the newsletter usually comes out on wednesday but it looks like tomorrow is pretty busy so let's get to it this afternoon.
four lines last week seemed off. why was carolina only favored by 3/3.5 over Pitt (i understand a little better now, Carolina has some serious problems)), why was miami favored by so much over KC (miami isn't any good), why was philly only favored by 4 or so against wash (still not sure about this one) and why were the jets favored by 2 - 3 over chicago (??). i stayed away from them all. it's hard to tell when a line is really off or you are missing something. in the NFL, it's usually the latter.
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the newsletter usually comes out on wednesday but it looks like tomorrow is pretty busy so let's get to it this afternoon.
four lines last week seemed off. why was carolina only favored by 3/3.5 over Pitt (i understand a little better now, Carolina has some serious problems)), why was miami favored by so much over KC (miami isn't any good), why was philly only favored by 4 or so against wash (still not sure about this one) and why were the jets favored by 2 - 3 over chicago (??). i stayed away from them all. it's hard to tell when a line is really off or you are missing something. in the NFL, it's usually the latter.
NYG @ Wash -3.5 the giants finally came to life beating an overrated houston team last week. we do think the giants aren't that bad and are getting value these days. i think the same is true this week. however we may need to see them compete on the road before betting them in a situation like this (off a win, short week, division opponent). their onw road game so far was pretty bad although detroit is probably a level or two better than washington.
as for washington, we don't like them but covering last week against philly was pretty impressive. cousins is a big question mark. he's played one exhibiton game and then did well against a pretty bad philly pass defense. the giants are supposed to have a pretty good defense so let's see how cousins does here. if you look ahead to washington's schedule, the defenses start to get a lot tougher.
one thing i saw someone mention is that you can bet the thursdya night game based on betting the better coach. looks like you'd be a pretty easy 3-0 so far. not sure who you'd take this week though. i'm a big believer in coughlin based on his track record but it's been ugly lately.
probably no play here as we almost never bet this thursday night game. the points are tempting though.
Miami @ Oak +4 not sure why miami is getting so much respect this season. basically even @ buffalo and then -4 or 4.5 against KC who is probably the better team and now -4 on a big road trip against an oakland team that has played two teams possibly better than miami tough on the road. now, it seems like miami is in some turmoil with some discussion about benching tannehill who's been terrible this season at a time when he really needs to step up his game.
oakland obviously gets no respect but i can see oakland approaching this as a winnable game and giving a strong effort. i'm not sure miami is four points better here in oakland the way miami has been playing.
Buffalo @ Houston -3.5 a good game to see what these teams are truly about. buffalo has one very good win and one decent win and there is certainly no shame in losing to SD this season. houston has two pretty average wins and then got hammered at NYG. it was only a matter of time before fitzpatrick came back down to earth. remember, fitzpatrick sucks. foster is out. this offense does not have much going for it right now. clowney is out. watt is the best but there are some real problems on this team. they aren't the 2 win team from last season but i don't know how much better they are.
we think buffalo is pretty good but really won't know for a week or two. manuel is scary on the road. he did ok in their one road game but the chicaog defense doesn't scare anyone. @ houston is probably a tougher matchup on the defensive side than home chicago. this is one of those games where either team may turn out to be better than the other at the end of the season. i tend to think buffalo is better. and they are getting some decent points here. probably buffalo or nothing here.
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NYG @ Wash -3.5 the giants finally came to life beating an overrated houston team last week. we do think the giants aren't that bad and are getting value these days. i think the same is true this week. however we may need to see them compete on the road before betting them in a situation like this (off a win, short week, division opponent). their onw road game so far was pretty bad although detroit is probably a level or two better than washington.
as for washington, we don't like them but covering last week against philly was pretty impressive. cousins is a big question mark. he's played one exhibiton game and then did well against a pretty bad philly pass defense. the giants are supposed to have a pretty good defense so let's see how cousins does here. if you look ahead to washington's schedule, the defenses start to get a lot tougher.
one thing i saw someone mention is that you can bet the thursdya night game based on betting the better coach. looks like you'd be a pretty easy 3-0 so far. not sure who you'd take this week though. i'm a big believer in coughlin based on his track record but it's been ugly lately.
probably no play here as we almost never bet this thursday night game. the points are tempting though.
