So....if Trump closes a deal with China?

Truth be told Rush, I bought GOOG 2 days after it went IPO at 80. The first day of trading I couldn't even get my trade done as I didn't want to pay market price. My trade never went off because the price was skyrocketing so much. I guess the only people that got in at 80 had special contacts at the big brokerage houses. Anyway, the second or third day I just put in a market order. I think it opened that day at 160 after doubling and I ended up paying 228 per share (effective price of 114 since it split). I have never had a market order to take so long to get filled....it's normally a second or two but I recall waiting minutes that day. It went up 66 dollars in the pre market trading that day and as I recall it closed pushing 250. 

In all of my years of trading, I have never seen such crazy demand for a stock. Not before and not since.

Fantastic  ! 

I was leery of Google way back when, when it was a sleepy internet search engine and Yahoo dominated search, if memory serves correct.   In any event, I believed (incorrectly) that someone would be able to replicate their search engine..

They now operate in a duopoly w Facebook in digital advertising.. 

Rush. Thanks for the applause but I was a small time, nickel and dime GOOG player. I only bought 15 (now 30 post split) shares as I was also skeptical like yourself. The only reason I bought it was thanks to James Cramer. I watched his show daily back in those days and he preached to everyone watching (he begged in actuality) to at least buy ONE share of GOOG. 

He preached how the Dutch Auction process selected by GOOG had alienated the underwriters (Morgan Stanley) which resulted in MS suppressing the price in their pitch to investment houses. Underwriters in that time made big commissions on standard IPO's and the DA process was guaranteed to limit Morgan's profits on the deal. It is now well known that Morgan Stanley representatives essentially fixed the auction by suppressing the price of GOOG so that the auction would be a failure. They wanted their 4-6% commission the way that it had always been done but they weren't getting it. 

Cramer knew all of this somehow and came on his show every day for two weeks preaching that the IPO auction price was being suppressed. His intelligence on the subject amazed me when I watched his show during the first couple of days the stock went public. So honestly, I can't take credit for this move...it was all Cramer.

I used to love watching Cramer, too, and caught the show every night back in the day.    He still has an incredible passion for the markets 

I agree Rush. I don't know exactly why I stopped watching him on a regular basis. GOOG was the only stock I bought that he recommended on his show so he was a huge 1-0 for me personally. I think it's because his antics are all the same as they have been for two decades. He is aging like a stale long running nightclub act that goes on forever. 

Thinking back though, in the decade and a half since GOOG, he did a lot of flip flopping on some of his picks and pushed a few bombs too. I will never forget how hard he touted Sears for so many years. He pushed it with equal exuberance compared to GOOG. I never bought Sears, but that entire situation was an embarrassment for him. He was talking that stock up for years as a lifetime buy and hold.

I never bought in to that one thank god mostly because I have an investing rule to never invest in restaurants or retail (B&M). When I was younger a broker I knew was pushing Boston Market. I invested 5 grand and lost it all. I said never again to consumer brick and mortar retail no matter what they are selling. 

Lol... You know, I was thinking the same thing.  You happened to buy "The 1 stock" that he pitches on his show on a nightly basis.    It just so happened that that 1 stock grew to be the 3rd most valuable company in the world, just recently eclipsing the $1T !!  Truly incredible 'Gamble.

It's funny you mention Sears (SHLD).  Like you, I distinctly remember him pitching Sears for weeks/months on end !  What a bomb !  I think Cramer fell in love with Eddie Lampert, the CEO of Sears , who came from the hedge fund world.  Cramer put waaaaay to much faith in Lampert, and his ability to turnaround a struggling retailer.. It's still a bomb, too.  Sears (and its K-mart stores) can't close their doors fast enough.   Eddie Lampert totally missed the boat on the transition to the digital world.  Walmart and Target (of the big box retailers) have transitioned well, and are competing with Amazon.  There's no reason Sears couldn't have done it as well (sounds funny to say it), but they didn't have the right people in charge to make the transition to e-commerce .   

My investing mantra ; Adapt or Die

Finally, I like what you have to say about your investing rule to never invest in restaurants or retail (B&M).   You and think alike... I came to the realization years ago that consumers are a finicky bunch, and that means trends come and go...which means business, too,...  if they are not quick enough to change...

