All Forums | Poker

2 of the worst beats in one hour I've ever had

Participants:

Posts: 58

MrGlue

Prospect

Joined: Sep, 2009

Posts: 250

Posted: Feb. 12, 2011 - 3:14 AM ET #51

Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

here's my only problem with 1).

This is how limit games are played (especially low limit games like 2/4 3/6 but this play can happen at any limit).

If you limp with 3 5 suited hoping to catch a flop, you'll flop a straight less than 1% (say 100-1) of the time like OP did here. Odds on flopping 2 pair is about 1.3% (73-1) and odds of flopping 2 of 1 of the upaired cards for trips is about 2% (49-1).

Now I would not want to flop a flush with those two cards for obvious reasons. People will be chasing one card higher flushes and could also have a higher flush on the flop already. You'll get felted in the process if you don't have the discipline to lay it down. Oh there's also the possibility of the other person flopping the higher straight as you have the sucker's straight with 3 5.

With those odds, at a nine man table, it appears that trying to flop a monster is not a profitable venture if you do it on a regular basis (which could happen at a very weak inexperienced 1-2 table where guys only want to see cheap flops and you put $2 in every time) you can easily bleed your stack this way... and you have the worst two cards of anyone limping most of the time.

Comments?

All good points... I'll try to remember to filter some stats.

Without any statistics, I will say, that with 2+ limpers I narrow my folding range considerably.

Assume they're limping w/: med/small pairs, smaller suited aces, off suit broadways, some suited broadways... 53s has around 30% equity... getting 3.5/1 we certainly shouldn't fold.

But, if we raise, we're bluffing. And, against more than one opponent, it's more likely that we're going to see a flop and miss (more times than not, which you pointed out). So, we're going to have to bluff on multiple streets. That's going to require some specific reads... So, it shouldn't be our standard line.

That leaves us with calling.

Really, our discussion is pointing out why 53s is such a shitty hand, lol.

Also wanted to mention, I started out as a limit player. I slip back into that type of thinking sometimes... good catch.

Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

here's my only problem with 1).

This is how limit games are played (especially low limit games like 2/4 3/6 but this play can happen at any limit).

Comments?

MrGlue

Prospect

Joined: Sep, 2009

Posts: 250

Posted: Feb. 12, 2011 - 3:31 AM ET #52

Quote Originally Posted by runlagos:

agree and again in my opinion its situational based and a lot of feel for the table from past hands and experiences is a great part of the current hand and future actions you take.

Absolutely. Reads can turn standard folds into raises, and standard calls into folds, etc...

wizardofroz

Captain

Joined: Oct, 2004

Posts: 6768

Posted: Feb. 13, 2011 - 2:34 AM ET #53

That is the most frustrating thing about poker. You can play a hand perfectly, as you did, yet still lose your ass. I think the game is just designed, online or live, to keep you from consistently winning.

Scalabrine is all or nothing with his posts (mostly nothing), but this time, he nailed it beautifully with his analysis in this thread.

scalabrine

Banned

Joined: Sep, 2006

Posts: 28221

Posted: Feb. 13, 2011 - 10:36 AM ET #54

Quote Originally Posted by MrGlue:

All good points... I'll try to remember to filter some stats.

Without any statistics, I will say, that with 2+ limpers I narrow my folding range considerably.

Assume they're limping w/: med/small pairs, smaller suited aces, off suit broadways, some suited broadways... 53s has around 30% equity... getting 3.5/1 we certainly shouldn't fold.

But, if we raise, we're bluffing. And, against more than one opponent, it's more likely that we're going to see a flop and miss (more times than not, which you pointed out). So, we're going to have to bluff on multiple streets. That's going to require some specific reads... So, it shouldn't be our standard line.

That leaves us with calling.

Really, our discussion is pointing out why 53s is such a shitty hand, lol.

Also wanted to mention, I started out as a limit player. I slip back into that type of thinking sometimes... good catch.

Question on the bold:

I went to the poker odds calculator and drew up the scenario you stated (if I read it correctly) only because I didn't think it was profitable to limp there. I dealt the following cards:

https://www.cardplayer.com/poker-tools/odds-calculator/texas-holdem

1. 3 5 hearts to myself

2. Opponents: A2Clubs, 77 (med pair), KJ spades

The odds of me winning are 17.67%. We need 4.7-1 pots odds vs. the 3.5-1 you will be getting ($1 small blind fold, $2 BB call, and 2 callers for $7 in the pot before your call at a 1/2 NL game) if you are in late position.

That puts you at a significant disadvantage if my math is right and I am interpreting your scenario correctly.