Miami @ Oak +4 not sure why miami is getting so much respect this season. basically even @ buffalo and then -4 or 4.5 against KC who is probably the better team and now -4 on a big road trip against an oakland team that has played two teams possibly better than miami tough on the road. now, it seems like miami is in some turmoil with some discussion about benching tannehill who's been terrible this season at a time when he really needs to step up his game.
oakland obviously gets no respect but i can see oakland approaching this as a winnable game and giving a strong effort. i'm not sure miami is four points better here in oakland the way miami has been playing.
Buffalo @ Houston -3.5 a good game to see what these teams are truly about. buffalo has one very good win and one decent win and there is certainly no shame in losing to SD this season. houston has two pretty average wins and then got hammered at NYG. it was only a matter of time before fitzpatrick came back down to earth. remember, fitzpatrick sucks. foster is out. this offense does not have much going for it right now. clowney is out. watt is the best but there are some real problems on this team. they aren't the 2 win team from last season but i don't know how much better they are.
we think buffalo is pretty good but really won't know for a week or two. manuel is scary on the road. he did ok in their one road game but the chicaog defense doesn't scare anyone. @ houston is probably a tougher matchup on the defensive side than home chicago. this is one of those games where either team may turn out to be better than the other at the end of the season. i tend to think buffalo is better. and they are getting some decent points here. probably buffalo or nothing here.
Carolina @ Baltimore -3 the shrimps aren't very good. let's get that out of the way early. but they've been ok at home so far and carolina is a little beat up coming into this one. they don't seem to have a running back. that was a huge problem against pitt on sunday night. carolina is underrated in how bad their coaching staff is. they play pitt who came into the game 30th in rushing defense (as measured by yards/attempt). so what do they do? they run the ball 5 times the first half and decide to just throw newton to his rookie and no name receivers. and the results were predictable. now stewart is hurt, tolbert isn't a RB but he's hurt anyway. this team can't do well against a decent team on the road without some legitimate commitment to the run. i'm not sure they figure it out or can be successful if they do.
i don't like carolina on the road with no running game. 3 may be a bargain if that's how this game plays out.
carolina does have a good defense and flacco could lose this game for the shrimps but if harbaugh plays a smart game, which he should, Blt looks like a pretty good bet this week.
TB @ Pitt +7.5 we already tipped our hands on this one. we like how this sets up. TB got beaten as badly as any team not the jaguars will get beat in a prime time game for everyone to see. after seeing that, there's no way they'll ever come within 20 points of anyone ever again, they are the worst team ever, and so on. Pitt just beat an ostensibly good carolina team on primetime as well. how can TB come close? in that situation, you know what to do. just waiting to see if it goes to 8.
otherwise, i'm reading that TB will get some players back this week. that should help.
when making underdog bets like this, which we often do, we can easily get blown out, which has happened with most of our losses this season. that's life when betting underdogs. but you just have to take each week as it comes and not put too much emphasis on one or two results.**
** doesn't apply to the jaguars. they are horrible every week and we're terrible for betting them.
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Carolina @ Baltimore -3 the shrimps aren't very good. let's get that out of the way early. but they've been ok at home so far and carolina is a little beat up coming into this one. they don't seem to have a running back. that was a huge problem against pitt on sunday night. carolina is underrated in how bad their coaching staff is. they play pitt who came into the game 30th in rushing defense (as measured by yards/attempt). so what do they do? they run the ball 5 times the first half and decide to just throw newton to his rookie and no name receivers. and the results were predictable. now stewart is hurt, tolbert isn't a RB but he's hurt anyway. this team can't do well against a decent team on the road without some legitimate commitment to the run. i'm not sure they figure it out or can be successful if they do.
i don't like carolina on the road with no running game. 3 may be a bargain if that's how this game plays out.
carolina does have a good defense and flacco could lose this game for the shrimps but if harbaugh plays a smart game, which he should, Blt looks like a pretty good bet this week.