 I think this applies most particularly to the two industries you pointed out..  Restaurants and Retail. 

.19 cents per share. What a bomb as you said. Cramer should take 15 seconds out of every day on his show to apologize to anyone that bought this loser.

As far as my rule on restaurants and retail, I did make one exception when I bought Home Depot. However, I don't really see HD as true retail (in the sense that I was intending) as they have protection from digital retail. Absolutely nobody is ordering lumber and home appliances online and paying for shipping. Not even Amazon has figured a way into that business. 

I'm with you on that 'Gamble..  When I think retail, I think of apparel / clothes primarily (Kohl's, Macy's, Gap Stores, etc. )    They are all susceptible to constantly changing consumer tastes, as well as Amazon .  Most of 'em are just getting screwed because they can't keep up.

HD on the other hand is in an entirely different basket IMHO, including for the  reasons you pointed out.  What a great company, and  they are eating Lowe's lunch, too.  Lowe's closed down a store near my old house, and Lowe's store near my new house seems to have more employees than customers almost every time I go there (which is seldom).  The HDs near my old house and my new house always seems busy...   This is a narrow sample size, but HD seems to be doing much better in my experience..

With the VIX creeping up over 18 today I wouldn't expect the markets to come roaring back anytime soon. It's time to ride the roller coaster down for a while.....how far down is anyone's guess, but it's the price we must pay as long term investors. 

This inevitable downturn doesn't mean we take our eyes off of opportunities....right? So what are you guys looking at? Rush...you got anything?

Here's one I have my eye on. 

MJ....this is the ETF for all things "cannabis". It's top 10 holdings include Canopy Growth, Cronos, Tilray, Aurora Cannabis, etc....basically all of the top names in pot, hemp, THC and CBD. This ETF arrived on the scene in December of 2116 when nationwide laws were not as favorable as today (and moving forward, which goes without saying). The $26 open drew investor interest, peaking in the fall of 2018 at $40. Since then it's been in a bear market, falling all the way to $16.80 as of today. 

This is an industry in it's infancy in regard to legal venues to pursue it and I expect that the Federal Government is going to stay out of the way moving forward, letting individual states decide how to handle it legally. The biggest risks imo are on a state by state basis on taxation and black markets continuing to dominate. The state of Illinois is, for example, taxing legal weed to death and driving consumers to the same old black markets. Underground suppliers will still dominate the markets for the unforeseen future so the risks here are quite apparent. That said, there are a slew of products being developed and I can personally testify as to the anti inflammation properties of CBD. The health advantages in this field go far and beyond getting high. 

I'm tipping my toes in MJ with a very small position relative to my portfolio. Skeptics might be happy to hear that they will get 5% kicked back in the form of quarterly 1.25% dividends. 

I agree Gamble... I gotta feeling it's gonna be a helluva roller coaster here for a bit.   The market just seemed to be looking for an excuse for a hard pullback,  and here we have it in the  Corona virus.  As I type this , China market is down 8 % on the day !  Wow ! 

Truth be told , I'm not really excited about any buying at these levels.  We're still only down about 5 % from peak levels.   I only start getting interested at about 10% drawdowns.    My personal portfolio of stocks , compared to my index mutual funds, is overweight oil, so I'm taking quite a beating here these last few weeks.  For that reason,  I'm not buying anymore energy  stocks.. but For those that don't have a position in energy.... now would be a good time to start looking.   I personally like XLE ..

Just to clarify on the above,  I'm referring to the s&p 500  when broadly speaking about the decline from peak levels 

Energy is a real drag. I'm there with you on the XLE on 250 shares as well as holding 100 shares of the biggest dog in energy....XOM. I have been in both going on 15 years and I'm getting crushed to the tune of a 20% loss or thereabouts. I suppose when dividends are factored in I might be breaking even, but who invests to break even? I have been holding on to these dogs for so long that any bounce to the upside might find me sprinting to the sell button.

I'm curious as to why you like the XLE other than the fact that it's been such a horrible dog with fleas. 

Also, please chime in with your thoughts on MJ. I feel that over the next decade plus it has a decent chance to be a 10 bagger or 1000%-plus return. I bought Google with the same frame of mind 16 years ago and my thinking here is that it's worth a gamble considering the industry is in its infancy. 

