Phixer's NFL Continued

We have cashed handsomely on the Fins this season being one of the few calling them the most inder rated team in NFL. They covered for us big against the Chargers and did again a week ago against the Bills. Now they are in Denver facing a “struggling” Broncos. Well, the “struggling” Boroncos get to the Red Zone easily at home and their efficiency there stands at amazing 77.4% scoring a TD making them a #1 team in NFL in a Red Zone Efficiency. The Fins are 30th in that category. That is a screaming margin. The Broncos just laid an egg in St Louis and it is hard to believe they will disappoint their fans again. Yes, I know that the Miami defensive players are killing the opposition Quarter Backs with high efficiency and they will try to do it to Peyton Manning in Denver as well, but the Broncos are solid 5-0 at home and they never won a game at home with less than a TD. Peyton Manning wants to show he is a Hall Of Fame kind of a QB and the struggles in ST Louis must be erased after a 3 game away stand when the Denver fans are eager to see their idol destroying the “cocky” opposition. You have to understand the spot the Broncos drove themselves into with the loss to the rams.

“You feel like you’ve let your team down, I didn’t feel like I carried my weight (Sunday). That’s pretty plain and simple.” (PeytonManning).

The Broncos posted their lowest point total in the loss to the Rams..   In the past three seasons, Manning has thrown 10 fewer touchdowns and 10 more interceptions on the road than at home, and the ground game has recorded nine fewer TDs. With  Julius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders and Montee Ball – all sidelined – no wonder  the line dropping from 8 to -6.5 and the ATS bets divided half half.

The bottom line is that I will take the Broncos any day at home with public divided and the line dropping expecting the Fins to beat or cover against an injury plagued Broncos.

This is a 5 Units Play

DEN Broncos -6.5  -110

NFL Week 12: SEA Seahwks vs ARI Cardinals

Pete Carrtol applies pressure on Officials by revealing that NFL told him he was screwed last week. What? Screwed? In the middle of the game? No. Not that “screwed”. He was told that the officials missed two crucial pass interference calls in the Chiefs red zone preventing his team to win. Well, we all remember how the SeaHawks were official’s darlings for few seasons now. So now the officials are “avenging” their lost “honor”. Will that do any good to the SeaHawks at home against the “surprising” Cardinals who may be without Fitagerald? Nope. It will not. The Cardinals are Joker of Vegas and NFL this season and the refs will have to punish Carrol for his big mouth. Big Mouth? Really? No. It is all part of the big plan to make us believe to make us believe to make us believe. Yes. Precisely that.

The Cardinals rank near the top of the NFL with only 17.6 points allowed per game, and in their past five contests, they’ve allowed fewer than 270 yards four times.Peterson, who in the last three weeks has held Dallas receiver Dez Bryant and Detroit’s Calvin Johnson to a combined 74 yards, promises to be a challenge for the Seahawks’ less-than-stellar passing attack. Stanton is playing well going 3-1 after replacing Carson Palmer and overall the Cardinals are a better team and were the last ones to beat the Seahawks at home last December before they fell this season to Dallas on October 12th.

I am not sure the Cardinals can walk away with a win here but to cover a TD seems reasonable enough to risk money here.

This is a 5 Units Play

ARI Cardinals +7 -110

NFL Week 12: NE Patriots vs DET Lions First Ha

The Pats have shown the kind of versatility in the last two challenging games that assures the Lions that wionning or covering at  Foxboro may prove a mission impossible.  Twice in a row the Pats destroyed opposition by 22 point margin once going all in the air (against the Broncios) and then demonstrating a ridiculously great ground game in Indy. The quarterbacks  – Brady and Stafford stand a distance from each other although the Lion is not bad at all. Only compared to Brady his stats look bad.

The key to the Lion’s success lasy within the best defense in a league but an average points they score per game compared with the Pats stands at 18-32.So, the only chance the Lions stand is slowing the game down playing it in a baseball mode. Breaking the Pats concentration on defense by a long snaps and lots of rushing. The Pats may cooperate with that scheme for some time but will be exploding from time to time and I do not see the Lions holding the game for long before Brady will be finding Bronkowski.

This is a 5 Units Play

NE Patriots -4 -110 First Half

For the same reasons as in the first half pick:

This is a 5 Units Play

NE Patriots -7  -110

The best game the Giants played offensively during their dismal stretch of 5 game losing streak was against the Cowboys in Dallas. With a better defensive effort and without two costly turnovers – the Giants could have emerged winners in Dallas as well. But the reason I am picking the Giants on SNF is different than just a speculation what would happen IF. The reason for picking the Giants has to do more for not picking the Cowboys to have a 5-0 record away from home. In NFL that kind of a record is ridiculous and the refs will do everything in their power to prevent that as it is not a good business policy to have a team punishing local crowds and advertisers only to have a ridiculously great record away from home.

So, if we integrate between the two concepts – one saying that the Giants will have to come out after they learned what went so wrong in Dallas in a previous game and improve their defensive play  – the refs might cut them siome slack allowing them to play aggresively and not throwing a flags on holding. On the other hand the refs can protect Eli Manning calling offensive holding each time the Cowboys will try to execute a schemes designed to pave the way to Eli Manning for sacking him. This is how I see this game being developed.

The division of public is also favorable for the Giants covering as despite the grerat majority of the bets being on visitors – the line did not move a bit.

This is a 5 Units Play

NY Giants +3  -110