TB @ Pitt +7.5 we already tipped our hands on this one. we like how this sets up. TB got beaten as badly as any team not the jaguars will get beat in a prime time game for everyone to see. after seeing that, there's no way they'll ever come within 20 points of anyone ever again, they are the worst team ever, and so on. Pitt just beat an ostensibly good carolina team on primetime as well. how can TB come close? in that situation, you know what to do. just waiting to see if it goes to 8.
otherwise, i'm reading that TB will get some players back this week. that should help.
when making underdog bets like this, which we often do, we can easily get blown out, which has happened with most of our losses this season. that's life when betting underdogs. but you just have to take each week as it comes and not put too much emphasis on one or two results.**
** doesn't apply to the jaguars. they are horrible every week and we're terrible for betting them.
Webb not being healthy is a huge problem for the Ravens...Jimmy Smith is a lock down corner....ground game better than people thought..Pierce/Forsett and Talifero look to be solid..loss of Pitta is big...Dirt Dog we will be fine...
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Webb not being healthy is a huge problem for the Ravens...Jimmy Smith is a lock down corner....ground game better than people thought..Pierce/Forsett and Talifero look to be solid..loss of Pitta is big...Dirt Dog we will be fine...
Jax @ SD -13.5 speaking of which, might have to take these points here. just kidding. we're not doing it and the next subscriber who doesn't remind us not to bet jacksonville when it looks like we're heading in that direction gets his membership revoked.
forgetting our ban on betting jacksonville for a minute, it's not a bad spot for them (if they weren't seemingly immune to such things). SD just came off a tough stretch- tough game with 3-0 AZ, beat the mighty seahawks, cross country trip and nice win @ buffalo and now come home to play the worst team in the league as 13.5 favorites. we liked SD to start the season as subscribers know but in only three weeks, does SD deserve such a huge number in such an obvious letdown spot. the answer is no. we might have t really take a look at jax here. if this was any other team, it would be close to an auto-play.
one (other) reason not to like Jax. people are going to get overly excited about bortles. he came in against indy and really didn't do that well but certainly looked better than henne and put some points on the board which henne couldn't do. but, keep in mind, there is no easier time for a QB than coming into a game against an average defense down 30-0 in the second half. how hard do you think indy's defense was trying in that one? of course, on the other hand, this week bortles gets the benefit of a full week of practice as the starter, which makes a big difference.
so, there's a lot going on here and most of it points to the underdog. the only factor i don't like is i suspect people will overrate bortles early. SD in massive letdown spot, those 13.5 points are tempting (as always), what to do?
Philly @ SF -5.5 already put this in at SF -4 -115. my prediction is this is either a great bet or will completely crash and burn. it could be that i'm falling victim to what i try to bet against in weeks 1-3 which are teams that are being overvalued based on last year and general perception. it could be that SF just isn't that good this year. if that's the case, this is obviously too many points. first, i don't think that's the case. i think we'll know after this week. second, i don't think philly is that good. they've been down by double digits each week. and they've played one terrible team and two average teams. again, if i'm right about SF, this is the toughest game they've played by far. if they get down, this week, it should be a big problem.
of course, the counterpoint is that SF has been terrible in the second halves and is the perfect team to let philly come back. i just don't see that as a continuing characteristic of this team. kaepernick is good, they can run the ball they have a great OL and their defense isn't as good as it was but isn't terrible. they should be able to hold a lead. most importantly, they have good coaching.
finally, philly is banged up. kendricks is hurt, the defense is a mess and now their OL has serious injury problems. this really looks like a blowout to me. but again, it is conditioned upon SF being a very good team, which may not be the case.
