Ladies, Gentlemen, and Bigred, It is an occasion of immeasurable joy to see you gathered here tonight for the unveiling of the 2020 NFL season. Our host, Mr CD, has asked that we all wear masks while posting within this thread, so as not to spread herpes. Like most of you I have no idea WTF is going on with NFL teams. But unlike most of you I don't believe the lack of preseason games will have that much of an effect on the quality. We shall find out soon enough. Leaning Hou tonight. And like many of our contributors, I will sprinkle a little something on the ML of the Shrimps opponent
Bravo. Masks on like... Patrick Roy?
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Quote Originally Posted by Hugh_Jorgan:
Ladies, Gentlemen, and Bigred, It is an occasion of immeasurable joy to see you gathered here tonight for the unveiling of the 2020 NFL season. Our host, Mr CD, has asked that we all wear masks while posting within this thread, so as not to spread herpes. Like most of you I have no idea WTF is going on with NFL teams. But unlike most of you I don't believe the lack of preseason games will have that much of an effect on the quality. We shall find out soon enough. Leaning Hou tonight. And like many of our contributors, I will sprinkle a little something on the ML of the Shrimps opponent
First time I've been on this site since college basketball shut down. Didn't miss it.
The newsletter still worth it though. Anyways, I've been in a pool for the past how many years that rewards not just winning ATS but gives you points by how much you beat the spread by (or negative points for losing). Ex. last nights game was KC -9.5, so you take the chiefs you got 4.5 points, you took texans you got -4.5. Pretty simple.
Anybody got any links or info or theories on what ranges or spreads would be best to take advantage of, or avoid? So a -3 favorite has a 50/50 shot at covering, but maybe there's info out there about how much that favorite covers by, or how much they lose by when they don't cover? Should a dog of 10+ be avoided because they don't have much potential of blowing out a far superior opponent?
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First time I've been on this site since college basketball shut down. Didn't miss it.
The newsletter still worth it though. Anyways, I've been in a pool for the past how many years that rewards not just winning ATS but gives you points by how much you beat the spread by (or negative points for losing). Ex. last nights game was KC -9.5, so you take the chiefs you got 4.5 points, you took texans you got -4.5. Pretty simple.
Anybody got any links or info or theories on what ranges or spreads would be best to take advantage of, or avoid? So a -3 favorite has a 50/50 shot at covering, but maybe there's info out there about how much that favorite covers by, or how much they lose by when they don't cover? Should a dog of 10+ be avoided because they don't have much potential of blowing out a far superior opponent?
Roddy ....pretty loaded question ....most of the good sites dried up due to covid and due to financials ....not sure you are going to get wgat you want from oddshark or statfox to be honest ....you may want to check with the sdql guys if you know any ...i will look into this further to update
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Roddy ....pretty loaded question ....most of the good sites dried up due to covid and due to financials ....not sure you are going to get wgat you want from oddshark or statfox to be honest ....you may want to check with the sdql guys if you know any ...i will look into this further to update
Roddy ....pretty loaded question ....most of the good sites dried up due to covid and due to financials ....not sure you are going to get wgat you want from oddshark or statfox to be honest ....you may want to check with the sdql guys if you know any ...i will look into this further to update
Most of that info is behind a paywall now.
On another subject, my lasting impressions of last night's game will be:
A) The Texans not coming out for the national anthem and then getting booed by the KC fans during a moment of unity. (Not even saying who/what was right. Just an observation)
B) Bill O' Brien's ridiculously elementary game plan which gave the team no chance to win. It becomes more and more clear that he's the most overrated head coach in the NFL.
C) Andy Reid pretending to call the Chiefs plays despite being blinded by a fogged up welder's mask.
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Quote Originally Posted by trainwreck66:
Roddy ....pretty loaded question ....most of the good sites dried up due to covid and due to financials ....not sure you are going to get wgat you want from oddshark or statfox to be honest ....you may want to check with the sdql guys if you know any ...i will look into this further to update
Most of that info is behind a paywall now.
On another subject, my lasting impressions of last night's game will be:
A) The Texans not coming out for the national anthem and then getting booed by the KC fans during a moment of unity. (Not even saying who/what was right. Just an observation)
B) Bill O' Brien's ridiculously elementary game plan which gave the team no chance to win. It becomes more and more clear that he's the most overrated head coach in the NFL.
