Stock market soaring under Democratic leadership.

I guess another way of asking is what experts, articles, studies are you basing your ideas of this on?

I wouldn’t get defensive and see it as a personal attack on you.  

It is legitimate question.  When folks see your name they might think you are into this sort of thing and could lend some ideas to them.  

Haha I am not the one saying that gas and food are what they use to determine, in fact I said that there are MANY types of inflation...I think you missed that part. 

Yes the FED increasing their balance sheet created inflation, just not CONSUMER inflation, also said that above I guess you missed that. I also said that the increase in gas/oil was germinated when the reduction in supply happened when fringe frackers went our of business, when speculative development was cut and companies went out of business.

You are not participating in the forum to make comments like this. Thanks for the reply but you really have no idea what you are talking about here, better to keep to cut and paste articles instead of making a generalization on a topic you are very very wrong about.

I see.  I was referring to this: Inflation does not pop out of nowhere in a year, this has been building for over ten years and inflation has been here for multiple years, what brought it to the TV for the masses to see is the price of oil and gas, but inflation has been here for a long long time just denied and suppressed so the FED could keep rates low.

Correct...the general consumer thinks of inflation as food price gas price oil price car price...that is inaccurate. Inflation even on the consumer level does not come from nowhere, even when there is a supply constraint it STILL takes time to flow through, so the move in M1 (which still was never answered what it means and why it doesnt correlate to the FED asset chart) the move would take longer than immediate correlation to cause inflation if THAT were the cause, it is not the cause. The inflation cause to me is a supply shock move, so supply curve has been theoretically pushed left and so prices are higher given that demand is consistent. That is not a M1 demand move, M1 in its old school theory causes an increase in demand because more dollars are chasing a set basket of goods, but as we know supply has been an issue which COMBINED with a theoretical M1 move would amplify inflation but if M1 were the root cause then we would have seen inflation well before when the government increased M1 and that was not at all immediate, supply issues lagged and finally have move through the chain to the end consumer and we see the impact.

Obviously, I am not wrong at all — at least according to other experts I cited and quoted.  

Obviously, I can say that you are wrong.  Because you haven’t backed your opinion up with anything at all.  

I have also told you before it is copy and paste not cut and paste. Haha!

It is simply my background and I, assume, it is not really your background.  I don’t try just to give my opinion  I like to back it up with something basic that the average person can understand.

If you like I can recommend some articles or videos that can help you understand this better.  

Of course, folks on here see your name and think you can help them.  So, there is no need to get offended by this.  We can all learn things.  That is what makes it so good to read other’s thoughts and studies.

But, absolutely the sudden influx of money and supply chain and the policies that caused them are issues that cannot be swerved.

Take my word for it — that is what drove the sudden spike in inflation — nearly all inflation indices.

But to just dismiss someone because you don’t agree with them AND you do not have anything substantial to back your opinion up with —- well, you can see how that looks. 

Yes, most of this was addressed above.  The lag was pointed out.  The FED measure of core inflation was looked at.  The use of PCE was looked at.  But you have to see the money supply being held as well.  Like mentioned — the folks, banks, businesses etc. — were all holding.  But then the available money, demand and supply issues all meet at once now.   

And as we all know the FED has awful timing with this sort of thing.  

Some of us have advocated a huge increase instead of these smaller ones.  You see time and again, by the end the FED has finally caught up and is too high, etc.  So, now it can be a bumpy road.   One of the articles touched on this as well. 

But please read both articles.  They are very good ones. 

@Raiders22

 I think you need to read back for a few years in this forum to make the comments you do, but I think in reality you really do know the situation but are trying to make the little digs you do towards me, it isnt the first time and it is obvious. The reason why I have not shared detailed information as you well know is that Detox makes personal attacks towards others and looks to put others down on trades they make, comments they make even comments they dont make. So prior to him being in this forum it goes way way back we had great discussion and communication here but he devolves things into personal insult and attacks and that is why he has been warned that even ONE more and he is finished posting here. I dont have to explain anything to you if you wish to find out more then read back..if not please follow the rules of the site and be respectful to others and leave the detective work for people who might know a bit more than you ever could.

