love, simple as that

@trainwreck66

 work one sucks.....

Huchinson 

YTD  3-7  +1.23u

Pack Lions u58.5 <—————— 

4 team 13 pt tease   

Lions Pack u58.5

Phins Bills o40.5

Panthers +16.5

Broncos +10

6.5u to win 5u

one extremely sweaty leg down.  3 to go   

L5 years in college football, when closing line is -3 home team, the home team cover rate is 55-66-8

L5 years in college football, when closing line is -7 home team, the home team cover rate is 49-57-9

L5 years in NFL, when closing line is -3 home team, the home team cover rate is 26-48-4

L5 years in NFL, when closing line is -7 home team, the home team cover rate is 15-23-0

@OlDirtyBaztid

 Ah yes, sports insights. Another good website that vanished. Poof. There were a handful of other mlb sites that disappeared too.

Most recently in the nfl, Football Outsiders. Aaron Shotz is on another site now but the format sucks, and a subscription is required for all his stuff.

My point being about paying attention to all the bet % stuff is that whether it's accurate or not, does it really matter?

I mean there are a ton of fuckers who just fade the public blindly. So there is reverse line movement all the time. Does that really matter when they are on the wrong side of the handicap?

The worst outcomes are when dumb $ follows dumb $.

I try and keep it simple comparing offenses and defenses, o-lines d lines,injuries,SPOT, line movement and cost's. And that my friend is how i manage to be one of the best 50% capers this site has ever seen.

love it

Word is out Watson may not play against the Ravens. 

Someone talk me off the Bucs +3.5, thinking I have to go back to that well again.

So my buddy who listens to podcasts habitually, think he literally listens to every one you can think of says those guys ALL are picking the Bills.

I see where this is going. The Dolphins are a public dog that cashes, and there's nothing that the books can do about it. Fortunately for the books, they will take all the "smart" $ on the Bills. And that out weighs public money.

This is happening, convince me otherwise