Weed The North - Season Long Raptors Thread

Nets @ Raps

Lean:

Nets +10....something still very off with Toronto...i think they still win as they usually do at home on a Friday night, but the Nets are no joke and actually match up well vs this Raps roster...Toronto something like 114-107?

Well...did i count correctly? 8 different Raps in double digits? I cant ever recall that happening in the nba since???

Looks like the Raps are back now...just keep winning games baby ...that 76ers loss to the Hawks last night was an excellent surprise result for my divisional winner future 

Raps @ Wizards

Lean:

Wizards +6.5 but Raps winning the game...is this the official Bradley Beal get out of dodge audition game for the Raps? The more i think about it, the more id like to see him in a Raps uniform...he would be instant offense off the bench playing along side Vanvleet, Wright, Anunoby etc...this spot doesnt bode well for Raps ats, as Washington still will give decent effort at home...however Wiz play no defence so if the Raps look to take an early lead, they may end up winning in DD wire to wire...i would never wager this game preflop as there is just too many unknowns...plus the early start time, who knows which players hit the strip clubs, etc...

Only thing here that peaks my interest his how Beal will play...i dont bet player props, but if i did, i would be looking at taking the over blindly here for any Beal options.

 scripted

next up @ celtics on wednesday on national tv 

Leaning Raps ML...they will show up this time on tv against their divisional rivals.

How'd you like the over bro? Lmk when the line comes out how you feel about it ~ leaning Raps to win this one too. Boston are in a huge mess right now & teams don't change over night 

Im done guessing totals in the nba...its either a blind over or pass...given how the league is now hookers with draftkings and fanduel, they want scoring and stats for players...just look at last nights scores for verification...its been like this all season...teams are both in the bonus seemingly at the 8min mark of every quarter...teams are happy trading open jump shots and 3s in order to either get the rebound or get the ball back after a score...its a video game now being marketed to the xbox millenial generation...this is not "my" nba which i have loved and followed my entire life...its either we adapt or die...i choose to adapt and adjust my expectations of this league and accept whats happening based on my eyeball test.

However, the Raps here are in a great spot catching a team in the midst of a full team chemistry meltdown...and what a surprise, Kyrie is at the center of it once again...if i was Ainge, i would do my best to dupe a bottom dweller like Atlanta or Sacramento or Chicago into taking him for someone young and decent in return...let Kyrie rot in the nba hell of a forever bottom dweller and eat his pride night in night out playing for a loser...it would be the ideal scenario for a jerkoff like him.

Raps are playing winning team hoops right now...i like their chances here.

I've been following you for a month, really appreciate your insight. 

How the hell are the Celtics favourites tonight? I had this capped at Tor -6...trap game?

Thanks, i appreciate the kind words and feedback....always nice to know people are reading my ramblings.

Celts have to be favs here simply based on home court...but its basically a pickem scenario here...select the winner and cash your ticket...games rarely land on 1...and Boston is a public team...i really dont believe in terms like trap, sharp, public, square, etc...but i do look at everything involved...at the end of every single sporting result, there is a winning ticket holder, a losing ticket holder, and sometimes a push ticket holder..."public" is all perception of what "more" people will likely wager based on human psychology, rather than pure capping...am i a sharp or square? Its meaningless, i back dogs and favs evenly...its all a game to game scenario plus a teams current mojo or flow, throw in travel, schedule, refs, streaks, injuries, tnt/espn storylines, etc...youve got a whole heck of a lot of hidden capping angles that the common hoops bettor simply dont understand...i rarely bet pregame anymore as i have found my bankroll constantly growing from ingame wagering based on +EV off an original cap, so my leans are just my opinions...how guys on covers post nightly in the mains and think they are winning when betting 3+ bets every night is a comedyfest...less than 2% of the people there are actually winning based on documented plays...credit to those rare unicorns.

Me? Im a die hard Raps fan who has chosen to follow them very closely this season...luckily i am up a bit with my inseason nba bets thus far, and am sitting very patiently on a few significant futures which are currently going my way.

