CD Newsletter Week 7

@lbcake

 more than likely...

The Shrimp keep playing like this and his heart won't make it another 3 months

@bigred84

 Your Ravens are going to come out of the bye firing on all cylinders. They should smash anyone they got on deck.

Another gem from the NY press :

Other than immediate family members and possibly Mike Lafleur, raise your hand if you knew someone named Mike White was actually the Jets backup QB. 

Vikings....

Tigger ... I sell flooring n manage the store 6 days a week...

Root for the local HS team n my Ravens....HS team got trampled Friday night 31-0...

Then to watch the Ravens play shitty defense in the 2nd half was upset to say the least...

Over 500 yds allowed 2 of the last 3 weeks is very concerning...Held Herbert n the Chargers

to 200 yds a week ago...but the wind helped them out then...Vikings game will tell me a lot

about how the year plays out after that game...Im not that upset they lost..Im upset at 

how they lost....

@Getty3

 Huge problems at LB for the Jets.

As we know CJ Mosley missed the Pats game after a bye, sore hammy. He's considered great, but PFF gives him a ranking of only 35.7. He'll HAVE to play vs Cinci. They lost Jamien Sherwood for the year, tore his Achilles. 59.7 rating by PFF which is awful, but he's the best Jets rated LB. Quincy Williams also left last game with a head injury and is questionable. Blake Cashman left last game with a groin and is questionable. 

This is the worst LB core in the NFL and they are all hurt. I think that they'll be bringing in guys off the street and practice squad.

I just did my #'s for the Bengals/Jets 1Q. I have Bengals -5.85. And that's without adjusting for any of these injuries including QB.

Before you guys tell me, I know that it's a terrible spot to back the Bengals coming off the big win vs the Shrimp. And the Jets just got embarrassed. 

I think that there's an opportunity here on the 1Q

@bigred84

 I wish you,your team, and your health nothing but the best 

The Jets D is #32 in ppg allowed in the 1Q, 7.3 ppg. Last 3 games allowing 9 ppg.

Bengals D is #3 in ppg allowed in the 1Q, 2 ppg. Last 3 games allowing 0 ppg.

Jets offense clearly #32 with 0 ppg.

Bengals offense #18 at 3.4 ppg in the 1Q. Last 3 games scoring 5.7 ppg which puts them at #7 in that span.

So Bengals have won every toss except in the Ravens game. They differed every time. 50% chance they kick off.

The Jets have won only 2 coin tosses and differed both times. They have gotten the ball first every time except 1 game. They lost every 1Q by 3 or more points and have one 0-0 tie, first game of year.

I'll take my chances despite the Jets probably getting the ball first, they have all year and haven't done shit with their first drive. Both kickers are at 75% this year.

Bengals 1Q -2.5(-115) *3.00/2.61

Bovada. DK is -120. The let down spot is keeping me from making it a 5 unit play. If the Jets hit +3.5 I will consider a middle.

It was said years ago that less than 15% of NFL games fall within 4 points in either direction of the median of open/closing spread. Which is why teasers win the house money. Which is why, as off as it may seem, that a lousy half a point here and there really doesn't matter as much as people think. Of course everyone only remember when they lost or pushed because they placed their wager too late and lost that half point but the truth is there are so many other times where it really doesn't matter: Even the 2.5/3/3.5 or 6.5/7/7.5 crossings.

He's the Jets OC, younger brother of the Packers coach. But you and I know there is only 1 Lafleur. Numero dix pour les Habitants de Montreal.

Im pretty sure the Packers were +3.5 12 hours ago and are now +6.5  -111 at Pinny 

@trainwreck66

 Game is off the board for me. 
What happened?

just call me Nostradamus 

@Hugh_Jorgan

Covid issues...Davante Adams out

@packersbackers

 Adams is the only WR that is worth 3 points.

Not saying he is that much better than the other top tier WR's, only that he is by far the most valuable to his team

I was going to have a max bet on Ari -3.5

I may just bet GB now, as Rodgers and company might just play this game as if it's their SB

2019 28%

2020 30%

2021 37%

Target share taken by Adams over the past 3 years. Rodgers seems to have a bit of a bond with Lazard, but he's married to Adams. This will be interesting.

FART  ...The only other fantasy WR on my roster this week is Manny Sanders ( Hollywood Brown on bye ) 

FU COVID 

Played the Lions at +3.5  -112...Wish me luck