CD Newsletter Week 8

In honor of the fallen - May everyone sweep their boards 

Shrimps -1.5 vs The Buccos (o/u45.5)

this is actually going to be a fun one. thank god we don't gotta watch the fuckin denver broncos on primetime football this week! we've seen quite the movement on this line already, where the shrimps actually opened up at 2.5 point dogs. recency bias will probably have most asking why, but i thought the number was fair given the shrimps second half meltdowns and struggles to keep a lead. how the hell do you only complete nine passes in an nfl game? as for the bucs, i think we've seen their floor - can only go one way but up, right? i would expect a primetime game to shift some serious focus within the bucs org as well as with mr. brady. how do you lose to panthers after they totally dismantled their team, inculding trading their best player, and start their third string qb? did you know that the bucs are just the second team in killersports sdql history, (34 years), to lose as a road fav. of more than 7 points in two straight games? what's even crazier is that bucs have had the third easiest overall sos againnst defenses so far. the good news is the ravens are 31st in defensive epa since week 2. lamar looks kinda lost without his weapons all there, and if there's no mark andrews.. look out. he hasn't practiced today and was nowhere to be found last weekend. this feels like a game where brady can throw the ball a bit more as the ravens don't bring much pressure. i like the bucs to pull their heads out of their asses here. 

Broncos vs Jaguars -2.5 (o/u 39.5)

i could've sworn i said the broncos weren't on primetime but it feels like the NFL managed to still somehow get them a primetime slot. here we have the battle of the stupids. a team that can't figure out how to get into the end zone and a team that knows how to give it away once they get in the end zone. i have a feeling this match up is just what the people over in London were asking for - two shit teams with the same losing record and same ats losing record. just when you thought the qb play couldn't get any worse from the broncos, they present to you... Brett Rypien. wilson holds an EPA per play of a whopping -.09 this year and Rypien with -.138 from sunday's showing. the hilarious part was i actually bet the broncos last weekend thinking it couldn't possibly get much worse! good news for rypien is that jacksonville doesn't do that well stopping the run, so they can find success if gordon if butterfingers can hold on to the ball, or newly acquired latavius murray. tlaw has had a brutal couple match ups against opposing defenses and this weekend isn't going to get any easier. expect the same type of game match ups they faced like they did against the eagles. i just don't see how he's going to move the ball around well against this stout broncos d. either way, at the end of this game we are going to have one team very upset with their coach. how funny would it be to see hatchett canned before the plane boarded back home, though? big pass for me here unless i see a good field goal prop available. 

Bears vs. Dem Boyz +9.5 (o/u42.5)

i will say that the bears looked damn impressive last night against the patriots. fields is finally able to focus on what he's good at, and make improvements, vs. prior coaches trying to drive something that isn't there. he kept the patriots guessing with his legs, but he also made some halfway decent passes. it's going to be real interesting to see if they can have that same success against the cowboys. if the bears were smart, they would try to mimmick every play from the eagles game on how they kept parsons busy. can anyone say they were surprised with dak's first game back? he gets a mulligan in my opinion being off the thumb injury. the caveat is the two headed monster - pollard and zeke. they could create a nightmare for the terrible rush d that the bears possess which won't rely on dak to throw much. so, if this is a slower paced game, will the cowboys be able to cover such a big number? witha healthy dak, i would say absolutely. i'm still not convinced on the bears. if anything, i would say the under looks good. could see a lot of running coming from both teams. 

Da Raidazzz -2 vs Who Dat (o/u 50)

No surprise here that the line got steamed from a pick em to -2, with some shops trending up. who even plays for the saints anymore? the saints go through a carousel of injuries and replacements throughout the year that makes it awfully difficult to make an identity. does anyone even know who the hell their qb is yet? whether we get crabs legs or the red rocket, we can expect them to air things out. olave has been an absolute stud and can expose the weak secondary of the raiders. the qb's have got to make the passes, though. wouldn't shock me to see kamara light them up in receiving yards, too. perhaps a look at his reception and receiving props is in order? on the flipside, i don't see how the saints will stop josh jacobs. the man has been on a mission, which has been shocking because we didn't even know if he would be their starting rb at the beginning of the season. with some solid movement from jacobs, the pass game should open up and we might finally see a breakout from renfrow. we also can't forget about the paparazzi killa, devonta adams. this could come down to whoever has the least amount of turnovers and i expect nothing short of a shootout with two bottom five pass d's in the league. don't let the 0-3 road record fool you for the raiders, either - losses to the chargers, chiefs, and titans for a total of 8 points combined between all three losses. like the raiders here