Go Raps Go 

Rare pregame wager:

Locked in:

Raps ML +135...2u

Raps +3.5 (-115)...3u  

When i woke up, this was +1...now its +3.5...i dont believe in bloodbaths, but being on the house's ledger is always a good idea...way too much money is here backing this line movt...why? Because CryRie is playing? Big schtingking deal...give me the better team overall catching pts, let alone the leagues best proven road team this season.

 on the ML & over; lets cash it 

Suns @ Raps

Lean:

Suns +8

The Missisauga Raptors will be auditioning several new players...dear lord seems like Phx ML might even have a legit shot here...knowing how the season has gone so far, i wouldnt be surprised if the Raps win by 4-6pts here...this game smells similarly to their recent home win vs Atlanta

I really like the Under 224 here...where is the scoring going to come from with these Halifax Raptors B team?

Grizzlies @ Raps

Lean:

Raps -10....line was 12.5 just an hour ago...i would have taken Raps even at that line...this sets up nicely.for tue Raps as their staple Saturday night in Canada blowout game...after the Phx near disaster, i fully expect them to come out firing early, get a quick 10 pt lead by the end of the 1st Q, build on it in the 2nd Q and be up approx 18-22 by halftime...bold indeed but i think Memphis is walking into a woodshed type of game...i would take my chances late and hope there is no backdoor moose cover.

Raps 120-95 is how i see this going...plus they know now the Sixers loss gives them a bit more breathing room for my futures division wager...yes Raps social media junior secretaries follow me here and know about my divisional 6 figure wager 

^^^ holy moly

Kings @ Raps

Lean:

Kings +10

Raps are the classic zig zag team this year...for someone not into them like myself, and see them as just another team wont understand the dynamics of their ups and downs...they just see a great overall record and assume they are a covering machine...but they are really a self occuring roller coaster...Nick Nurse has set up this team to treat each individual regular season game as an experiment for something greater...hes looking for situational basketball now in order to know what to do come May and June...so a random Tuesday night home game as a DD fav vs a western mediocre team with no real history or rivalry against sets up nicely for him to practice XYZ during tonights game...obviously the end goal is to win each game, but not at the importance of the spread...at home, Raps tend to play up to the level of their opponents on weekends, and similarly down to the poor ones on weekdays...its a crazy long time decades long trend...but a game like this smells like a 4-6 pt grind it out type win for the Raps...and they better be very careful, if they dont play solid D, Sac could get hot from 3, score a ton in transition with their youngsters and top pace, and steal a win here...especially if Leonard sits out again, and as of right now hes a GTD yet again...Nurse not sure if he wants him tonight or tomorrow, but if i was to guess, he doesnt need Leonard to win tonight, but will tomorrow in Indiana

i just read they will probably rest leonard again vs the pacers 

Where theres smoke theres fire...hes likely carrying an undisclosed injury and Ujiri wont ever let it out 

Raps @ Pacers

Lean:

Raps +6

Raps ML +200

Toronto simply matches up well vs Indiana...ans their recent h2h shows it...in a regular season game, i like the better team getting 6pts almost anytime, especially when we are talking about a legit road team who is clearly playing to win as much as possible to get the #1 seed overall....laugh now i can handle it, but if Game 7 is played in Jurassic Park in mid June, that could put David Stern into a coma 

Raps @ Rockets

Lean:

Rockets +3

Rockets ML +135

Weird line here, completely overlooking how well Houston has played at home...this is an insult to all Rocket players to be a dog at home to Toronto...Harden will go for 82 and apologize to Kobe on IG

This has become Leonard and Siakam's team now...Lowry is reeling mentally, and his game is just not where it needs to be...this is not a panic type comment, the team is loaded and built for a 7 game series against anyone in the East...but yes there is definite chemistry issues oncourt with Kyle and Kawhi...time will fix this between now and the playoffs, this team is too talented and deep not to figure this out...its a nice problem to have and most teams would dream of this being one of their biggest concerns at this stage of the season.

Scal...you making some good money on Raps games this season eh?

I blanketed that game against the Rockets. Solid capping as usual man, really appreciate it. Just wish every team had a guy breaking it down like you, haha!