C) Andy Reid pretending to call the Chiefs plays despite being blinded by a fogged up welder's mask.
Anyone in here looking for a big money survivor pool send me a PM ive said this in a few threads but I honestly believe if you bet every dog this week you end the week profitable. It’s dumb. It’s lazy. But hey it just might work
LOL i've always wanted to do that and while it could bear fruit this weekend something tells me that this sundays results wont vary much from the others. I dare ya to do it.
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Quote Originally Posted by BIGDTITLE:
Anyone in here looking for a big money survivor pool send me a PM ive said this in a few threads but I honestly believe if you bet every dog this week you end the week profitable. It’s dumb. It’s lazy. But hey it just might work
LOL i've always wanted to do that and while it could bear fruit this weekend something tells me that this sundays results wont vary much from the others. I dare ya to do it.
welcome back, fellas. getty, Indy -13 . if someone, anyone, can get to the Qb, rivers might night make it to the second half. but that Indy OL is legit so he may have a big year since he won't be running for his life. can jacksonville be as bad as miami was in the first half of last season? and i always like detroit to start the season. they've been a disappointment every season. we'll see if this year is different. titus, hopefully things will get better as we go here. biscuit, i'm lacking in confidence and content to start the season. i might have to pay my subscribers to read this. dj, as i went through these games, i completely forgot about the fact that most or all of these stadiums will be empty. i only guessed one or two lines right so maybe that's the difference. but it brings up a point that i read about a while ago. if you assume 3 point for home field advantage, and i think that's a decent starting point, but that number should be different depending on the home field, the situation, the travel, the other team and other factors, how much of that is crowd noice and how much of it is travel and not playing in the place you're used to, etc. of course, travel isn't much of a big deal in week one. jax looks like the only hot weather game. maybe carolina. anyway, maybe that explains the 2.5 for minnesota, but i still think that line should be 3 and if it isn't, then it should be 3.5. trainwreck finally, my first rpediction of the season - 24-20, cleveland wins
Well, it does beg the question...
what’s in home field advantage? Sure, travel etc. is a major factor. But for me, it’s the crowd and the electricity.
welcome back, fellas. getty, Indy -13 . if someone, anyone, can get to the Qb, rivers might night make it to the second half. but that Indy OL is legit so he may have a big year since he won't be running for his life. can jacksonville be as bad as miami was in the first half of last season? and i always like detroit to start the season. they've been a disappointment every season. we'll see if this year is different. titus, hopefully things will get better as we go here. biscuit, i'm lacking in confidence and content to start the season. i might have to pay my subscribers to read this. dj, as i went through these games, i completely forgot about the fact that most or all of these stadiums will be empty. i only guessed one or two lines right so maybe that's the difference. but it brings up a point that i read about a while ago. if you assume 3 point for home field advantage, and i think that's a decent starting point, but that number should be different depending on the home field, the situation, the travel, the other team and other factors, how much of that is crowd noice and how much of it is travel and not playing in the place you're used to, etc. of course, travel isn't much of a big deal in week one. jax looks like the only hot weather game. maybe carolina. anyway, maybe that explains the 2.5 for minnesota, but i still think that line should be 3 and if it isn't, then it should be 3.5. trainwreck finally, my first rpediction of the season - 24-20, cleveland wins
Well, it does beg the question...
what’s in home field advantage? Sure, travel etc. is a major factor. But for me, it’s the crowd and the electricity.
Roddy ....pretty loaded question ....most of the good sites dried up due to covid and due to financials ....not sure you are going to get wgat you want from oddshark or statfox to be honest ....you may want to check with the sdql guys if you know any ...i will look into this further to update
was definitely not looking for end all be all, just maybe a general either avoid big dogs or avoid teams that were +3 or whatever. I’ll be taking bills bengals broncos rams washington football team see how it goes. Unless Hugh Jordan goes against then I reserve the right to change my terrible opinions
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Quote Originally Posted by trainwreck66:
Roddy ....pretty loaded question ....most of the good sites dried up due to covid and due to financials ....not sure you are going to get wgat you want from oddshark or statfox to be honest ....you may want to check with the sdql guys if you know any ...i will look into this further to update
was definitely not looking for end all be all, just maybe a general either avoid big dogs or avoid teams that were +3 or whatever. I’ll be taking bills bengals broncos rams washington football team see how it goes. Unless Hugh Jordan goes against then I reserve the right to change my terrible opinions
I keep seeing and hearing folks talking about teams with new HC's (or new QB, or new OC) being at such a disadvantage due to the limitations of this preseason and mini-camps.