Panthers vs Falcons -4.5 (o/u 41)

pj walker comes to save the day, but can he do it again against one of the best ats teams in the league? has the falcons luck run out covering the number? if the falcons continue to try to run the ball, they may just see the same impact that the bucs did. and judging by mariota's metrics, it doesn't seem like there's much more of a gameplan.. gotta give kudos to mariota, though. he has risen from the dead and has been playing well over expectations with basically nothing. regardless of the panthers misfortunes and ineptitude, they still limit opponents to 4.1 yards per rush and are top ten in preventing red zone conversions to td's. so.. how do the falcons score? who's even a falcons wr? beats me. can mariota even throw? his ranking is second to last in passing yards. we can't really look back on the panthers metrics because they're severely altered from baker's doing. but i will say i don't feel the falcons should be this big of favorites to anyone, which is why they haven't been all year. i'll be all over the panthers and i think some people agree who already stampeded 6.5 down to our current number. wouldn't doubt seeing this hit 3 by kickoff. 

Steelers vs. Eagles +10.5 (o/u 43)

fly eagles, fly! holy shit, did anyone predict the eagles looking this dominant? my hat goes off to them, man. i'm still not fully on board with hurts yet but if today were the last weke of the season, he might get mvp. so here we have two teams on totally different ends of the totem pole. one is the most dominant team in the nfc and the other is still trying to find a groove and pace that works for the team without handing the ball off to najee every play of the game. the eagles find ways to exploit defenses early and run up the score by halftime. so, with that being said - did you know that the eagles are 0-5 ats in 2h this year? that is their one achilles heel, in my opinion. they slow roll the game out and can put themselves in some less than desirable situations, much like what we saw against their last three match ups. there's no doubt that smith and aj are gonna get some fantasy points this weekend. you gotta hand it off to tomlin, though. for what they lack on offense, they make up for on d. when we all thought miami was going to run up the score sunday night, not a single td was scored from miami after the first quarter. credit to his in game adjustments on d. as dominant as the eagles have been, they haven't closed the game with a two digit lead all but twice this season - once against the skins and once against the vikes, who are both subpar to the steelers d. pickett has been getting more comfortable throwing the ball and finding his groove, but it comes with a price. he is usually down and he can never actually come back without making a turnover. i can see the eagles shutting down harris, and bringing mass amounts of pressure to pickett which can lead to the same problems he's been facing. this could be real similar to the cowboys game. gun to my head, i would lay the points. but that 2h stat gets me too nervous to do anything with this game.

Fins -3 vs Lions (o/u 51.5)

it's kinda difficult to read the lions because so many key players keep getting pulled from the game or just don't play. as a swift owner in fantasy, i'm pissed. after seeing them hang tough the first three games, and seeing them get blown out the last three, it's easy to fall off the lions magic band wagon. they for sure have the tools to stay competitive, but at this point it seems like there isn't urgency and they're babying these guys. for the lions to beat the fins, they cannot turn the ball over. this has the makes of a shootout, and this will be the easiest defense that miami has faced by a mile. both of these teams have qb's who like to sling it and both have bottom 10 pass d's in the league. tua, like the lions, has every offensive piece anyone could ask for. mostert, hill, and waddle should all get theirs. i just feel like detroit isn't as bad as what meets the eyes, though. should the dolphins really be laying points on the road? i like the lions straight up here if st brown is cleared to play

Cardinals vs. Vikings -3.5 (o/u 49)

just when we thought kingsbury was getting axed, the cards come through with a big w. d hop coming back couldn't have been at a better time seeing as hollywood went down. while he didn't get a td, he cleared over every other wr stats by over 100 passing yards and almost ten targets more than the next receiver. benjamin has been a breathe of fresh air replacing connor as well, as he can both catch and run. the cards are going to need to keep that intesity going against the nfc north's top dog, the vikings. for years these guys had all the talent in the world and settled for mediocrity. the vikings have had an absolute cakewalk of opposing defenses, however. we saw what the eagles did and to be totally honest, miami put up a helluva fight. somehow the vikings won by 8 and only had 234 yards vs. miami's 458! fins just couldn't get any luck going their way. i don't think we will see that with a very experienced set of wr's from the cards. and we know that cousins doesn't like pressure. unfrotunately for him, the cards blitz more than the dolphins. this one comes down to composure from captain kirk. with zona getting back to fully healthy, cardinals for me. this game originally opened up at 6.5, so i think others feel the same

