CD Newsletter Week 8

OK ATL starter TBD

@barneybeans

 Bovada is offering a line without listed starters. DK is offering a line with Greinke only. Betonline no line. Easy to know which books are being careful here. The exposure is huge, if you catch wind of Atlanta's starter/opener before said book can make a move, well...

At baseballpress they have Drew Smyly listed as the Braves starter, but that's tentative. Could change any minute. 

For the most part, looks like a bullpen game either way.

But now FD just took it down (They had STL pitcher TBD). This delay and shenanigans for ATL starter is screwing OVER bettors by a 20 cents or maybe even ½ a run. Sucks - who do you not have this figured out soon after the Morton injury or at least after last night's final?

Betonline just posted, Dylan Lee starting for Atlanta

I followed this dude coming up with the Marlins. Huge strike out pitcher, goes after guys. But damn is he raw to be opening a WS game. 

Tonight's game is probably the biggest game of the series except for potential game 7. For ATL to not have a starter announced is completely irresponsible to the betting public. The nerve!

I agree with you on pulling Anderson last night, it was only a 1 run lead, facing the top of the order and that stumpy cheating sticky bastard at leadoff, maybe it wasn't all that bad of a move and save Anderson for a full blown game 6 or 7 with Morton out.

Either way it's 5 hours before game time and you don't know who's starting? This should make everyone on the planet nervous as hell.

Lee is starting

FUK!

Right now would be a good time to watch how all the books are going, all on one screen live, but SBR sold out to US books and their odds site is now absolutely worthless. They are wiping out all traces of offshore because FD/DK/Caesars/Will Hill all bought in.

Taking

HOU/ATL OV 8½ -122 4U

@barneybeans

 I'm formulating my plays now, going to project lineups best I can. Hopefully Joc Pedersen plays and Soler sits.

Greinke is a fly ball throwing finnese guy, Lee avg FB/GB and avg velo. Has 3 pitches, FB, slider, and a change up that's not that much slower than his FB and slightly faster than his slider.

Bullpens are going to get burned out in this game, regardless how they pitch. Shit will probably get out of hand though. BWS was onto something. 

I hate overs but I'll be doing my best Cyrax impression shortly. 

Going ham:

Astros score 1st inning(+205) *.50/1.03

Braves score 1st inning(+205) *.50/1.03

Astros 1st 5 TT OVER 2.5(+120) *1/1.20

Braves 1st 5 TT OVER 2.5(+120) *1/1.20

1st 5 innings OVER 4.5(-115) *1.15/1.00

Alt total OVER 9.5(+125) *.50/.63

I took the O9 (alternate) hours ago. Braves starter didn't factor in for me. That just leaves....

What odds did you get? If you post Euro odds I will be completely confused

Ted Barrett behind the dish is a hitters ump

Post #294

(2.08)     I use the term 'decimal odds'. European sounds too metric-y.

Easier for the lay person to understand. Just multiply your wager times 2.08.

i.e. 100 buck wager - 100 x 2.08 =208 return (profit of 108). It always includes your wager in the return.

i.e  1.45 odds - 75 buck wager - 75 x 1.45 = 108.75 (profit of 33.75)

If I want to go from American to decimal   i.e  -120        100/120 = 0.833 or 1.83 decimal odds (always add 1 to it)

@lbcake

 So over 9 at +108, nice bet 

I have 9 -110... gonna ride with you guys.  Still chilly down there tonight, clear but I'm seeing some gusts in the upper teens, not sure of direction.  Still believe the bats are ready to explode 

lbcake, you seem like a swell guy...  but keep the math out of here.  Us Americans only do math when we are figuring out many calories we are stuffing into our fat faces   

The game total is 9 +100 everywhere except Heritage is still posting 8½ OV -123

Got the exact Braves lineup that I wanted. Joc hitting in the 5 hole. D'arnoud moves up to 6 cause he's hot, Duvall drops to 7.

Astros are hitting Greinke 8th, I like it. The man is a good hitting pitcher, .225/.598 in his career. And when it comes time for pinch hitters, they will have someone better than Maldonado 1 batter earlier.

@BWS77

 Wind 9mph from the first base line to the left field foul pole. Yesterday we had a 6mph wind straight across. Nothing great but it won't hurt. It's still relatively humid in Atlanta despite the cold. Humidity is good for the ball to travel better.

Adding on

HOU/ATL F5 OV 4½ -114 3U

@barneybeans

 The public is distraught that the final score was 2-0 yesterday, they are blindly betting the under on a bullpen game. It doesn't get better than this.

The newsletter has now morphed into a short story; on it's way to a novella.

1.99 and lower use a calculator/converter - Just know as a guide:

1.91 is -110

1.95 is -105 and

1.90 is -111

use https://www.oddsconverter.net/ and you'll also get implied prob % without having to hit your spreadsheet.