Posted:
#1
Final Regular season Record: 51 - 39
well, we survived week 17. overall, a good regular season and great contributions from everyone every week. once again, i think this remains a great place for people to go every week to get some ideas about the games, follow bets and hopefully learn about the nfl and nfl gambling, which i think is different from any other sport. great work everyone. and we'll run it back next season.
i'll just keep this one thread for the entire playoffs and super bowl. as i mentioned earlier, i don't bet muc during the playoffs unless i really like a matchup. i like to find numbers that i think are off, and that's just not possible much, if at all, in the playoffs. plus, it helps to see the opening numbers and i haven't even looked yet so i'm already behind. in any case, i'll take a quick look at the matchups and lines and get things started.
Buffalo @ Houston - 3 this line is right where i'd have it. two very different teams. i think buffalo is better but i'm not quick to bet a shaky qb on the road in his first playoff game. but, buffalo has the better defense and better coaching so they will be considered at +3.
Tenn @ NE -5 what the f*ck was that yesterday by NE. we've discussed how this team is overrated the last few weeks, but i'm not sure many would have predicted losing to miami in a game they needed to win for seeding purposes. can never count out belichik but this doesn't look like a team that is going very far. Tenn has been great in the second half and really has a complete team while NE has a very good pass defense, but has some major issues, especially on offense. i predicted 4.5 so the line is about right. i'm not sure NE is the better team here so i'll consider tenn at this line.
Minn @ NO -8 i still like minn but you can't ignore their issues on the road and against good teams and NO is arguably the best team in the league right now. i was hoping to take Minn against seattle (i loved that matchup), but i'm not sure about this one unless the line is too high. hard to see NO losing but NO has been known to give up a lot of points against good teams so if minn is healthy, they can slide within a big number. i thought 7.5. pinnacle has 8 but i bet 7.5 is out there too.
Seattle @ Philly +1.5 this is one where people will side with seattle as the better team while philly limped into the playoffs, especially after seattle came within inches of winning their division last night. but philly is well coached and has the better defense at home. and this number should be low so this might be a good contrarian pick. also, how in the f*ck does seattle get a delay of game last night after getting down to the SF 1? it's like they thought they had the game won and didn't need to hurry up and run another play? amazing and that very well cost them a chance to get to the super bowl since i doubt seattle can make a run in the playoffs on the road. anyway, i thought seattle -1 so the line is right to me. not sure about this overrated seattle team as a road favorite in the playoffs.
ok, those are some quick thoughts to get things going. as expected, none of the lines are of to me. i won't be making any bets based on the lines. i wonder if any have moved since opening last night?
but, i do see some matchups that look interesting. we'll see how the week goes.
as always, feel free to post whatever you want over the next few weeks.
qb Trubinsky not so much, which is not to say he wont end up as a decent qb.
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