Patriots -1.5 vs. Jets (o/u 40.5)

jets have been the best thing kept secret all year up until last weekend. now they're getting some spotlight for the first time in how many years? i really like what they're doing, but i think they've taken advantage of situations early and they're gonna come back down to earth. the market still doesn't seem to like them as this line opened up at a pick and was steamed to the patriots who just got rolled by the bears last night. no doubt, the patriots were exposed by the run last night, but unfrotunately for the jets, their star rb rookie is donezo for the season. they picked up robinson but doubt he knows the playbook by then. zach wilson is gonna have to throw it a bit on sunday. not good for a team that is 23rd in passing yards against a d allowing only 208 passing yards per game. i honestly don't know what to think of this game. which qb shows up for the patriots? does mac jones or the zapster play? there's too many questions for me about the pats for me to want to back them. gut feeling is that billy outsmarts the jets but i dunno if i can put money on it. 

The Tits -2 vs. Texans (o/u 40.5)

tennessee surprised many indy backers when they thought the colts finally turned a new leaf. vrabel's record out of the bye and with extra time is stellar, if you didn't know. but we now have equal rest. i think everyone is shocked by how lovie is doing overall. they've been able to keep games competitive for the most part and he's making things happen with absolutely nothing, courtesy of o'brien. i was listening to how lovie runs these two shell covers and no one is able to tell when he will actually start running these plays, which makes it difficult to pass on him at times. the issue is that tennessee doesn't really pass and henry might be in for his biggest game of the year against the worst defensive team against the run. seeing how tennessee doesn't have the same offensive strength that the raiders do, this game might be closer than what bettors expect. i could see mills getting some decent passing in. rumors are that tannehill might not play, which would result in their rookie qb starting. i'm assuming that's what caused the line to drop from 3.5 to 2. if that's the case, i'm definitely interested in the texans. hell, it might be if tannehill plays. i've bet the texans a couple times and they've covered all but once. 

Giants vs Seahawks -3 (o/u 45)

Giants seem to be the team everyone loves to hate. (not a dig at you, sac). these guys are making miracles happen with a star rb, a qb from duke, and a bunch of no bodies for wr's. gotta give credit to the field goal kicker, too. boy do the giants love their field goals! and then there's the seahawks. geno smith coming out guns blazing!! it's gotta make you wonder, was russel wilson the problem? this number opened seachickens -1 and was quickly steamed up. i'm not sure that i understand why. seahawks looking like metcalf is out, so down to a pair of receivers. their run d is third worst in the league and barkley should have a field day. the same goes for giants run d though. while seahawks are third worst, giants run d is dead last. kenneth walker time to shine. if both of these guys' run games get going, this has the ability to be a track meet opening up the passing game, so i get why the total moved off a key number of 43 and moved to 45. maybe it's because of a couple bigger underdog wins against the chargers and the cards? i dunno, but i like what daboll is doing, man. that guy has won over a team who's locker room has been toxic for years. i forget who they were interviewing, but he was in tears at the end of the game talking about how great the team is forming. give me the giants to keep proving everyone wrong and call me a sucker. lol

Redskins vs. Colts -3 (o/u 40)

corner tv game right here. what do we expect from this? matty ice is benched for the rest of the year and ehlinger is terrible. the skins are coming off a win over the packers which actually doesn't look that impressive other than for namesake. dude, fuck this game. i'm not spending any more time on this. if you bet this, good luck to you

Niners -1 vs. Rams (o/u 43.5)

total and signed have taken a beating. the market still doesn't respect stafford and rightfully so. this baby opened up rams -2.5 with a total at 40. niners have a lot of making up to do from that god awful performance last weekend. rams have a lot of making up to do from the entire season, but i don't think that's gonna happen. stafford looks like he has fizzled out and is on his way to matt ryan territory. caf should be much more integrated with the offense and it'll be interesting how this goes down. these aren't normal runnin gback plays, though, and might cause some hiccups along the way with how shanahan runs these crazy intricate slant plays and what not. jimmy g has a much more healthy set of blockers and the niners have some big defensive pieces back. bosa is back and is going to cause some pain to stafford. stafford hasnt shown to be able to get out of the pocket, get the ball out fast enough, or have good enough protection. this is a recipe for disaster. i really don't see how niners don't win, or even this game doesn't go over. let's also not forget about shanahan record over mcvay

Packers vs Bills -10.5 (o/u 47.5)

