2024 US Election Betting Hub

@Europa

 Good news.  I had heard he picked Harris to win a few weeks ago; glad to see he is sticking with Harris this close to the actual election.

Current count at Electoral Vote:

Harris 262, Trump 251, Ties 25 (NV and PA)

PA has moved from Trump to Tied.  Things are nip and tuck.

Former Republican Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger has endorsed Kamala Harris:

https://x.com/Schwarzenegger/status/1851627802027758005

Interesting change at 538 - Trump is down to 50%, but Harris remains at 49%.  Chances in thousandths:

Trump  504

Harris  494

No winner  2

"No winner" would be certain victory for Trump.  If each candidate garners exactly 269 electoral votes, the new 2025 House of Representatives would select the winner with each state delegation having one vote.  As of Septemeber 2023, Republicans led 26-22.  Two states were tied (MN and NC).  Grabbing both states would still leave Harris short.

I think a more realistic analysis makes Trump a 51-49 favorite.

The current EV count at 270towin.com is Harris 273, Trump 265.  They assign the seven swing states:

Harris  WI, MI, NC and NV

Trump  PA, GA and AZ

Most of the articles I have read give Trump an edge in NV, but it is tiny - 538 has NV R +0.1%.

Once again Polymarket has trouble with rounding. Their current overall odds:

Trump  54.6%

Harris  45.6%

Their odds of Trump carrying PA fell from 59% two days ago to 52% today.

https://polymarket.com/elections

Earth-shattering news from Iowa:

*******

Harris Leads in Iowa
November 2, 2024 at 7:03 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 2311 Comments

A new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll “shows Vice President Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump 47% to 44% among likely voters just days before a high-stakes election that appears deadlocked in key battleground states.”

“A victory for Harris would be a shocking development after Iowa has swung aggressively to the right in recent elections, delivering Trump solid victories in 2016 and 2020.”

“The poll shows that women — particularly those who are older or are politically independent — are driving the late shift toward Harris.”

Said pollster Ann Selzer: “It’s hard for anybody to say they saw this coming. She has clearly leaped into a leading position.”

*******

With over 2300 comments this is super popular.  Many of the posts emphasize how accurate Selzer has been repeatedly.  I believe she only polls Iowans.

In 2020 Trump beat Biden in Iowa by 8.2%, so this represents a massive 11-point shift to the left.  While some might claim this to be an outlier, Ann Selzer is one of the sharpest pollsters in the country.  From Wikipedia:

"J. Ann Selzer is an American political pollster who is the president of the Des Moines, Iowa-based polling firm Selzer & Company, which she founded in 1996.[1][2] Her polls of Iowa voters have a reputation for being highly accurate, based on their performance in major elections from 2008 through 2020.[3][4] She has been described as "the best pollster in politics" by Clare Malone of FiveThirtyEight, which also gives Selzer & Company a rare A+ grade for accuracy."

While WI, MI and PA probably won't shift 11 points to the left, it is easy to imagine Harris taking all of them by 2+ points despite the closeness of the polls.

It seems a shocker but President Obama won Iowa twice in 2008 and 2012, Kamala Harris might follow suit this month. 

@Europa

Shocker the other way - Trump just jumped to 53% at 538.  PA went from R +0.1% to R +0.3%.  Only Wi and MI remain with Harris, Trump has leads in the other five.

Trump is down to 52.2% at EBO.

The latest poll from Emerson College has Trump up by 9% in Iowa.

If Harris does win Iowa, I think she should also sweep Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.   

I think I might have discovered why 538 bumped up Trump from 51% to 53%.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

If you check the latest polls listed at 538, you'll notice that AtlasIntel (AI) has Trump carrying all seven swing states.  538 rates AI very highly - #22 of the 282 pollsters they monitor.  However, that rating may have to be adjusted much lower after election results are analyzed.  I do NOT believe Trump will carry all seven swing states.

At r/fivethirtyeight, poster SinghInScandics rips apart AI's "insane crosstabs and methodology."  Trump will NOT grab 46% of the black vote in PA - what a pile of shxt.

https://www.reddit.com/r/fivethirtyeight/comments/1frymr4/why_arent_we_talking_about_insane_atlasintel/

I think SinghInScandics should double check his analysis.  I downloaded AtlasIntel's crosstabs and AI claimed that Trump would get just 26.2% of the black vote in PA.  I still think that's high.

Split Tickets' odds:

Presidency   53% Harris

Senate   75% GOP

House   52% DEM

https://split-ticket.org/

538 has Trump at 93% to take Iowa which certainly make Selzer's poll seem like an outlier.

Let's see what happens.

Absolutely.

More on Selzer polls in Iowa:

Her Sept. 8-11 poll had Trump +4%.  Her Oct. 28-31 poll had Harris +3%.

538's analysis of 282 polls made it seem as if Trump's popularity increased (WTF) after Trump's anti-Haitian hatemongering and the horrifying increase in anti-Haitian hate crimes in Springfield OH as well as death threats against Republican governor Mike DeWine and Republican Springfield Mayor Rob Rue.  The German-American Bund-style rally and overt racism and misogyny in MSG really hurt Trump with Independents.

I believe Selzer's Iowa-specific polls will do a better job of capturing the entire country's Blue shift than the bulk of pollsters 538 monitors.  

Once again Polymarket has trouble with rounding. Their current overall odds:

Trump 54.1%

Harris 46.1%

Their odds of Trump carrying PA have risen from 52% to 54%.  Their odds of Trump carrying NC are currently at 63%.  I have bet Harris to carry NC, so I think those bettors are way off (of course I could be way off).

On 2024-11-01 EBO had the odds of a Republican House at 52.5%.  Now they have have the odds of a Democratic House at 54.3%.

It seems polls are turning into weapons more than information. I think both sides use polls to motivate their voter base and to dissuade the other side. Polls are useless when they are created to manipulate versus educate.

Polymarket's odds:

Presidency 55% GOP

Senate 80% GOP

House 53% DEM

Current count at Electoral Vote:

Harris 276, Trump 251, Ties 11 (AZ)

NV and PA have moved from Tied to Harris. AZ has moved from Harris to Tied.  Things are still nip and tuck.

Yep.  Republicans have been flooding the news cycle with conservative bias polls 

Once again Polymarket has trouble with rounding. Their current overall odds:

Trump 57.5%

Harris 42.4%

Money is now moving to Trump.

Current count at Electoral Vote:

Harris 276, Trump 246, Ties 16 (NC)

AZ moved from Tied to Trump.  NC moved from Trump to Tied.