16 Nobel Prize-winning Economists see a Trump inflation bomb!

could happen though and that makes it worse

•   A new Wall Street Journal survey found that a majority of 50 economists polled believe Donald Trump's policies would be more likely to reignite inflation than President Joe Biden's would.

•   Previously, 16 Nobel Prize-winning Economists came out with warning voicing the same concerns!

Here is a nice breakdown of possible economic conditions we see over the next 4 years:

For all those who believe that globalism & 40 yrs of free trade exported US jobs & inflation, the reverse will take more than one Trump term to unwind, at least safely. Hillbilly Effigy policies may make for good campaigning rhetoric, but they are far more complicated to put in place without major blowback.

I agree Trump - JD will use the USD as a weapon against trading partners. I believe he will brow-beat the Fed into forcing yields lower despite UST not compensating for the risk of holding longer-term notes/bonds against the entrenched/growing inflation US will experience under these policies.

But they will do NOTHING to address the core problem that our own politicians have stolen more from Americans than we have given away to China in bad policies.

The result: Americans are less smart & more lazy, not to mention deeply indebted & diseased, to absorb the US reshoring jobs that Covid started and Trump wants to take credit for. Especially without immigration to take up the slack.

Considerations for Earnings Expectations:

 Corporate Profit Margins: Productivity NEEDS to outpace higher costs + wages, while consumer spending outpaces/absorbs these higher prices. Voters won't think about this, nor with Trump, let alone the CAPEX needed that will come at the cost of stock buybacks.

Economic Growth: Trade tariffs drag down growth; so does govt crowding out. Corp/household refinancing & funding costs, already strained, will grow with "self-financing" until credit demand falls forcing labor to be shed. That's the cycle we are in even without a trade war with China.

Anti-Trust Focus: Trump berated the monopoly powers of AMZN, AAPL, GOOGL, MSFT his 1st term, but no break-ups or changes occurred. Will this time be different? If he wants to be the champion of small businesses, then the concentration risk of MAG7 will be his target. In a nutshell: "Net Net" we very likely see higher inflation, slower economic growth, higher unemployment, continued grift, not to mention tax cuts for wealthy driving more inequality & distrust.

A USD devaluation with falling UST will only spur a currency crisis. This is not 2016 Monetary Dominance. This is 2024 Fiscal Dominance. And it will make all the difference.

https://x.com/SamanthaLaDuc/status/1813194201472860625

@fubah2

ever notice how the magas have a huge problem with experts when the results dont go their way ?!

they bitch and whine and cry  and attack

@KellyM_1964

Nassim Taleb on "experts" 

I didn't quite write (or mean) that. I explained that some domains have experts (dentistry, Spanish grammar, plumbing, mathematics)

& some don't (political "science", evolutionary psychology, macroeconomics, Steven Pinker's field, etc.)

"Taleb intelligence" > Covers intelligence 

Pretty much daily, yes.  And usually in that order too, as we can see here...

     Brand new WSJ survey:
Majority of 50 economists say
    inflation  would be higher
    under Trump  than Biden!

CNBC -

A majority of 50 economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal
[right-center leaning media] said former President Donald Trump's
policies would be more likely to reignite inflation
than President Joe Biden's would!

Of the 50 economists who answered questions about Trump and Biden in the survey, 28 of them said the risk of a return to high inflation levels was greater under the plans proposed by the Republican, than under those of the incumbent Democrat.

But only 8 of the economists in the WSJ survey said inflation would be worse under Biden than Trump.

CNBC -

Economists and Wall Street analysts say
Trump's hardline tariff proposals —
a 10% tariff on all imports paired with
a 60% to 100% China-specific rate —
would increase producer costs which
translate to higher consumer prices.

nUMBERS lOOK gOOD

28 definitive one way   contrasts with only 8 the other

28 definitive one way   contrasts with only 8 the other

@KellyM_1964

Yes, so basically by 4 to 1

I'm no economist, but you can bookmark me on this:  

Based on what is expected to change policy wise under President Trump, the conditions will be ripe for an inflationary environment.  Question is, "how bad" will it be?  

No-brainer there.  So if the fascist crime boss is in and puts all that into play and when prices to US consumers do rise, who will MAGAtts on MSM, X, twitter, and Untruth Social point the finger of blame at?

Trump admin?    or the Democrats?

its always all joe bidens fault  

       Trump also wants to crack down on immigration,
which could cut off the stream of immigrant workers
who have buoyed the strong U.S. labor market
without rekindling inflation.

     Still, 51% of economists in the WSJ survey 
estimate that federal deficits will rise more under Trump,
who has proposed making his first-term tax cuts permanent. 

Meanwhile, only 22% of economists think the same for Biden.

@fubah2

 good facts         but why is it logical to presume the magas most likely believe those numbers 51 and 22  r actually reversed ?!

@KellyM_1964

 Many out there in MAGA universe (not referring to in here) live inside an information bubble where they only hear what they want to hear, only read what supports their beliefs, or they only believe what their leaders tribal leaders tell them, regardless the actual truth.

Come on fellas I know you do not like other members coming after you and neither do I but you have to not be so grating and insulting to the other side as well. Try to make conversation and discuss content not Trump and MAGA insults over and over.

Everyone knows your group dislikes Trump and the annoying extremist followers that tag along but at some point you have to try and control this antagonizing towards their party to the extent you guys do it.

@Zeus4par

Agreed.

Fox News and their website would also seem to be large contributors to that bubble.

@KellyM_1964

 Mostly for the reasons zeus4par listed.

@fubah2

subject to constant change no doubt ??

FINALLY

@Zeus4par

 And that truth continues today