Van, great run so far. Hard to put my soccer plays in without coming here first to see your thoughts. Would like to get your thoughts on where the most value lies on how to play Poland.
Exact results
Poland 1-0 +600
Poland 2-0 +1000
Poland 2-1 +950
Poland 3-1 +2100
Double results
Poland/Poland +330
Draw/Poland +450
Regular/adjusted lines
Poland -160
Poland -.5 +140
Poland +.5 -265
I could play the first 2 exact results (1-0 and 2-0) for a unit and the second 2 (2-1 and 3-1) for .5 units and either...
1-0 win 4 units
2-0 win 8 units
2-1 win 2.25 units
3-1 win 8 units
none lose 3 units
Or play the Poland/Poland and Draw/Poland for 2 units each and either win 4.6, 7, or lose 4 units.
Or do some combination of the regular and adjusted game lines. It would seem to me the most value lies in getting creative (I'm thinking the 2 double results) with exact results or just playing both double results. Thanks in advance if you get a minute, but good luck either way. I'll be on it one way or another.
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Van, great run so far. Hard to put my soccer plays in without coming here first to see your thoughts. Would like to get your thoughts on where the most value lies on how to play Poland.
Exact results
Poland 1-0 +600
Poland 2-0 +1000
Poland 2-1 +950
Poland 3-1 +2100
Double results
Poland/Poland +330
Draw/Poland +450
Regular/adjusted lines
Poland -160
Poland -.5 +140
Poland +.5 -265
I could play the first 2 exact results (1-0 and 2-0) for a unit and the second 2 (2-1 and 3-1) for .5 units and either...
1-0 win 4 units
2-0 win 8 units
2-1 win 2.25 units
3-1 win 8 units
none lose 3 units
Or play the Poland/Poland and Draw/Poland for 2 units each and either win 4.6, 7, or lose 4 units.
Or do some combination of the regular and adjusted game lines. It would seem to me the most value lies in getting creative (I'm thinking the 2 double results) with exact results or just playing both double results. Thanks in advance if you get a minute, but good luck either way. I'll be on it one way or another.
I am a big gigantic asshole for not having Croatia in that game. Should have stuck to my guns. A "no bet" is better than a losing bet, but that one hurts. I had it all lined up and didnt pull the trigger.
Menace - didnt see your post until now - but its hard enough to pick a winner without picking things like who is going to be up at HT and exact scores. Sorry. I think Poland have the advantage in the second game, but I wouldnt be too surprised to see a draw which is why I bet it at a PKem. Im just pissed that I got in at an avg of -145 and now it is -130.
GL
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I am a big gigantic asshole for not having Croatia in that game. Should have stuck to my guns. A "no bet" is better than a losing bet, but that one hurts. I had it all lined up and didnt pull the trigger.
Menace - didnt see your post until now - but its hard enough to pick a winner without picking things like who is going to be up at HT and exact scores. Sorry. I think Poland have the advantage in the second game, but I wouldnt be too surprised to see a draw which is why I bet it at a PKem. Im just pissed that I got in at an avg of -145 and now it is -130.
Let me explain. Everyone sees that Croatia beats Germany and says "croatia only beat Austria 1-0, maybe Austria is better than we think and Poland got beat handily by the Germans - so they must suck...."
Dont be fooled.
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Quote Originally Posted by Helmut:
I'm going to have to sit the Poland one out.
Now down to -130
Because of the line movement?
Let me explain. Everyone sees that Croatia beats Germany and says "croatia only beat Austria 1-0, maybe Austria is better than we think and Poland got beat handily by the Germans - so they must suck...."
I agree with the Poland play here...Your reasoning for the play is sound and both host teams will be out....
Today's early game really should put into perspective how these games play out.....Germany looked disinterested today in the match against Croatia...Look ahead games are very important when trying to determine a play on the current game...With that being said Germany should beat Austria by 3 goals or more when they meet, especially if the Poles get the win today...
Vanzack - You are turning into quite the "punter" on the pitch...
COVERS allows u to tell someone they are sexually frustrated so long as ur hands are clean
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I agree with the Poland play here...Your reasoning for the play is sound and both host teams will be out....
Today's early game really should put into perspective how these games play out.....Germany looked disinterested today in the match against Croatia...Look ahead games are very important when trying to determine a play on the current game...With that being said Germany should beat Austria by 3 goals or more when they meet, especially if the Poles get the win today...
Vanzack - You are turning into quite the "punter" on the pitch...
Look - I appreciate the compliments - but the two guys who posted last in this thread have IN THE LAST WEEK attacked me unprovoked in the main forums. My memory is not that short.
So while its great you want to be buddies now - I dont feel like snuggling just yet.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
0
Look - I appreciate the compliments - but the two guys who posted last in this thread have IN THE LAST WEEK attacked me unprovoked in the main forums. My memory is not that short.
So while its great you want to be buddies now - I dont feel like snuggling just yet.