I like the XLE because I think it's one of the lowest expense ratio Energy ETFs..  that's really the main reason.  I think most of the other Energy ETFs are market cap weighted , similar to the XLE, and thus XOM and CVX make up a significant weighting .   The equal weighted index ETFs are interesting theoretically, but they must trade more often to keep at the equal weighting... not good for tax purposes.

On a more macro level, there are so many people betting against oil for a variety of reasons ; concerns over climate change and an oversupply of oil being the big ones.. On the latter point, I think the oversupply problem will work itself out over time.  The (fracking) wells that have contributed to the huge growth in the U.S. the last 15 years or so are also petering out sooner than older wells. Wall Street is forcing these smaller "wildcatters" to stop spending so much , which means stop drilling so much.. This will help the price of oil... Over a long period of time.

On climate change, I just don't see Electric Vehicles taking over the world anytime soon.. so most people will still be driving cars using a combustion engine in my lifetime IMHO.. 

Regarding cannabis stocks, it's funny you mention it.  I actually own Canopy Growth indirectly.   What happened is Constellation Brands (STZ) bought a stake in Canopy Growth a couple of years ago.  What a stinker the investment has been !  STZ seemed to buy near the damn top, and my stock in STZ has suffered as a result.  STZ was cruising until they purchased that stake, too, so my limited experience is not good with cannabis/marijuana stocks.. Lol.   I don't have much inclination to do much more with it, but you make a good case for buying into the sector.

I'm actually taking a flyer on another "vice" industry... Gambling.  Penn National bought a stake in Barstool Sports a few weeks ago.    They have lots of digital users in the 21-40 age group, so developing a sportsbook app seems to make a lot of sense.  Frankly , I'm surprised the bigger casino names haven't taken a more aggressive foothold in this digital industry.  The Federal Government has already struck down a ban on sports gambling in 2018, and I think 21 states have legalized it... To me, just developing a sportsbook app is not enough for the big casinos.. You need to have access to lots of dedicated sports users, and Penn seems to have done it.   It's a small flyer.. I'll see what it does.

Penn Gambling? I will look into that one. I am familiar with Barstool and know that they get clicks and views. That's a big part of the game these days. Listening to Trump as I type this. How can anyone be against what has happened economically in this country. I do believe part of this market surge is related to the virtual 100% odds at a Senate acquittal. 

As far as the XLE, I was hoping your argument was stronger. I'm holding on only because it's tough finding stocks to buy right now. MJ fits into my current strategy of buying dogs, so I guess that makes XLE a hold. I mean, how much worse can it get?

Yeah.. ticker PENN

Watched the SOTU address from Trump as well.  I find it funny when Trump rattles off all these incredible stats...particularly ones that benefit Dem constituents... only to find the their Congressman sitting on their hands. Lol.  

Regarding the XLE. I'm with you.  And Oil is technically in a bear market right now.   It's  a hold for me.  Will wait it out, and I still believe in the long term thesis.  

Pelosi is getting hammered for ripping up Trump's speech. She showed the nation that she is a vindictive fool. It's possible her behavior last night buried the Dems. True Americans noticed when she sat on her bony rump during so many critical moments. How could she not stand for a 13 year old girl getting a scholarship? 

Rush. Just a couple of quick observations about PENN. Their EPS growth is excellent and the Barstool buyout should keep that going, so the stock could rally further.

However, I don't like the P/E surging towards 40 and the 7% short interest coupled with the recent 50% pop in stock price. I generally avoid stocks with these 6 month statistics. I would expect some short term volatility to the downside. 

Just totally classless by her.   And during the SOTU address,  she's sitting there shuffling papers around.   I kept yelling at her,                 " pay attention !    You just might learn something! "  Lol. 

Yeah, you bring up some good points to be cautious on the stock.  It's a very small position for me, almost my smallest in the portfolio, so I'm not concerned if it declined 30% tomorrow.  I view it as a high risk small/mid cap growth stock, and like most growth stocks, it has a high P/E..... On the news front,  I believe I read PENN is coming out with its sportsbook app before the NFL season in 2020, so the market can't really expect any meaningful impact to its earnings  over the next several quarters..

