Statsationals NFL Picks With Kelly

Quote Originally Posted by kaponofor3:

Why are you boxed then NewEra?

Quote Originally Posted by Slovak:



I'll chime in there hero.


1.) first off the thread came to the box with over 10k views. it didn't restart over when it came here.

2.) the thread is also a month old and has been bumped god knows how many times, so that could also be your answer to the high view count.

3.) the author made aliases for attention, so he more than likely refreshed the shit out of it for even more added attention.

and kapono isn't trolling, he is just telling you dumbfuck sheep what is up.

most of these tout fucks start with about 5 names and they all post plays, then they use the account that has the best record and then jackoff the account with the other names that they created, then they create more names to start a following.

Quote Originally Posted by Smoke_O:

Kapono Instead of trolling and insulting New Era...a quick scroll through this MONTH long thread would of shown you he is just posting for the first time today. So by common reasoning it is safe to say he is not an alias...

and what does him being boxed have anything to do with it. This is thread has been a hot topic and has been ATOP the Penalty Box for 2 straight days. Some people might want to see what all of the fuss is and why the thread is getting bumped up every 30 minutes INSIDE THE PENALTY BOX. They might want to type and express how they feel on the matters going on inside this thread

Quote Originally Posted by NewEraNaciremA:

Slovak,good points,but that doesn't take away from the fact that the accusation was unwarranted and wasn't necessary.

Quote Originally Posted by Statsational:

I have a database of stats for almost 20 years of NFL stats.  Its extremely comprehensive.  I put together about 100 trends, based on these stats, that have been successful.  Successful trends are determined by those that have been profitable over many years and many games.  The "home dog on Monday night coming off an ATS loss to a divisional opponent that is 12-0 in the last 12 games" trend (I am making this up) is not counted because 12 games do not make up enough of a sample set to determine whether or not the trend is worth playing.

The trends are complex and I can not go into each one.  Some games will qualify for multiple trends some for just one and some none at all.  The ones that give me a probability of 53% or more I will be playing.  I will post here the side and percentages as well as the amount played if you were using a Kelly System.  The games will be played all at the same time, regardless of when they are being played.  I will also post the parlays that should be played as well.  I want to see how well I can do with this.  Lets start now.

$500 Starting Bankroll

Kelly Multiplier = 1

7 Games

1. Buffalo +6.5        -        58%
2. Miami +7            -        58%
3. Detroit +1.5        -        56%
4. Cincinnati +6.5    -       55%
5. Dallas +4            -        55%
6. Minnesota +9      -        54%
7. Baltimore -1.5     -         53%

Straight Bets

1    $41
2    $41
3    $25
4    $18
5    $18
6    $11
7    $4

Parlays

1+2    $5
1+3    $3
2+3    $3
1+4    $2
2+4    $2
3+4    $1
1+5    $2
2+5    $2
3+5    $1
4+5    $1
1+6    $1
2+6    $1
3+6    $1
4+6    $1
5+6    $1
1+7    $1
2+7    $1

Lots of dogs this week. 

If anyone has a specific trend they are curious about let me know and I can run the numbers for you.

Quote Originally Posted by Bill_Stax:

Lets look at the evidence shall we?

The claim is that Statsational created aliases in order fluff himself and bolster his rep artificially. There are several evidence based contradictions to this charge.

First and foremost, why were no other accounts from the thread put into the penalty box (except for one started in October 2010 which was clearly a different poster if you read his past posts)??? If in fact there are aliases why let them continue unpenalized??? So the rule is someone can create aliases all they want but only the principal alias is penalized??? No, that makes no sense.

Most of the poster's in his thread joined years ago. You're telling me this guy created aliases (and specific writing/posting styles for each one), sat on them for years, then created a principal alias with a name and introductory story that matches his capping technique (based on stats and numbers), gambling that he would actually win with the principal account??? No this is not consistent with the linesman's interpretation of this guys supposed scheme which involves fishing with multiple aliases and going with the lucky one which happens to win. If statsational was fishing he only used one account which really isn't fishing. Statsational did not create a generic account rather a deliberate and unique account.

Secondly, there are many posters in the thread who praise him who are above suspicion because they have many years of membership and their own established styles. When you come up with a credible sounding capping method, then do incredibly well (be it luck or skill) there will be plenty of legit people wanting to praise you and encourage you to keep posting and doing analysis. There would be absolutely no need to risk being penalized by creating one or two (which from looking at all the posts is the absolute most against all odds number of accounts he could have theoretically made) fake accounts.

Third, the guy is intelligent and thoughtful. He is not coming in here and saying he has inside information. He is trying to explain complicated betting concepts to people at large. This is not consistent with tout methods of operation.His attitude has been one of humbleness and detached objectivity, not the emotional chest bumping and irrational exuberance that most touts use to sucker in suckers.

In my analysis there was one account that was a possible candidate for an alias account. An alias account would typically be created not long ago, have few posts and perhaps have a writing style similar to the principle account. This poster asked a question relating to Statsational's insistence on not directly divulging all of his trends. This is the only account in the thread that is even remotely suspect but in any popular thread you will find accounts with low post counts, recent join date and praise for the capper. But then again even this possible (not probable but possible) alias's question challenges the idea that a capper with a good system would not divulge his picks. Because as long as you don't totally give away the system itself you still retain all the future advantage.


Now the repeated pattern of touts that one of the linesman posted does in fact exist. However Statsational does not fit that profile in any way.

I think in fact there is another pattern at work here which goes something like this:

-A good capper comes on and starts winning, but not in a harmless way like so many who are allowed to keep posting because the powers that be attribute allowed capper's success to luck.

-Covers sponsors express wishes to get rid of good capper who they see as threatening because he is not winning by luck but rather by similar systems books use to predict outcomes.

-Covers follows wishes of the sponsors and tells linesman "our computer guys say this guy with a good record has created multiple accounts".

-linesman put poster in penalty box under the assumption he fits the regular tout pattern, based largely on the assumption that covers is an honest outfit and would not lie and claim posters have multiple accounts when they don't.

-linesman believes what he says when defending decision to box good and honest capper

-books suppress threats to their continued domination of the average sportsbettor