SB LVIII

@nmgolf57

 will be finishing it up soon. Thank bud

Kansas Citys  ( L3 Away) (Recent road form)

NEng       27-17      16.5 

Buffalo    27-24      26.5

Balt         17-10       29.5

71-51 = 20 +9 > (  add 3pts for ea road gm) = 29 divided by 3 gms = +9.5 pppg

KC is beating their AOPR of 24 by +9.5 pppg which gives them an adjusted 33.5 road rating in 3 road games . 3 games is the most recent form of how KC has performed on the road. 4 game recent form is good but to tighten things up we calculate 3 road games which includes 2 playoff games vs Buffalo and Balt. 2 top 5 teams listed on the Sagarin power rating chart

KC average offensive score in 4 road games is 22 pppg and their defense is at 18 pppg vs a 24 AOPR.

_______________________________________________-

   I've heard alot about how KC lost to 2 of the teams ( GB &Det) that SF squeaked out wins by at home The Det game was week 1. That game is irrelevant..its week 1. The GB game had some questionable calls toward the end, but it didnt matter KC still lost. The NFL is all about what have you done for me lately ( Recent Form)  and with this method, its not about one game vs GB or Det. so that talk means squat. Its about how well has KC performed as a whole, on the recent road, " in the playoffs on the recent road " ( 3-4 road games) vs the caliber of competition or AOPR that they have played and so far KC has performed very well vs quality competition in their last 3- 4 rd games (40-34 .540 win % of the 4 road opponents)  and (30-25 .545 win % teams in 3 road games)..

(Now on to San Francisco)

San Francisco ( L4 away gms )  & L3

Opp        PPF /PPA    Opp P.Rating @ time of game

Seattle         31-6            19

Philly           42-19             25

Arizona        35-29            11.5

Wash           20-10              11 

                 128-64             16 < ( SF's AOPR)       

Note: When I look at the caliber of competition or SF's AOPR  (16)  in 4 road games  and I compare  it to KC's AOPR of 23.5 in 4 rd games. This tells me that KC has a +7.5 superior scheduled rating ( +7.5 is huge) in those 4 road games vs SF's 4 road game opponents . This means that KC's offense of 23 pppg and there defense at 18 pppg vs a +7.5 Superior Schedule ( In all my years of handicapping games. I haven't seen a +7.5 SS team installed as the underdog with a +7.5 SS road defense and a +7.5 road offense  since Brady beat the Rams as a 14pt dog in SB 36. Many may not know what a +7.5 Superior scheduled team is, but I do.. and its Huge.

Just think about..The defending SB Champs installed with a short number as a dog  that is peaking at just the right time with a SB Champion DC in Spags a SB Champ QB and SB Champ Coach in Reid and one solid SB quality defesne that just ran roughshod over 2 quality opponents in Buff and Balt vs basically a paper tiger with a second year QB that has had big problems vs top quality defenses even in college and a coach in Shannahan who has been to 2 SB and lost. However,  this one will not be on him, its the quality of opponents that his team has faced and looked like world beaters vs bottom power rated teams that have no defense whatsoever.

     The eye test is real . GB was up 21-7 at the half and Det was up 24-7 in the 3rd. What does that tell you when SF faces a decent quality team. The problem with the decent quality team is that both of them GB & Det were almost last in the NFL in pure points allowed. That's terrible, If they any type of  a Spags defense ,,correction, any type of a +7.5 SS Spags defesne..they would havent even made it to the NFC Champ game,

Look at the 4 teams that SF has played on the road , 4 of the worse teams & the worse defenses in the NFL 2  3-14 teams Philly and Seattle 

SF's  L4 road: 128-64 =64 +9 = +18.5 

      SF is beating their AOPR of 16 in 4 road games by +18.5 which gives them a 34 road rating compared to KC 33.5. a 1/2 pt advantage for SF. However, we must take into consideration of the quality of SF's last 3-4  road opponents Wash , the absolute worse team in the NFL ( 3-14) 10 pure pts per game average offense and 38 pppg ave on defense. Arizona another 3-14 team that SF owns even with Murray, but Murry was still able to score 29 pts on them didn't he. If Ari had any type of defense, they could have won that game, but because they suck just like the rest of the teams SF has played in their most recent road games..they couldnt. Seattle and Philly as well.

     SAN FRAN IS A PAPER TIGER and hasn't faced a team like they are going to face all year. When they faced Balt 33-16 loss. I hear some SF backers saying " SF had 5 turnovers..gee I wonder why SF had 5 turnovers..lol. Thats because thats what top quality defenses do..they pressure and hurry the QB and force him into mistakes. Case closed

SF L3 road AOPR > 16  (97-58 =39 +9 =48 divided by 3 games =16 

SF is beating their AOPR of 16 in the most recent form road games by 16 pppg which gives them a 32 road rating entering this SB

With all this being said, lets not forget that SF can score and they have some quality WR's and a quality TE and some great defensive guys Bosa Williams etc.. but I have to cap the came as I see it. Were those guys shutting Det down when Det went up 24 -7..were those guys shutting GB down when GB went up 21-7. Were they shutting Balt down. were they shutting Joe Burrows down..will see

  riding with you

Blessings and Good Luck today , Cuz      

@chubnubbin

@WISEGUY36

 Blessings to you as well my friend. GL on the game, 

@Wizerguy 

Another amazing season!

One of covers finest.

BOL  

@packersbackers

 You're one of the best bro ..GL on the game. 

I’ve been betting on sports for a long time and I really appreciate some of the info you and others provide. Thanks again and good luck. 

@Wizerguy

 Great write up on post #54. Main reason why I think chiefs win. 49ers QB will make mistakes.He has not seen a defense like the chiefs. 

Thanks wizer  

Great call Wizen. Never bet against Patrick Mahomes. You'll lose 2 or 3 out of 4 games. This postseason all 4.

@Wizerguy

 Goooood hit!!!!!

Awesome!!!

Outstanding Work , Cuz . Well Done     

@Wizerguy

 Thank you for a great year of football! I always check who you are on each week. Much appreciated!

Great season wizer

Kansas City 25 units Hammer !

Guys thanks ..Wow !..that was some game. ..so many ebbs and flows in this game , but at the end of the day. DEFENSE prevailed and shut Purdy down when it mattered and a little bit of Mahomes magic in OT. Awesome ! see you guys next season.  

@Wizerguy

NFL Final YTD: 128-101 56% (+117.86 units)

Wrong.  Those units are false. 

Way, way off!  Not even half that many!

I tracked it all carefully.  Mistakes made.