18% Inflation - The Real Rate

US already produces more oil than any country.  Since oil is an international commodity, prices are determined by world markets.  Trump tax cuts failed to pay for themselves according to Center for American progress study.  Failing to produce promised investment, economic growth or wage increases for majority of workers.  Instead tax cuts increase federal deficits and income inequality.  Historically, trickle down economics just don't work.

The man, they myth, the legend....

Stanley Druckenmiller gives Biden’s economic policies an ‘F,’ blames the Fed for reigniting inflation

• Billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller on Tuesday blasted fiscal and monetary authorities, including Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Fed Chair Jerome Powell, for causing high inflation.
• “Bidenomics, If I was a professor, I’d give him an ‘F,’” Druckenmiller said.
• Druckenmiller also called himself a “man without a candidate” as he feels a Donald Trump presidency would fuel inflation.
• “To some extent, I feel like they fumbled on the five yard line,” he said of the Fed.
• Reckless government spending enabled by the Federal Reserve is hurting average Americans and endangering President Joe Biden’s chances at getting reelected, billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller said Tuesday.
• During an appearance on CNBC’s “Squawk Box,” the head of Duquesne Family Office who made his name betting against the British pound in the early 1990s blasted fiscal and monetary authorities, including Treasury Secretary Janet Yellenand Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
• In addition, he called “Bidenomics” a failure and said consumers are paying the price in terms of higher inflation.
• “There does seem to be a lot more recognition ... of the fiscal situation facing us. Everybody seems to get it but Yellen, who just keeps spending and spending,” Druckenmiller said. “I think it’s dumb politically because it’s causing inflation and it doesn’t take a genius to figure out that the average American is getting hurt by the inflation.”
• Druckenmiller’s comments come with the Fed still trying to bring inflation down, as policymakers have dashed investors’ hopesfor aggressive interest rate cuts this year.
• Getting markets enthused about rate reductions was a mistake because it set financial conditions “on fire,” he said.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/07/stanley-druckenmiller-gives-bidens-economic-policies-an-f-blames-the-fed-for-reigniting-inflation.html?__source=sharebar%7Ctwitter&par=sharebar

@kcblitzkrieg

He is absolutely correct.  I have been saying this for quite some time.  Yellen has never been impressive.  The FED and Powell utterly made this situation worse.

There is no doubt they knew what was coming and still did not manage it well; because we all saw it coming far in advance.

I think an 'F' is harsh -- but a 'C' at best.  Unless, it continues on this path and into a recession -- then an 'F' for sure.

@thirdperson

 This is true!  I like the way wallstreetcappers has repeatedly summarized the facts about it all perfectly.

Typically as a result of WORLD EVENTS, pump prices rise everywhere - including here - and that fact also forces up the prices of virtually everything that is moved by shipping, rail, air, and roads. 

Inflation.

The Fed...."the great enabler" 

-Druck 

@kcblitzkrieg

 Stanley is talking his book so to speak, not literally but his financial positioning influences what he either complains about or agrees with. Ive seen him on the financial news channels for a very very very long time and he is usually speaking relative to his investment thesis and thus he is biased. All of what he says has some truth but it is not unique to just one person (Biden) or one series in time (now) so Stanley likes to be the center of attention and always has been but he is like Bill Gross a big talker who wants to make the grandiose call out when it serves his narrative.

He talks about fiscal restraint and debt levels all the stuff that gold bugs and fixed income guys center on but this is not unique to today or even the last 5 10 20 years, so to finger point as he did when its the same comedy routine in government just comes off as partisan. 

Next guest on CNBC is Peter Schiff

On yahoo finance report card, Biden receives B overall grade for performance of US economy compared with 7 prior presidents in 6 economic indicators. Using same methodology as European union, US inflation is already below 2% according to economist Zandi of Moody analytics. 

@thirdperson

 Nobody trusts Yahoo as they limit speech. 

Nobody trusts Moodys either as they are bought and paid for and they have a long history of not giving accurate ratings. 

US inflation is NOT anywhere close to being below 2% when you look at YoY. 

