SB LVIII

What's your thoughts on the SB 58?

GL to us mah man @Wizerguy

Is this a joke?

@Wizerguy

 Good luck my Friend!!!!!

@Wizerguy

 Brother 

getting a write up together now

SB LVIII > Read andermac99 write on this game. 

    I've been hearing alot of my fellow cappers  in my area say that this is not the type of game you should be betting big on. I have to respectfully disagree with them.  This is exactly the type of game, at least for me, that you bet big on, only because I have a handicapping dynamic within this matchup that I haven't seen in a Super Bowl in a very long time.

     When I crunch numbers on a game I will always use away stats for the road team and home stats for the home team. This why I like to wait until November in order for my methods to be more predictable because at that point and time of the season, teams have played an equal amount of home and away games. In this match-up we have two good teams playing an away game so naturally I have to use both teams away game numbers to try and predict the winner. However once the human factor comes into play ie turnovers, bad calls, injuries,  we really need some real strong edges on our side to overcome some of these intangible..  so here we go SB LVIII.

   This may very well be another close game like most of these Super Bowls have been. However, there's one team that owns the better defense with very strong recent form numbers vs superior power rated teams.

( more)

Coach Andy Reid 

31-7 SU and 23-15 ATS in games in which his team has an extra week of rest and 5-0 SUATS as a dog of fewer than 5 pts. He is also 25-14 SU and 26-12-1 ATS vs NFC West opponents including 3-0 SUATS vs Kyle Shanahan's 49ers. Andy Reid has also been solid as an underdog in games in which his team is coming of consecutive SUATS wins at 21-3-1 ATS including 6-0 in games in which his team sports a.700 or greater win percentage

The # of trends that favor kc is nutty.  Just hope no major injuries.

Patrick Mahomes

 Has won six straight playoff starts and hasn't turned the ball over or been sacked in his last four playoff games. He's the only QB in NFL playoff history without a turnover or sack in four straight playoff games. Mahomes is also 10-4 SU and 13-1 ATS as a dog in his NFL career. 

    Lets be clear, this an away game for both clubs on basically a neutral field so we must use both teams away game pure points for ( PPF) and pure points against (PPA) vs their road opponents  power ratings at the time of the game. We like to use 4 away games and then tighten it up with the more recent form 3 games away for each club. Pure points is handicapping method I use to remove the noise from the final score. Int's and fumbles returned for TD / PR for TD. etc so the score I have reflected next to KC's opponents are the true / raw / pure scores: Offensively PPF and Defensively PPA

Kansas City  last 4 road games >  vs Balt 14-5 with a 29.5 power rating ( AFC Champ)/  Buffalo 12-7 with a 26 power rating( AFC Divisional) N.Eng 4-13 w/ a 16.5 Power rating wk 15 / and Gbay 10-9 w/ a 20 power rating wk 13

be back later

Kansas City   ( L4 Away)

Opp / Pure Points / Opp Power-Rating( at time of game)

GB             19-21                20

NE              27-17             16.5

Buff            27-24              26.5

Balt             17-10              29.5

                    90-72             23.5 <- ( AOPR) Ave Opp's Power Rating

      We need to get KC's True Point Differential( TPD) to come up with an estimated win margin  vs KC's AOPR ( caliber of competition) so what we need to do is  to take KC's pure points offense 90 and subtract it from their pure points defense 72 which is 18,

     We then will add 3 points for each away game because KC was at a 3pt disadvantage in each game ( not home) 18+12 =30 divided by the 4 away games is 7.5. Thats KC's win Margin vs their AOPR of 23.5

      KC is beating their AOPR 23.5 by 7.5 pure points per game which gives KC a 30.5 road rating entering this game  (SB LVIII)

Keep in mind of KC's AOPR ( caliber of Competition) 23.5 for when we get to Sf's pure point road stats

    The line on the game is a number, so we need to calculate/ handicap teams numbers in order to come with our own line or estimate on the numerical difference between teams  that are matched up against each other and their performance vs  each teams opponent and the quality of that opponent over a given ( most recent) time. ( Recent form) 

WIZE 

@Fuse

Will be finishing up Sunday 

Thanks for stopping by fellas, season went by fast

@Wizerguy

@Storm40

Wize GL my friend  

@Wizerguy

 GL Wizer  

@Wizerguy

BOL 

@Wizerguy

Thank you so much for your explanation of how to use the PP method.  That's awesome stuff.  BOL on the big game!