On the topic of copy/paste, cut/paste, glue/paste any term you choose to use I do not find value in regurgitating someone elses comments as a means to validate my position, people are not interested in reading a summation from a website or blog they want to have back and forth discussion. I am not interested in who can post the longest copy/cut/paste response and that person is right kind of approach I like to share different opinions but also back up what the concept is and have a mutual back and forth. You have never been one to discuss back and forth, never in the multiple times Ive engaged with you it is always posting someone elses words and then laying the little digs you do as a means of put down to prove your position...but in reality I dont even KNOW your position because you do not say it. You say others positions, but I am not wanting to read others words I want to hear only yours and to go back and forth on your words and that never happens.

Its ok that you might disagree with me the problem is you do not say WHAT you disagree with you post someone elses position and then say as you have multiple times today that I do not know what I am talking about because I do not post other peoples summations and words to validate my own theory...Id rather hear WHAT you disagree with and WHY from YOUR mouth, pin point what you disagree with PRECISELY and then say WHY you do and give a counter point or perspective...you have never done that in all the time we talk so at some point I asked you to not engage with me if all you have is other peoples words and personal digs. Notice that I never said you do not know what you are talking about...never said it, I have no need to say it. I say I do not agree with certain points being made from other words that you pasted...

So feel free to discuss with me but I find no value or entertainment or "learning" as you say from reading you posting others words...so if that is too much to ask that YOU discuss with ME then please feel free to not reply, I was not engaging with you at the start I am never looking to engage with you because you are not trying to have a discussion so what is there to say?

Yeah, that’s wrong. 

If you want to have a discussion about what’s wrong with the forum we can do that but please don’t fud my name and expect me to remain silent. 

Exactly 

Maybe it is easier to do it one point at a time.  This was the main point I disagreed with AND I said it in my own words.  THEN I backed it up with other's opinions that agreed me.  THEN I backed it up with DATA that further proved my point.

All I am asking you to do is to back your point up here with evidence NOT just keep repeating the same thing over and over and saying it is your opinion AND expecting people to just believe you are correct and that is all there is to it.

No matter what you say about inflation building up for over 10 years I say you are wrong about this.  I showed you data to back it up and quoted various others.

All I ask is that you substantiate your opinion some way.

I do not know if you went to university or not.  But if you were to go to an economics class and write a paper you would have to have footnotes and the like to back up your opinion.

By the way, there is nothing wrong with admitting you were wrong.  This is obviously one of the occupations where they say you can be right, like the weatherman, 50% of the time and still keep your job.

So, if you were to introduce some data OR to disprove my data -- then one of us have to reconsider our position.

You cannot just say it is me quoting others.  Because even then you have to reconsider, because these are recognized experts that disagree with your opinion AND they back it up with evidence.  No good debate/discussion has ever just been done without supportive evidence.  Even in sports folks will trot out stats or examples of why they think a certain baseball pitcher was the greatest ever, etc.  So, in a more data-driven field like economics it should be more necessary for a good discussion.

So, if you are steadfast, the way the original conversation went it DOES seem as if you want to deny that what caused this was NOT policies from Biden and/or Democrats.  If so, I can understand supporting your political side.  I just cannot do that from my economic background -- I HAVE to separate the two, honestly.

So, start with that highlighted portion. 

Hey guys, 

Dow futures are down another 400+, Nasdaq futures are down 250… The German DE40 looks like it’s about to fall off a cliff. 

Can we start making predictions about how low this thing is going to go and how long the bear market will last? 

Honestly I care about who is to blame 3% and care about making money in the future 97%. 

@wallstreetcappers

My position is plain--you are wrong.  Inflation has NOT been building for over 10 years.  I do not just like to say to people that they are wrong.  It sounds rude, especially when it is obvious they have not studied up on a subject before just forming an opinion.  I do not like to just say that flat-out to folks -- it sounds arrogant.  BUT you seem to have no problem sounding arrogant and making it sound like others do not know what they are talking about because they say you are wrong.  

As far as digs -- I do not take them.  You do it and you devolve the conversation into threatening to ban folks.  Just because I try to politely tell folks where they are wrong --it is NOT a dig.  Sure, you try to sound like you know this sort of stuff.  BUT you do not, and it has become more evident.  I do not take digs at you because of this.  I try to support or backup when I am trying to point out where you have gone astray with your reasoning.