People are playing with numbers like it’s G.I . Joe action figures , and unfortunately , when given the liberty to choose the outcomes of the skirmishes , some will choose for Cobra Commander to come out on top and to defeat Flint .

everybody plays with numbers nowadays . It’s the new “ pud “ 

Bartholomew why is the door to your room locked ?

@wallstreetcappers

 Never seen you comment on anything other than the contrary opinion when discussing any successful financial figure talking facts of life... it comes off as if you harbor a certain level of personal feelings / resentment to many of these successful financial power players, whether true or not I do not care nor does it really matter.  

You can't argue with Druck's success.  He is one of the greatest investors of our time.  Before and after Duquesne... 

Is he on CNBC because he is promoting something ??  Well of course, that is why the guest come on any TV show.  It is to promote....  

To compare Druck to Peter Schiff is disingenuous and you know it.  

As with most videos or links I post I'm sure you don't even watch them, just roll out the generalizations of whatever preconceived notions you have on any given topic.  In this case, you are completely ignoring what he said / placed blame on Yellen and JPOW.  Is "Biden" the headline ??  Of course, that is what YOUR mainstream media decided to lead with.... don't be blind and don't try to portray Druck has playing the partisan fiddle.  You must've skipped the part where he said Trump would cause inflation to rise too huh.... 

Life is a constant learning process, more people need to look at it with an open mind and be open to other avenues of learning.... I don't care how old one is or how much one thinks they know about a topic, there is always more to learn....don't stunt your growth..  

@kcblitzkrieg

Its funny I actually thought you would go that way with regards to my comment...that I am a naysayer of a public speaker when it comes to financial markets. Then I thought of a list of people who do not fall under the definition and there are a few.

First thing, Stanley gets credit for something that MANY get credit for and that is the sub prime stuff, there are several who have rode that horse to fame for the last 15 years and he is one of them. Another is Kyle Bass and there are others. I lived through this whole thing and Ive followed Stanley enough to know what I am talking about.

He has investments and a business which he has to forward and protect, he is biased period and that is the truth. Nothing wrong with the guy being trotted out to make a partisan point, that network has been pulling that crap for 30 years plus. Liz Sonders is another one that fits that decript, she was the internet.com pin up model and since then that has faded but they still pull her out to pump something now and then.

Here are a few guys who I did respect at a time with some background...not that you care but just for fun-

1) Jim Cramer- I threw the shocker on the top just to make a point. Ive followed Cramerica before he was known in the media. I used to listen to him on the radio on my way into work while driving from the suburbs of Philly to downtown where I was a broker. That was before he was on tv, even before his pay service pumping.. He used to just have a radio show where he would talk the markets and give reccos. Well I liked him back then he was not biased just had his own little PE firm and seemed neutral but was entertaining. That is for sure gone now but back then in the .com era I liked him

2) Charles Biderman- he would be on CNBC talking about his prop software targeting dividend companies that paid dividends from cash flow, really sharp guy with no political agenda and no aspirations for fame and glory via the media

3) Rick Santelli- When he FIRST came on the scene he was just a CBOE guy that would talk technical details about the bond markets and commodities, he was straight to the point and gave insight that he had which was not public info at the time. Now the guy is a wack job because of the fame and media attention he got

4) Larry Kudlow- Another shocker, he has been on CNBC for over 25 years and when he first came on he was not a political tool he would discuss fundamental economic data and insight. The guy is a total train wreck now, the attention and media got to him, his political biases and partisan mind wrecked what he once was, now I cant stand to hear the conservative garbage he spews but back at the origin he was a decent listen

I think what the point I am making is that most guys you see trotted out to media outlets are selling their book their business their financial position. Kyle Bass is one of the worst, he got subprime right and has been wrong non-stop on China and they trot him out when the time is right. I do not trust people who have biases and agendas and are being used to forward a political position. Stanley is not someone I respect or admire because he is biased and has a strong agenda. I'd tell that to him if I were next to him on the golf course too...lol

@wallstreetcappers

 respect for taking that one head on 

 nice list of folks there, I hear you.....difference is those are all media talking heads.  They weren't operating a $30B hedge fund nor are they running $6B in family assets.  