Most importantly, I like the total addressable market long-term, so was willing to start a very small position , and look past some of the immediate concerns you brought up.

Cramer actually had these guys on his show last week or the week before.. Check it out if you like..

Congrats Rush! PENN is on fire while MJ has set a new all time low every day that I have owned it...LOL. The news on Aurora is so bad. Losing one BILLION so fast? UGGGHHH. I don't think MJ has fully bottomed yet unfortunately. 

Meanwhile the overall markets are like Christmas every day!

How much longer can this rally last?

Yeah, I hear you about MJ..  If you still believe in the long-term thesis, and future potential losses of MJ won't kill your portfolio, then there's really no need to do anything.. It's kind of like how I feel about XLE and energy.  Energy is such an unloved sector (how appropriate on Valentine's Day.  lol.)  I will say this, though.  This corona virus has the potential to really accelerate the pain/bankruptcies  on these small Exploration & Production (E&P) companies because  Oil prices could have much further to slide.  No one knows how really dangerous the Corona virus is going to be worldwide, and China has proven themselves to be liars yet again on the information (or lack of)  they disclose (shocker !) .

  In any event, long story short, IMHO there will be more bankruptcies in the oil patch for these smaller E&P companies even if oil prices stay around these depressed levels ($50/barrel.)  The winners long-term will be the larger integrated oil companies like Chevron and Exxon.   

I find it crazy that the whole Energy Sector now makes up around 4% of the S&P.  This is nuts.  20 years ago, I bet it was closer to 15%.  AAPL, MSFT, and some of the other tech stocks are worth more by themselves than the whole energy sector !!  That is just nuts, and further reason not to abandon unloved sectors. 

Regarding the overall market , it does feel a bit like Christmas.  (It's good to be diversified, right ?)   It's hard to explain the market's moves at times, but I just stay the course.. 

I have 100 shares of MJ so it's what Cramer calls "Mad Money". It's like playing in a poker game or rolling the dice at the craps table. It could be a bust but maybe it goes to 100 in 10 years? Who knows? Either way, the money is insignificant with just 100 shares. 

The XLE is another story. I bought in in 2008 and almost to the penny I am down in stock price for every dividend I have collected. It's the king of all dogs. I should have my head examined for holding that garbage for so long. $20,000 in 2008 turned into $17,000 today with $3,000 collected in dividends. Oh well, everyone has dogs. If energy ever pops significantly, I'm kicking that dog to the curb.

Good for you , Gamble.   I figured the MJ  was mad money for you.  Still sucks,  but at least doesn't put a dent in the portfolio. 

Regarding your holding in XLE, I do have to say you had the misfortune of buying in the  mid 2000s when the fracking boom was just taking off.  Too many of these wildcatter, small drilling operations drilled,  drilled,  and then drilled  some more.  Wall street shares in the blame because they fully endorsed the mismanagement of company finances,  all in the effort to drill as much as they could and were showered w Wall street money.  The market didn't give a damn about profit.. it was all growth mode and pump as much as you can.   This absolutely killed all oil companies as we had a huge increase in global supply .    Gamble , I wouldn't beat yourself up over your investment in XLE.  No one could have seen this, particularly wall street's effort in endorsing the mismanagement of company finances for so long.

Only in the last couple of years has wall street forced more discipline on these smaller,  wildcatter drillers.  Bankruptcies are increasing.   Over a period of time, this will help normalize supply,  but I think it will take years.   The biggest beneficiaries IMHO will be the big integrated oil companies,  who can pick up drilling operations from these bankrupt companies on the cheap.

Lastly,  there is obviously all this talk about electric vehicles taking over the world in our lifetime.   Even IF this happened,  where do people really think they get their power from in their home to plug into their EV?  Most likely,  it's from  some dirty powerplant smokestack hundreds of miles away that burns natural gas.   The oil majors are again in pole position to provide this resource.   

Lightning,  welcome to Covers ..

We've talked a lot about China in this thread.   My main contention w China is they've taken advantage of other countries through cheating,  stealing,  and even  hacking of our businesses to gain an upper hand obtain sensitive trade secrets.  This costs all countries untold billions of dollars.  If Trump, through these trade agreements,  can get China to at least DECREASE their illegal behavior,  it will not only  benefit America,  but lots of European businesses that face the same thing.