This is stuff I know about and have written on and have spoken on,  People will always respect your opinion more if you have things that supoort it.

When I give a talk or write, I will always support it with data, examples, expert's opinions, and other things that people can look up and/or verify.

I am sorry if you think someone should just yell their opinion without support.  To me, that is immature and gets nowhere in a scientific or data-driven field.

To say you are NOT interested in reading what experts say in a field is beyond unreasonable.  Unless, you just want to be stuck in your own opinion (apparently based on nothing) and not advance your knowledge in a subject. 

This sort of thing is a learning process for sure.

Of course, you have to be tiptoeing in a discussion with you.  BECAUSE you see any slight or disagreement as a personal 'dig' at you.  Then you claim personal attacks and threaten to ban folks.  You cannot be so sensitive when people call you out on things.  That is why it helps when you BACK your opinion up with data/evidence/examples.

It is an open forum.  So, to say you were not discussing it with me is just plain silly. 

You guys were NOT getting anywhere with the 'discussion' before. 

I do not like to do it.  BUT it is easy to see why someone would say WHAT have you EVER been right on in here?  You have been wrong about the stock market, FOREVER, for example.  But that is fine -- WE all have opinions.  We are ALL wrong plenty in the investment field.  You are ALWAYS negative about any stock or idea anyone ever brings up. 

People ask your opinion on a stock AND all you do is point out all the reasons NOT to buy it, etc.  So, it is reasonable to ask you what have you been right about?  This is not a 'personal attack' IT is a legitimate question.  If there are some examples -- provide them is all that is asked of you.  The other fellow provided some of his, as an example.

I say you are wrong again.  I am just asking you to tell me why you believe the way you do.

There are many sources online or books and articles that can help you with this.  I am always ready to help people out in this area by recommending some.  It happens to be an area I can help in.

But as a moderator you cannot be sensitive and threatening folks -- it is a bad look.

As a person on a forum with your name -- people will expect you to know and have an opinion on things in this area and maybe some recommendations.  

I am just asking that you support it.

I also understand why you would NOT want to make predictions.  There can be blow-back and disgruntled folks when folks miss out on a bet on a game.  So, it is more so, for sure, when they miss out on a stock suggestion, or such.  So, no problem with you keeping quiet there.

I always enjoy discussing things more with you than many others.  Mainly, because I prefer to discuss things with folks I disagree with.  I do not need to discuss things with a cheerleader on my opinion.

There are very few Liberals on here that I can discuss things with.  They just yell back and forth and go to name-calling in general. 

You happen to be someone that will discuss things I disagree with.  I like that!

There are many, many times you are right and I agree with you BUT I never say anything there.  Maybe I should more often.  I just do not find it necessary.  For example, the other day I said I agrees with something you had written in the NFL forum -- you were spot on AND I said so!

That was long-winded I know.  But hopefully, you get the gist of it!

Hopefully, you understand this as positive criticism and not a personal dig at you.  Because you do have some valid points a lot of times and the people on here respect your opinions -- you can see this by the folks above. 

I agree.  The best thing to do is to find the way to make money by making what moves and when.

I will say this in general.  The things that put this in place with this market have not changed.  Until they do we can expect more of the same.  Staving off a bear market is key now. 

One of the things that have been very, very successful for me in the past when coming out of recessions is the Russell 2000.  This to me is very key.  The general reasoning here is that the smaller companies are more streamlined and come out of a recession a lot quicker than the larger companies do.

For example, I almost timed the last one perfectly.  I made ~40% in the time I was loaded up on R2K.  I almost timed it perfectly.  I have done this the last 3-4 recessions.   This time I just happened to get luckier.

That is something you can keep an eye on.

You can also pick out some of the bigger individual stocks that are/will be undervalued at the time and grab them on sale.  But to do this you are not as diversified and really need to know where to pick and choose or trust someone else that knows this area well.

One market that will be harder to get a grasp on -- at least to me -- is the NASDAQ.  I keep thinking it has further to fall.  The other markets like S&P I think are trying to settle.

As I mentioned up in this thread some -- the FED is always late to the party and will always over adjust at the end -- that we have to keep an eye out for.

The housing market in certain pockets has started to flatten out.  I am not sure how long before the rise in interest rates will take to present opportunities there.  But I think by the end of the summer we should see things settle.  A key component here is going to be the unemployment numbers.