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Jax @ SD -13.5 speaking of which, might have to take these points here. just kidding. we're not doing it and the next subscriber who doesn't remind us not to bet jacksonville when it looks like we're heading in that direction gets his membership revoked.
forgetting our ban on betting jacksonville for a minute, it's not a bad spot for them (if they weren't seemingly immune to such things). SD just came off a tough stretch- tough game with 3-0 AZ, beat the mighty seahawks, cross country trip and nice win @ buffalo and now come home to play the worst team in the league as 13.5 favorites. we liked SD to start the season as subscribers know but in only three weeks, does SD deserve such a huge number in such an obvious letdown spot. the answer is no. we might have t really take a look at jax here. if this was any other team, it would be close to an auto-play.
one (other) reason not to like Jax. people are going to get overly excited about bortles. he came in against indy and really didn't do that well but certainly looked better than henne and put some points on the board which henne couldn't do. but, keep in mind, there is no easier time for a QB than coming into a game against an average defense down 30-0 in the second half. how hard do you think indy's defense was trying in that one? of course, on the other hand, this week bortles gets the benefit of a full week of practice as the starter, which makes a big difference.
so, there's a lot going on here and most of it points to the underdog. the only factor i don't like is i suspect people will overrate bortles early. SD in massive letdown spot, those 13.5 points are tempting (as always), what to do?
Philly @ SF -5.5 already put this in at SF -4 -115. my prediction is this is either a great bet or will completely crash and burn. it could be that i'm falling victim to what i try to bet against in weeks 1-3 which are teams that are being overvalued based on last year and general perception. it could be that SF just isn't that good this year. if that's the case, this is obviously too many points. first, i don't think that's the case. i think we'll know after this week. second, i don't think philly is that good. they've been down by double digits each week. and they've played one terrible team and two average teams. again, if i'm right about SF, this is the toughest game they've played by far. if they get down, this week, it should be a big problem.
of course, the counterpoint is that SF has been terrible in the second halves and is the perfect team to let philly come back. i just don't see that as a continuing characteristic of this team. kaepernick is good, they can run the ball they have a great OL and their defense isn't as good as it was but isn't terrible. they should be able to hold a lead. most importantly, they have good coaching.
finally, philly is banged up. kendricks is hurt, the defense is a mess and now their OL has serious injury problems. this really looks like a blowout to me. but again, it is conditioned upon SF being a very good team, which may not be the case.
Carolina @ Baltimore -3 the shrimps aren't very good. let's get that out of the way early. but they've been ok at home so far and carolina is a little beat up coming into this one. they don't seem to have a running back. that was a huge problem against pitt on sunday night. carolina is underrated in how bad their coaching staff is. they play pitt who came into the game 30th in rushing defense (as measured by yards/attempt). so what do they do? they run the ball 5 times the first half and decide to just throw newton to his rookie and no name receivers. and the results were predictable. now stewart is hurt, tolbert isn't a RB but he's hurt anyway. this team can't do well against a decent team on the road without some legitimate commitment to the run. i'm not sure they figure it out or can be successful if they do.
i don't like carolina on the road with no running game. 3 may be a bargain if that's how this game plays out.
carolina does have a good defense and flacco could lose this game for the shrimps but if harbaugh plays a smart game, which he should, Blt looks like a pretty good bet this week.
TB @ Pitt +7.5 we already tipped our hands on this one. we like how this sets up. TB got beaten as badly as any team not the jaguars will get beat in a prime time game for everyone to see. after seeing that, there's no way they'll ever come within 20 points of anyone ever again, they are the worst team ever, and so on. Pitt just beat an ostensibly good carolina team on primetime as well. how can TB come close? in that situation, you know what to do. just waiting to see if it goes to 8.
otherwise, i'm reading that TB will get some players back this week. that should help.
when making underdog bets like this, which we often do, we can easily get blown out, which has happened with most of our losses this season. that's life when betting underdogs. but you just have to take each week as it comes and not put too much emphasis on one or two results.**
** doesn't apply to the jaguars. they are horrible every week and we're terrible for betting them.
I don't think Pitt is an underdog.........anyways I already put in some bets on the Over in a few games already just in case it goes higher...