First off, anything so obvious is factored into the lines, thus there is no competitive advantage in blindly wagering against such teams.
Personally I believe the disadvantage might actually be with the teams who are playing against teams with new (fill in the blank). It is not possible to prepare for these teams because you have no idea what they will be trying to do.
Same holds true for home field advantage. It's not worth handicapping which teams are more greatly effected by no/limited fans. It has already been factored into the lines by men and computers much smarter than us
bigreds daddy
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I keep seeing and hearing folks talking about teams with new HC's (or new QB, or new OC) being at such a disadvantage due to the limitations of this preseason and mini-camps.
First off, anything so obvious is factored into the lines, thus there is no competitive advantage in blindly wagering against such teams.
Personally I believe the disadvantage might actually be with the teams who are playing against teams with new (fill in the blank). It is not possible to prepare for these teams because you have no idea what they will be trying to do.
Same holds true for home field advantage. It's not worth handicapping which teams are more greatly effected by no/limited fans. It has already been factored into the lines by men and computers much smarter than us
As always, I have opinions on a lot of games. Not as always (actually I don't think this has ever happened) I like almost all favorites. Traditionally, I am at least 60% dogs. Not today. This weeks guesses: Buff -6 Sea -1 Wash +5.5 Det -2.5 Minn -2.5 SF -6.5 NO -3.5 Dall -2 Tenn -3 Couple of those games I like a lot. The others are just leans which I happen to be throwing some money at. Good luck today, fella's
Good lord thats some chalk. Not sure all intangables can be factored.Enjoy your football and bol with your plays.
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Quote Originally Posted by Hugh_Jorgan:
As always, I have opinions on a lot of games. Not as always (actually I don't think this has ever happened) I like almost all favorites. Traditionally, I am at least 60% dogs. Not today. This weeks guesses: Buff -6 Sea -1 Wash +5.5 Det -2.5 Minn -2.5 SF -6.5 NO -3.5 Dall -2 Tenn -3 Couple of those games I like a lot. The others are just leans which I happen to be throwing some money at. Good luck today, fella's
Good lord thats some chalk. Not sure all intangables can be factored.Enjoy your football and bol with your plays.
Week 1 Wild Guesses Native Americans +5.5 Both teams stink. Nobody should be laying points. Orleans -3.5 Reality vs. Hype Part 1. San Fran -6.5 Reality vs. Hype Part 2. Looks like a decent week to play a teaser or two for those who like that sort of thing. Good day and good luck.
May the majority of fortuitous bounces go your way this year. May join ya on 49er.
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Quote Originally Posted by Getty3:
Week 1 Wild Guesses Native Americans +5.5 Both teams stink. Nobody should be laying points. Orleans -3.5 Reality vs. Hype Part 1. San Fran -6.5 Reality vs. Hype Part 2. Looks like a decent week to play a teaser or two for those who like that sort of thing. Good day and good luck.
May the majority of fortuitous bounces go your way this year. May join ya on 49er.
I think the Falcons will win the nfc south. Because they seem to have been forgotten. Brady n Brees are old as piss. Matt Ryan has never played poorly.
Last year they started 1-7 first 8. But finished 6-2 winning their last 4 games. They went 1-1 vs the Saints and Bucs and beat the niners in those last 8.
I don't like their coach much, for being a defensive guru it's their D that lacks every year. Pete Carol is a great coach, and betting against Russell Wilson is always dangerous. But I think Seattle runs into a buzz saw today...maybe?
Falcons ML+105
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GL guys.
I think the Falcons will win the nfc south. Because they seem to have been forgotten. Brady n Brees are old as piss. Matt Ryan has never played poorly.
Last year they started 1-7 first 8. But finished 6-2 winning their last 4 games. They went 1-1 vs the Saints and Bucs and beat the niners in those last 8.
I don't like their coach much, for being a defensive guru it's their D that lacks every year. Pete Carol is a great coach, and betting against Russell Wilson is always dangerous. But I think Seattle runs into a buzz saw today...maybe?
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Good Luck this season guys 
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