 Stanley is "biased" as you say because he has convictions in his investment strategies and his theses.  Nothing wrong with that, he is putting his "money where his mouth is".  He'll be biased against anything that he sees as going against him, whether that be Republican, Democrat or Independent. 

Can't argue with the billions made in the private or public sectors he has operated in.  I don't know enough about him as a person to comment on "respecting" him or whatever BS you want to say with regards to a Billionaire investor who has shown massive success in multiple decades since the early 1990s.   I mean, he did work under Soros so that is a knock but that was a long long time ago when they "broke the bank of England", long before the subprime stuff.  

How about this one, and I do care and it is part of the fun....now list a few people that you do pay attention to / follow that you think are "worth it".  I feel this list may be a short one.... 

@thirdperson

  US arguably has the strongest economy in the world right now, despite WORLD WIDE  INFLATION affecting all countries.

Mark Zandi is one of the more respected in his field among intelligent people and YAHOO is clearly one of the most popular news sites in the world, and for good reason.

@kcblitzkrieg

 Good Q and the answer is like none and I think you know why. I can listen to lots of people but when those people are financially motivated and have cash on the line I tend to minimize their objective point of view because their singular purpose is to make money in whatever area or business they are involved in. Stanley has his funds as you mentioned and he is paid to run those funds, that means his motivations are to make a return and generate his pay for his services. HF managers are self serving and many are good at what they do but I do not listen to someone with a financial agenda as a source of strong information especially when Stanley has not been as vocal when other political parties are running deficits and profiting off ZIRP. Stanley also likely dips into the FED swimming pool, I do not have data on that as I have not looked but the FED allows firms like his to qualify for cheap cash and that I do not like. I am sure Stanley is miffed at higher borrow rates because it means his capital is more expensive to service if he is leveraged and most HFs are leveraged to maximize profits.

What I respect is unbiased information, just plain generic data that has zero political barb and no agenda. My list above is when those people just discussed economic data and there are a few others who I did not include. I want data and stats and information that is only about finance not about blaming a political party for deficits or giving Biden an F for inflation...it strikes me as strongly partisan because Stanley isnt stupid he knows the wheels of economic theory take a long time to turn and there are many aspects to why inflation comes why deflation comes what generates prices what generates debt and deficits so for him to make the poke as he did reduces his financial value IMO, I am not going to respect a billionaire who thinks they are so great that they can speak their mind in politics. Its like Steve Wynn and how he does the same. If Stanley is so bothered with deficits and debt then run for office and make a difference, dont just go on some financial news channel and run your mouth as some expert when you are not doing much to make a difference in the area that you are complaining.

I respect hard working, considerate, respectful people who do not have an agenda and are not trying to shove politics in others faces, that care more about those who have less than if his hedge fund makes more profit this quarter. Stanley is a dime a dozen and as you mentioned Soros is not an example of high moral value and social consideration at all. Good for those guys I dont care any more about them than I do you or anyone else.

hot damn there are some good receipts in this thread 

BREAKING:

April PPI inflation surges to 6%, well above expectations of 4.9% and highest since JAN 23  

Core PPI 5.2% on 4.3% expected 

Both CPI and PPI are now officially at 3+ year highs

Rate cuts?  LMAO..... get ready for some HIKES baby!  

@kcblitzkrieg

 Not with the partisan joke in the chair for 12 years. I keep being shocked at how bad the FED chair is from Greenspam to Jerome but this new guy is the absolute worst yet. I was no fan of any of the previous chairs but at least Jerome tried to normalize rates and maybe that is why Jerome is sticking around as to not let Kevin wreck it all when Trump calls him on his cell demanding rate cuts.

@wallstreetcappers

 They will change their "mandate" to 4%.....watch.  

You wonder why the SPX has been ramping and AI has been? Kev is going to change the framework to massage his cuts. I only hope is that Jerome will stop him before this small stagflation turns into a tsunami.

Global rates are really cruising I do not see how Kevvie can cut into this scenario, it will destroy economies like India and Japan.