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Quote Originally Posted by ClubDirt:
Carolina @ Baltimore -3 the shrimps aren't very good. let's get that out of the way early. but they've been ok at home so far and carolina is a little beat up coming into this one. they don't seem to have a running back. that was a huge problem against pitt on sunday night. carolina is underrated in how bad their coaching staff is. they play pitt who came into the game 30th in rushing defense (as measured by yards/attempt). so what do they do? they run the ball 5 times the first half and decide to just throw newton to his rookie and no name receivers. and the results were predictable. now stewart is hurt, tolbert isn't a RB but he's hurt anyway. this team can't do well against a decent team on the road without some legitimate commitment to the run. i'm not sure they figure it out or can be successful if they do.
i don't like carolina on the road with no running game. 3 may be a bargain if that's how this game plays out.
carolina does have a good defense and flacco could lose this game for the shrimps but if harbaugh plays a smart game, which he should, Blt looks like a pretty good bet this week.
TB @ Pitt +7.5 we already tipped our hands on this one. we like how this sets up. TB got beaten as badly as any team not the jaguars will get beat in a prime time game for everyone to see. after seeing that, there's no way they'll ever come within 20 points of anyone ever again, they are the worst team ever, and so on. Pitt just beat an ostensibly good carolina team on primetime as well. how can TB come close? in that situation, you know what to do. just waiting to see if it goes to 8.
otherwise, i'm reading that TB will get some players back this week. that should help.
when making underdog bets like this, which we often do, we can easily get blown out, which has happened with most of our losses this season. that's life when betting underdogs. but you just have to take each week as it comes and not put too much emphasis on one or two results.**
** doesn't apply to the jaguars. they are horrible every week and we're terrible for betting them.
I don't think Pitt is an underdog.........anyways I already put in some bets on the Over in a few games already just in case it goes higher...
Atl @ Minn +2.5 no, no, no. Atl should not be favored on the road. their defense is not good enough to be favored on the road here. i hope bridgewater is decent and gives this team a boost after the peterson fiasco. if he is and the team comes out to play, they should win this.
New Orleans @ Dallas +3 if you are thinking of betting dallas because New Orleans is a bad road team, i wouldn't do it. they are obviously not as good on the road but it depends on a few factors: turf (or whatever they call it now) vs. grass, good or bad defense, coaching. last season they were actually pretty good on the road, missing a 4-4 record by one terrible meltdown in new england. they are good for 3-4 road wins every season, at least. i think their best chances to win on the road are on turf against bad defenses. that looks like what we have here.
there's no line value with the saints. they were 0-2 and favored by double digits the next week and now are 3 point road favorites against a team that has looked good so far, for the most part. i' just relying on my preseason predictions that the saints are a very good team and dallas has some serious problems on defense. i think this is a bad matchup for dallas.
NE @ KC +3.5 not sure NE has shown enough to be 3+ favorites in such a tough place to play on monday night. KC had a bad loss in game one (which looks worse now) and then two solid games. NE caught minnesota during the adrian peterson child beater week and looked pretty bad the other two weeks. i don't see how a NE bet makes sense here. KC is still a great home field advantage and i can't remember, but it seems like they haven't had a home MNF game in a long time. NE will have to 1) be a great team to cover this (which they may not be) and 2) be on top of their game to cover this (which they are some weeks and some weeks they barely beat oakland at home).
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Atl @ Minn +2.5 no, no, no. Atl should not be favored on the road. their defense is not good enough to be favored on the road here. i hope bridgewater is decent and gives this team a boost after the peterson fiasco. if he is and the team comes out to play, they should win this.
New Orleans @ Dallas +3 if you are thinking of betting dallas because New Orleans is a bad road team, i wouldn't do it. they are obviously not as good on the road but it depends on a few factors: turf (or whatever they call it now) vs. grass, good or bad defense, coaching. last season they were actually pretty good on the road, missing a 4-4 record by one terrible meltdown in new england. they are good for 3-4 road wins every season, at least. i think their best chances to win on the road are on turf against bad defenses. that looks like what we have here.
there's no line value with the saints. they were 0-2 and favored by double digits the next week and now are 3 point road favorites against a team that has looked good so far, for the most part. i' just relying on my preseason predictions that the saints are a very good team and dallas has some serious problems on defense. i think this is a bad matchup for dallas.