Dont call it a comeback I been here for years Rockin my peers and puttin suckas in fear Makin the tears rain down like a mon soon Listen to the bass go boom Explosion overpowerin Over the competition Im towerin Wreckin shop when I drop these lyrics thatll make you call the cops Dont you dare stare, you betta move Dont ever compare Me to the rest thatll all get sliced and diced Competitions payin the price
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Dont call it a comeback I been here for years Rockin my peers and puttin suckas in fear Makin the tears rain down like a mon soon Listen to the bass go boom Explosion overpowerin Over the competition Im towerin Wreckin shop when I drop these lyrics thatll make you call the cops Dont you dare stare, you betta move Dont ever compare Me to the rest thatll all get sliced and diced Competitions payin the price
Read from the top. You werent even involved in the discussion, I never addressed you, and you posted this gem:
Funny shit how you could come up with a line of -380 based off a 22% number that someone throws out there......Your -380 number has no basis whatsoever..........Good one though to get everyone to think you know what you are doing...
Vanzack - You are fucking idiot and have always been so.....
The 22% number he came up with had nothing to do with you posting a -380 number.....
His number was purely based off a winning percentage of the Dodgers winning if all variables are the same....In his case, as I stated before, his number suggested that the Dodgers would win 22 times out of a 100.....That is mere fact....
You always try to come into shit and pump your internet chest like you are some fucking god.....
Well you are not......And quite frankly this outburst by you is a prime example of your character.......You do this shit all the time.....
Botom line is your number that you posted meant shit to what the poster was talking about.....
I didn't come at you with bad math, I simply asked a question and you did not respond.....In fact, what you posted was not relevant to the original post to the 22%.........
Go ahead and post your smart ass wisdom like you always do.....I'm sure we can't wait to hear it.....
Now, mind explaining how my "perception is misguided" that you are a douchebag? Lets forget the fact that you were FACTUALLY wrong in your analysis, and later pummeled in the thread. Lets focus on why you think you can post something like that, and then snuggle up to me in another thread?
Im dying to hear how I misinterpreted that statement above.
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Quote Originally Posted by ABooksNightmare:
you're funny dude.....your perception of that whole thing was misguided...
Read from the top. You werent even involved in the discussion, I never addressed you, and you posted this gem:
Funny shit how you could come up with a line of -380 based off a 22% number that someone throws out there......Your -380 number has no basis whatsoever..........Good one though to get everyone to think you know what you are doing...
Vanzack - You are fucking idiot and have always been so.....
The 22% number he came up with had nothing to do with you posting a -380 number.....
His number was purely based off a winning percentage of the Dodgers winning if all variables are the same....In his case, as I stated before, his number suggested that the Dodgers would win 22 times out of a 100.....That is mere fact....
You always try to come into shit and pump your internet chest like you are some fucking god.....
Well you are not......And quite frankly this outburst by you is a prime example of your character.......You do this shit all the time.....
Botom line is your number that you posted meant shit to what the poster was talking about.....
I didn't come at you with bad math, I simply asked a question and you did not respond.....In fact, what you posted was not relevant to the original post to the 22%.........
Go ahead and post your smart ass wisdom like you always do.....I'm sure we can't wait to hear it.....
Now, mind explaining how my "perception is misguided" that you are a douchebag? Lets forget the fact that you were FACTUALLY wrong in your analysis, and later pummeled in the thread. Lets focus on why you think you can post something like that, and then snuggle up to me in another thread?
Im dying to hear how I misinterpreted that statement above.
Well Van that's fine and I am not interested in snuggling either, however, you have stated repeatedly that I argued with math and lost. This simply is not true. I stated that flat betting would not be in my best interest and you said that I and anyone who wagered like I did was destined to be a loser. Nothing from me about math. I actually stated in that thread that I agreed with your definition of flat betting but it just isn't for me. So no worries. No snuggling here and absolutely no spooning.
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Well Van that's fine and I am not interested in snuggling either, however, you have stated repeatedly that I argued with math and lost. This simply is not true. I stated that flat betting would not be in my best interest and you said that I and anyone who wagered like I did was destined to be a loser. Nothing from me about math. I actually stated in that thread that I agreed with your definition of flat betting but it just isn't for me. So no worries. No snuggling here and absolutely no spooning.
you obviously overlook each time I bring it up that I asked you a question well over an hour before that, that you failed to answer...so your response was to the post I made an hour or so later where it appeared that you avoided the question....Maybe you were busy on your make believe yacht, but you are still missing that point...
As it was further discussed it appeared that your number was wrong to begin with, making my comment not entirely wrong...
You want facts, then lets not boast and forget about the first question asked of you which was at least an hour earlier....Somehow you seem to forget about that...You're a smart guy I'm sure you can figure that out....
...And too boot you act all high and mighty with your response to both me and cash like you are some god...Just agreeing with your logic in regards to the play...No need to be a stuck up snob.....
COVERS allows u to tell someone they are sexually frustrated so long as ur hands are clean
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vanzack - your same repeated argument is lame...
you obviously overlook each time I bring it up that I asked you a question well over an hour before that, that you failed to answer...so your response was to the post I made an hour or so later where it appeared that you avoided the question....Maybe you were busy on your make believe yacht, but you are still missing that point...
As it was further discussed it appeared that your number was wrong to begin with, making my comment not entirely wrong...
You want facts, then lets not boast and forget about the first question asked of you which was at least an hour earlier....Somehow you seem to forget about that...You're a smart guy I'm sure you can figure that out....
...And too boot you act all high and mighty with your response to both me and cash like you are some god...Just agreeing with your logic in regards to the play...No need to be a stuck up snob.....
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on Croatia to win using live wagering...just enough to win back my unit on Germany -.5...
you're funny dude.....your perception of that whole thing was misguided...
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