As I also pointed out above, the supply chain stuff is HUGE and this will have to be solved. 

Certain stocks, for example, are very depressed because of this. 

Lumber prices are not where they were, for example.

I have been short in certain markets for about 3 months now and have no plans to switch that, yet.  I am long oil right now and have been since before the year started.  But all of these I will, for sure, close out by the end of the summer.

I just do not see anything to change my mind.  Maybe some mid-term election sentiment could have an effect.  But the basic fundamentals have to be changed in order for any of the markets to bottom out.  The inflation has to be solved -- not just by the FED -- but with the money supply and supply chain problems.

@wallstreetcappers

 Curious to what your thoughts/ predictions of June 1st will bring?

From not till then, and from June 1st for the short future and long future thereafter?

@Raiders22

 I am not required to submit a paper to you or quote references, this is a discussion not an econ class, what the crap are you talking about?

If you are wanting to disprove what I am saying then you must identify WHAT it is you are disproving, then state how you see it differently..that is called a discussion. We are not in an econ class we are not in a symposium of quotation publication. This is a discussion, maybe that is the part you are not understanding.

So please feel free to say exactly what it is you disagree with and why, then state your position...see that is how a discussion works. If you like to copy and paste other peoples words you are welcome to do that but it is not a discussion of original thought from person to person. If I want to read someone elses summation of a concept I can easily do that without the need of you doing it for me. Its ok if you are not able or interested in having a discussion, that seems to be the case with you. I ask for your words with detail and you throw me into academia again, which I am not interested in comparing papers of theorists with you...rather I enjoy actual person to person discussion with respect for the other person.

As to the Detox issue, maybe you should not have put your nose into something you have no understanding of, it is none of your business and off topic.

@wallstreetcappers

 I stated it as plainly as I could.  Inflation has not been building for over 10 years.  You are wrong.  As I explained above, it is related to the things in the last couple of years.  That is MY opinion. 

@Raiders22

 Of course it has and I asked a question that you never answered, what is inflation to you? Is inflation CPI for you or is it given the actual definition as to the term?

Inflation has been building and developing since the FED expanded its balance sheet, inflation is not ONLY consumer focused, but I think you get that and are intentionally being rude and difficult.

One other question, so you are heavy on this WRONG deal, that it seems to be something you value very highly that I am wrong, well ok that is fun for you I suppose but tell me where have I been WRONG about the stock market? Please as YOU do to ME regularly, quote me actual content I POSTED that I have been wrong about the stock market. Please quote me as many literal actual words and paragraphs about THIS market within the last year or so and show me where I have been wrong. Make it like one of your econ papers, quote lots and lots of cut and paste work, quote me with dates and times and lots of actual words I used where I was WRONG about the stock market. It was your choice to say those things and to focus on WRONG, so feel free to back it up with a large ammt of actual content or please feel free to apologize and go bug someone else because I am not interested in trying to nit pick to death and resort to right vs wrong, that is a waste of time and accomplishes nothing.

@wallstreetcappers

 Of course it has not.  Not even close at all.  No matter which index you use.  For this discussion we were using the core inflation the FED uses -- PCE, for example.

Yes.  You stated it was from over ten years ago.  Correct, I say it was much more recent.

You do not think you have been negative about the stock market for years?  I do, maybe I am wrong and you were advocating getting in in the last couple of years.  But you more or less ran a guy off that called you out on how incorrect you have been on the market while it has been going up for so many years.  When you do that to people and they get frustrated with you -- you cannot get upset with them.  It does not bother me.  But as you can see it does irk some folks.  I contend it is because of your name.  They expect you to be knowledgeable enough on this to give some advice from time to time.  You do not, that is all.

Dow Jones 32,000 (down over 500 today) - where are the fab5.

@Raiders22

 I have been WRONG, now quote me....either quote me or apologize and back off. YOU said it now get to work copy and pasting, OR apologize and get lost.

I asked you a question about inflation, where did you define it with ME that you were considering only consumer inflation? Where did I qualify the discussion that inflation is ONLY consumer based?

That is ridiculous and you know it, inflation is not only consumer driven or focused...how absurd.

@I_Need_A_Detox

 I think below 30 where it should be