Why limp? It's a loser over the long term in an attempt to catch a monster (which will probably only keep 77 in for one more round when an overcard, most likely, hits the turn so you won't be felting anyone)...

scalabrine

Banned

Joined: Sep, 2006

Posts: 28221

Posted: Feb. 13, 2011 - 10:52 AM ET #55

Quote Originally Posted by wizardofroz:

That is true unfortunately, no matter what your skill level. The bright side is that poker is a marathon, not a sprint. You will have peaks and valleys to run through in the marathon but if you cross the finish line ahead of most of the others, you're successful.

Considering Phil Galfond, one of the greatest poker minds in the world today, is on a $1.4 million dollar downswing, it's pretty intimidating to think we throw ourselves into the poker world fray on a daily basis for profit.

THIS is what he does to learn:

When I play poker for high stakes, I think about every hand I play as overall strategies, what I would do with a different hand, what my opponent is doing differently and whether I think it's good or bad, or if I can see the merit in either the way he played a specific hand or more general strategies... basically everything possible. And more importantly, I continue to think about those things throughout the day or week. Even if I don't want to think about it, I do, to the point where I often am not listening when people talk to me and I consistently have trouble falling asleep because I can't quiet my mind.

Since we all have jobs/school, that's a lot to digest/dedicate ourselves to if we are not full-time poker players.

Remember this when you attempt to move up in stakes given what your opponents dedicate to the game at that level.

MrGlue

Prospect

Joined: Sep, 2009

Posts: 250

Posted: Feb. 13, 2011 - 1:58 PM ET #56

Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

Question on the bold:

I went to the poker odds calculator and drew up the scenario you stated (if I read it correctly) only because I didn't think it was profitable to limp there. I dealt the following cards:

https://www.cardplayer.com/poker-tools/odds-calculator/texas-holdem

1. 3 5 hearts to myself

2. Opponents: A2Clubs, 77 (med pair), KJ spades

That puts you at a significant disadvantage if my math is right and I am interpreting your scenario correctly.

I used Poker Stove. With that program you can assign your opponents ranges instead of specific hands. If our opponents ONLY limp with the three hands you mentioned then we're going to have a different amount of equity against different opponents who limp with the RANGE of hands I suggested.

I'm not going to put up much of a fight in favor of limping... BUT, with 2+ limpers in a hand I'm going to see a cheap flop with odds and position, some times. When I do, I'm looking to: flop a monster in a multi way pot, flop a monster draw against a weak made hand, or look hard for fold equity/dead money.

scalabrine

Banned

Joined: Sep, 2006

Posts: 28221

Posted: Feb. 13, 2011 - 2:55 PM ET #57

Quote Originally Posted by MrGlue:

I used Poker Stove. With that program you can assign your opponents ranges instead of specific hands. If our opponents ONLY limp with the three hands you mentioned then we're going to have a different amount of equity against different opponents who limp with the RANGE of hands I suggested.

I'm not going to put up much of a fight in favor of limping... BUT, with 2+ limpers in a hand I'm going to see a cheap flop with odds and position, some times. When I do, I'm looking to: flop a monster in a multi way pot, flop a monster draw against a weak made hand, or look hard for fold equity/dead money.

Ok. Hand ranges makes sense then.

Given the play at 1/2 tables, I'd be willing to suggest your pot odds to limp would be as low as 2.5 - 1 or even 2 - 1 (but, as you insinuated, you refined your read on the limpers to be holding more quality hands than not).

An issue about Poker Stove...

Are these, specifically 'hand-range' pot odds pre-flop, really useful in live games? Online, it's obvious why it's useful. The calculation is instantaneous.

In a live game, aren't we reverting back to intuition/feel about a players holding rather than the strictly profitable, actual pot odds to make a limp?

How many players, even top pros correctly calculate pot odds in the scenario we are debating? Even if you put 2 players on ranges simultaneously (hard enough to do in itself), a pot odds calculator is necessary to justify your limp with 3/5. And what if your reads are incorrect to begin with?

This is the problem I've always had with implied odds. They are completely subjective and players always justify bad calls by saying, "Well if my inside straight hit, I would have felted him so that's why I called with 11-1 odds on the turn"

Most of the time, good players know you hit the nuts when you shove given their experience at the table (and conversely, your perception of them). Hence, the argument is flawed well before the river card is dealt.

MrGlue

Prospect

Joined: Sep, 2009

Posts: 250

Posted: Feb. 13, 2011 - 3:57 PM ET #58

Scal,

I'd really like to continue this conversation but I think we're getting WAY OT from the OP.

Would you mind if I use your post above to start a new thread on using hand ranges in live games?

If not, no worries, I can just respond in this thread...

All Forums | Poker

2 of the worst beats in one hour I've ever had

Hot Forum Topics