NE @ KC +3.5 not sure NE has shown enough to be 3+ favorites in such a tough place to play on monday night. KC had a bad loss in game one (which looks worse now) and then two solid games. NE caught minnesota during the adrian peterson child beater week and looked pretty bad the other two weeks. i don't see how a NE bet makes sense here. KC is still a great home field advantage and i can't remember, but it seems like they haven't had a home MNF game in a long time. NE will have to 1) be a great team to cover this (which they may not be) and 2) be on top of their game to cover this (which they are some weeks and some weeks they barely beat oakland at home).
so the bye weeks start this week. a lot of teams get the dreaded week 4 bye- cincy, clev, denver, st. louis, AZ, seattle.
here's what we look for in week 5. the week 4 bye week is probably the worst bye for a team because they are typically healthier in week 4 than later in the season. they don't need a break now when the season just started. additionally, it's terrible for teams that got a good start to the season. they are getting a break they don't need that just disrupts their momentum.
the obvious teams to watch here are AZ and Cincy who got off to great starts only to have their momentum broken up. particularly AZ who not many predicted would be 3-0. in fact, all of these teams have started off pretty well except Stl. i'll be looking to go against each of them in weeks 5 and 6 except Stl based on this momentum idea.
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so the bye weeks start this week. a lot of teams get the dreaded week 4 bye- cincy, clev, denver, st. louis, AZ, seattle.
here's what we look for in week 5. the week 4 bye week is probably the worst bye for a team because they are typically healthier in week 4 than later in the season. they don't need a break now when the season just started. additionally, it's terrible for teams that got a good start to the season. they are getting a break they don't need that just disrupts their momentum.
the obvious teams to watch here are AZ and Cincy who got off to great starts only to have their momentum broken up. particularly AZ who not many predicted would be 3-0. in fact, all of these teams have started off pretty well except Stl. i'll be looking to go against each of them in weeks 5 and 6 except Stl based on this momentum idea.
shrimp, i forgot about pitta. that's a pretty big deal. are the shrimps going to f*ck me if i bet them? they look like a solid play this week.
cyrax, maybe i meant TB should be favored by 7.5 over Pitt? ok, that was just a typo. i may be looking like an idiot with that TB bet, if i make it, and i know you don't agree, but that play fits squarely into the ClubDirtSports.com NFL betting philosophy. can't shy away now.
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shrimp, i forgot about pitta. that's a pretty big deal. are the shrimps going to f*ck me if i bet them? they look like a solid play this week.
cyrax, maybe i meant TB should be favored by 7.5 over Pitt? ok, that was just a typo. i may be looking like an idiot with that TB bet, if i make it, and i know you don't agree, but that play fits squarely into the ClubDirtSports.com NFL betting philosophy. can't shy away now.
i was just going off pinnacle which i always do. looks like i missed a couple. no pinnacle lines for these so i'll make my own guess
GB @ Chicago - this is why i don't like doing this on tuesday. not enough info out yet. why is this off at pinnacle. assuming there are no major injuries, i'd put this at Chicago -3. if detroit was just 2.5 and GB just played like garbage in that one, chicago should be at least 0.5 point higher. seems logical to me.
obviously, people are going to be looking at the GB bounce back angle and the chicago letdown post-MNF win angle. i can see that especially after the chicago DB's were dropping like flies. GB is not a good matchup when you are banged up in the secondary coming off a game where GB scored 7 points to a division opponent. maybe T6 can look at the last time GB scored 7 or in that range. did rodgers come back strong? rodgers has to be excited to face the banged up chicago secondary. maybe this will be 2.5.