History in the making right here. first time rodgers has ever been a double digit underdog. man, does he deserve the points, too. this team just can't get right. losing to the skins?! even lombardi would be rolling over in his grave. it looked like rodgers found a new wr in doubs and then he fell off the face of the earth. aaron jones is the best receiver but the issue is he's their premier running back as well. so who the hell is rodgers gonna pass to against a buffalo team only allowing 13.5 points per game? bakhtiarai is again out, who was the security blanket for rodgers protection. i guess rodgers has a thumb injury, too? bills look pristine as ever. what's negative to say about them when they're completely demolishing these teams? granted some have been shit defenses but they're destroying the spread. i would think bills maybe want to mess around with thier run game a little bit here, and of course diggs is gonna get his. the only thing i can say is that the bills got a lookahead to the jets, so they might just coast by this one. you already know the teaser handle will be through the roof on this game with bills money.

there you have it. three elijah craig's and one tatuaje cigar later. enjoy

No Battle of Ohio?   GFY!  

wow. this stupid ass character limit had me copy and pasting. i had it and looks like it didn't get the last part. honestly it doesn't look like this much text when i had it typed up or i would've cut back a ton. i'll get to it when the blood starts circulating through my fingers again

lol.

the battle of the stupids lol.  made me laugh.  

Podcast I was just listening to said Jags had possessions that touched the Giants 1, 5, 9, and 11 yard lines and netted a grand total of 3 points lol.

might have the yard lines wrong but you get the idea.....

Nice job on the writeups ODB.  

I normally don't bet on my team because I cannot always be trusted to not bet with my heart, but this week I am betting the Raaiiiiddderrrrrs.  We have a few potentially winnable games in a row to try and get in wild card position.  Chic kept saying they were gonna beat New Orleans this week and make the playoffs still.  Something about Art Shell's mailman's birthday and a 7th Pirates of the Caribbean movie involving actual Somalians from the French Quarter in New Orleans.  IDK how he connected those dots but he sold me, so I went extra big on it.  I've thrown more money at worse ideas.

Good read 

@OlDirtyBaztid

Well done

wow.....u missed ur calling....unreal....

Nice job odb.

But not too fond of capital letters I see...

And yes, I will continue to burn $ fading the Giants till I get it back, I mean when has that strategy never worked?

@JDD

 That post was pure gold 

I see I have to step my game up   

did you need a nap after all this?   

@BIGDTITLE

Pretty sure the kid got into the Bourbon ....no way hes that distractred this long 

NFL 32-27-2 (+9.04)

Week 7: 5-6 (+0.56)

Jaguars -3(+104) *1.04

Seahawks -1.5(-110) *1.10/1.00

Both look ahead lines posted on last week's thread. 

It's my last go around with the Getty's. It's becoming clear that coaching amongst other factors need to be a point of emphasis, not so much analytical stuff. Dabol is working some magic with the gmen and they deserved the win vs the Jags in the end. As JDD pointed out, "almost" only counts with horseshoes and hand grenades. So the Jags gained the yards, moved the ball, but fucked it up near the end zone. I never liked Doug Pederson. 

England is their home away from home, and the Broncos coach is equally(if not worse) than Pederson. Their qb situation is pure ass. If the Jags can't cover this # so be it. And hot damn, I'm going to pay to see it.

Geno Smith has been a darling to my bank roll. I was never a huge Pete Carroll guy, but the man has experience and can still motivate at his age. 

The Giants had 3 home games in the first 4 weeks. This will be their 3rd road game in their last 4 games, including a trip to London. The trip to Seattle is 2394 miles. They are on bye week 9, I feel that they will be thinking about going home if things aren't going well, or they'll just be flat out tired.

Also, the Seahawks are a team that likes to boat race. If I'm right about the Giants presumed fatigue(mental and physical), are they going to want a part of said race?

Going into the bye with a 6-2 record is nothing to pout about.

Clearly I didn't have knowledge of DJ's injury as it was a look ahead bet. The books don't seem to mind as the # has now reached 3.

Here are some NYG injuries from the Jags game.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/34871306/giants-evan-neal-daniel-bellinger-ben-bredeson-miss

Jaguars -3(+104) *1.04

Seahawks -1.5(-110) *1.10/1.00

Raiders 1H -.5(+103) *1.00/1.03

Now this is what you call a write up

Nicely Done ODB 

Where is Biscuit?

Getty?

CD?

The New York Giants are 6-1 and don't have a player with 200 yards receiving on the season.

This is not sustainable. The correction is coming

Absolutely Hugh. I'm considering adding more to Seattle, just need more NY $ to come in.

@undermysac

 You got a great number on that hawks game.  I put half a bet in at -3.   I may regret not just playing the moneyline.  I feel like that may be a wild game

Lots of short lines this week.  Might be good weather to tease everything.  Many blowouts seem unlikely on paper.....