I have no idea how accurate 538's U.S. House estimates are, but their current prediction is as close as possible:
REP 218 seats
DEM 217 seats
There is a very realistic chance that one party could capture the Presidency and be somewhat hampered by the other party controlling the purse strings. That narrow margin indicates that the next Speaker (if it's not Mike Johnson) could have as much trouble controlling his caucus as MJ does.
We political junkies could still be watching TV at 3:00 A.M on November 6th.
I have no idea how accurate 538's U.S. House estimates are, but their current prediction is as close as possible:
REP 218 seats
DEM 217 seats
There is a very realistic chance that one party could capture the Presidency and be somewhat hampered by the other party controlling the purse strings. That narrow margin indicates that the next Speaker (if it's not Mike Johnson) could have as much trouble controlling his caucus as MJ does.
We political junkies could still be watching TV at 3:00 A.M on November 6th.
Polymarket provides more evidence that Trump fans are betting with their hearts and not their heads. At 538 the current edge for Trump in PA just climbed from 0.4% to 0.5%, well within the margin of error. That translates to a 54% chance of carrying PA. Polymarket bettors give Trump a 59% chance of carrying PA, another case of a negative expected value.
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Polymarket provides more evidence that Trump fans are betting with their hearts and not their heads. At 538 the current edge for Trump in PA just climbed from 0.4% to 0.5%, well within the margin of error. That translates to a 54% chance of carrying PA. Polymarket bettors give Trump a 59% chance of carrying PA, another case of a negative expected value.
[The] incumbent political party is favored when the Dow is up year-to-date, according to a prediction model with a 99% confidence rating
U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris' chance of winning the U.S. presidential election is lower than it was two weeks ago, according to a model that uses the stock market's year-to-date performance to predict the incumbent political party's chances of victory.
Nevertheless, that model still predicts that Harris, the Democratic presidential candidate, is likely to win the U.S. election on Nov. 5 - expecting a 70% probability of victory. The reason Harris's odds are lower than the 72% where it stood on Oct. 17, when I last wrote about this model, is that the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA has declined slightly.
[The] incumbent political party is favored when the Dow is up year-to-date, according to a prediction model with a 99% confidence rating
U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris' chance of winning the U.S. presidential election is lower than it was two weeks ago, according to a model that uses the stock market's year-to-date performance to predict the incumbent political party's chances of victory.
Nevertheless, that model still predicts that Harris, the Democratic presidential candidate, is likely to win the U.S. election on Nov. 5 - expecting a 70% probability of victory. The reason Harris's odds are lower than the 72% where it stood on Oct. 17, when I last wrote about this model, is that the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA has declined slightly.
“We’re less than a week from Election Day, and the mood inside the Trump campaign has undergone yet another transformation. Last week, I reported on the preemptive but undeniably palpable sense of euphoria washing over Mar-a-Lago as data rolled in depicting early-voting surges in Nevada, Georgia, and North Carolina.”
“But now, as the early results from Pennsylvania reveal an influx of first-time female voters who will likely break for Harris, a newfound anxiety is taking hold. While Trump continues to claim he has a massive lead, setting the stage to contest any unfavorable result, some in the Mar-a-Lago-sphere are starting to believe that his surge last week was two weeks premature.”
“We’re less than a week from Election Day, and the mood inside the Trump campaign has undergone yet another transformation. Last week, I reported on the preemptive but undeniably palpable sense of euphoria washing over Mar-a-Lago as data rolled in depicting early-voting surges in Nevada, Georgia, and North Carolina.”
“But now, as the early results from Pennsylvania reveal an influx of first-time female voters who will likely break for Harris, a newfound anxiety is taking hold. While Trump continues to claim he has a massive lead, setting the stage to contest any unfavorable result, some in the Mar-a-Lago-sphere are starting to believe that his surge last week was two weeks premature.”
That website just changed AZ from Tied to Harris, but the lead is just 0.1%. You bettors should take this with a grain of salt. While I am not super confident about how accurate 538's analysis this year, they do have AZ as the strongest swing state for Trump at +2.2%. Electoral Vote has Trump ahead in PA by just 0.1%.
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Current count at Electoral Vote:
Harris 262, Trump 270, Ties 6 (NV)
https://www.electoral-vote.com/
*******
That website just changed AZ from Tied to Harris, but the lead is just 0.1%. You bettors should take this with a grain of salt. While I am not super confident about how accurate 538's analysis this year, they do have AZ as the strongest swing state for Trump at +2.2%. Electoral Vote has Trump ahead in PA by just 0.1%.
"An NBC News Decision Desk analysis of state voter data shows that as of Oct. 30, there are signs of an influx of new female Democratic voters in Pennsylvania and new male Republican voters in Arizona, two of the most important swing states."
Flipping AZ to Trump won't be enough to get him to 270. At Heritage Trump is -345 to carry AZ; good luck to chalkbites willing to lay that number.
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Per Yahoo News:
"An NBC News Decision Desk analysis of state voter data shows that as of Oct. 30, there are signs of an influx of new female Democratic voters in Pennsylvania and new male Republican voters in Arizona, two of the most important swing states."
Michael Moore, who correctly predicted a Donald Trump victory in the 2016 presidential election, is optimistic on Kamala Harris' chances to win on next Tuesday.
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@DogbiteWilliams
Michael Moore, who correctly predicted a Donald Trump victory in the 2016 presidential election, is optimistic on Kamala Harris' chances to win on next Tuesday.
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