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i was just going off pinnacle which i always do. looks like i missed a couple. no pinnacle lines for these so i'll make my own guess
GB @ Chicago - this is why i don't like doing this on tuesday. not enough info out yet. why is this off at pinnacle. assuming there are no major injuries, i'd put this at Chicago -3. if detroit was just 2.5 and GB just played like garbage in that one, chicago should be at least 0.5 point higher. seems logical to me.
obviously, people are going to be looking at the GB bounce back angle and the chicago letdown post-MNF win angle. i can see that especially after the chicago DB's were dropping like flies. GB is not a good matchup when you are banged up in the secondary coming off a game where GB scored 7 points to a division opponent. maybe T6 can look at the last time GB scored 7 or in that range. did rodgers come back strong? rodgers has to be excited to face the banged up chicago secondary. maybe this will be 2.5.
Tenn @ Indy Maybe locker is hurt? it looks like we were wrong about tennessee. a good team would not have been destroyed the last two weeks. maybe they wouldn't win those games but they'd at least be competitive in one of them. if locker isn't playing well, this team won't be very good. the defense should be better in any case. this is one i was looking forward to. i thought tenn was underrated and Indy was overrated. i'll guess the line is 6. if Cincy was 7, we know indy isn't that good, so it should be 6. i may have to admit defeat here and lay off.
Det @ NYJ why is this one off? the jets are a mess. the took themselves out of last night's game early on. they could have come back but they aren't very well coached. their gameplan was pretty bad. how many times do you want to kick field goals on 4th and short when the other team is scoring touchdowns? it also doesn't seem like they know what they are doing with geno. the QB draw into the heart of the chicago defense on 3rd and goal was one blatant example but they were many more. so, it's hard to have confidence in a young QB, shitty coaching and terrible secondary whend etroit is playing well. the jets were -2 by monday against chicago. detroit is a similar team. but i think people realize the jets aren't very good. this should be detroit -1.
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Tenn @ Indy Maybe locker is hurt? it looks like we were wrong about tennessee. a good team would not have been destroyed the last two weeks. maybe they wouldn't win those games but they'd at least be competitive in one of them. if locker isn't playing well, this team won't be very good. the defense should be better in any case. this is one i was looking forward to. i thought tenn was underrated and Indy was overrated. i'll guess the line is 6. if Cincy was 7, we know indy isn't that good, so it should be 6. i may have to admit defeat here and lay off.
Det @ NYJ why is this one off? the jets are a mess. the took themselves out of last night's game early on. they could have come back but they aren't very well coached. their gameplan was pretty bad. how many times do you want to kick field goals on 4th and short when the other team is scoring touchdowns? it also doesn't seem like they know what they are doing with geno. the QB draw into the heart of the chicago defense on 3rd and goal was one blatant example but they were many more. so, it's hard to have confidence in a young QB, shitty coaching and terrible secondary whend etroit is playing well. the jets were -2 by monday against chicago. detroit is a similar team. but i think people realize the jets aren't very good. this should be detroit -1.
Miami @ Oak +4 not sure why miami is getting so much respect this season. basically even @ buffalo and then -4 or 4.5 against KC who is probably the better team and now -4 on a big road trip against an oakland team that has played two teams possibly better than miami tough on the road. now, it seems like miami is in some turmoil with some discussion about benching tannehill who's been terrible this season at a time when he really needs to step up his game.
oakland obviously gets no respect but i can see oakland approaching this as a winnable game and giving a strong effort. i'm not sure miami is four points better here in oakland the way miami has been playing.
i miss this every year since i start by looking at pinnacle lines. this game is in london (future home of the Queens Park Jaguars). as a result, disregard most of what i wrote. i guess the line makes sense on a neutral field, maybe a little high. but, who the darn knows how these teams respond to that kind of trip. i never bet the london games and i'm not starting with this one.
T6, what do ya got?
davidN
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Quote Originally Posted by ClubDirt:
Miami @ Oak +4 not sure why miami is getting so much respect this season. basically even @ buffalo and then -4 or 4.5 against KC who is probably the better team and now -4 on a big road trip against an oakland team that has played two teams possibly better than miami tough on the road. now, it seems like miami is in some turmoil with some discussion about benching tannehill who's been terrible this season at a time when he really needs to step up his game.
oakland obviously gets no respect but i can see oakland approaching this as a winnable game and giving a strong effort. i'm not sure miami is four points better here in oakland the way miami has been playing.
i miss this every year since i start by looking at pinnacle lines. this game is in london (future home of the Queens Park Jaguars). as a result, disregard most of what i wrote. i guess the line makes sense on a neutral field, maybe a little high. but, who the darn knows how these teams respond to that kind of trip. i never bet the london games and i'm not starting with this one.
While i like the fact that Tampa will probably play their behind off to prove that they are not in fact the worst team ever,and their run D is not bad.They have not faced a back like Bell.The change of qb is surely to help. IMO. Something tells me i'll also be on Tampa
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RE: Tampa
While i like the fact that Tampa will probably play their behind off to prove that they are not in fact the worst team ever,and their run D is not bad.They have not faced a back like Bell.The change of qb is surely to help. IMO. Something tells me i'll also be on Tampa
NYG @ Wash -3.5 the giants finally came to life beating an overrated houston team last week. we do think the giants aren't that bad and are getting value these days. i think the same is true this week. however we may need to see them compete on the road before betting them in a situation like this (off a win, short week, division opponent). their onw road game so far was pretty bad although detroit is probably a level or two better than washington.
as for washington, we don't like them but covering last week against philly was pretty impressive. cousins is a big question mark. he's played one exhibiton game and then did well against a pretty bad philly pass defense. the giants are supposed to have a pretty good defense so let's see how cousins does here. if you look ahead to washington's schedule, the defenses start to get a lot tougher.
one thing i saw someone mention is that you can bet the thursdya night game based on betting the better coach. looks like you'd be a pretty easy 3-0 so far. not sure who you'd take this week though. i'm a big believer in coughlin based on his track record but it's been ugly lately.
probably no play here as we almost never bet this thursday night game. the points are tempting though.
Lines down to 3.
I believe that Cousins is better than RG3.
Redskins front seven > Giants O-line.
Wash -3
GL tonight, fella's
bigreds daddy
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Quote Originally Posted by ClubDirt:
NYG @ Wash -3.5 the giants finally came to life beating an overrated houston team last week. we do think the giants aren't that bad and are getting value these days. i think the same is true this week. however we may need to see them compete on the road before betting them in a situation like this (off a win, short week, division opponent). their onw road game so far was pretty bad although detroit is probably a level or two better than washington.
as for washington, we don't like them but covering last week against philly was pretty impressive. cousins is a big question mark. he's played one exhibiton game and then did well against a pretty bad philly pass defense. the giants are supposed to have a pretty good defense so let's see how cousins does here. if you look ahead to washington's schedule, the defenses start to get a lot tougher.
one thing i saw someone mention is that you can bet the thursdya night game based on betting the better coach. looks like you'd be a pretty easy 3-0 so far. not sure who you'd take this week though. i'm a big believer in coughlin based on his track record but it's been ugly lately.
probably no play here as we almost never bet this thursday night game. the points are tempting though.
i agree cousins is better than RG3. but is cousins any good?
i'm warming up to a play on houston at 3. can houston play some defense? if so, manuel could have a serious problem. playing chicago's defense doesn't scare anyone.
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i agree cousins is better than RG3. but is cousins any good?
i'm warming up to a play on houston at 3. can houston play some defense? if so, manuel could have a serious problem. playing chicago's defense doesn't scare anyone.
Andy Benoit of Sports Illustrated ranks the San Diego Chargers the NFL team hardest hit by injuries so far this season. The Chargers have placed eight players on the injured reserve list, and have lost key players like center Nick Hardwick and running back Danny Woodhead for the season.
Surely, we'll be taking a long hard look at Jacksonville this Sunday, won't we ?
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Andy Benoit of Sports Illustrated ranks the San Diego Chargers the NFL team hardest hit by injuries so far this season. The Chargers have placed eight players on the injured reserve list, and have lost key players like center Nick Hardwick and running back Danny Woodhead for the season.
Surely, we'll be taking a long hard look at Jacksonville this Sunday, won't we ?
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I don't think Pitt is an underdog.........anyways I already put in some bets on the Over in a few games already just in case it goes higher...
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