Posted:
#176
https://politicalwire.com/2016/06/29/clinton-heavily-favored-to-win/
It is still a long way to the election, but HRC is currently a heavy favorite.
Betting on Politics
Posted:
#182
Saw a fantastic prop bet for Hillary's speech, and then saw someone on this forum posted about it...but I'm taking it.
Hillary to use the phrase "Michelle Obama" +300
Michelle gave a fantastic speech, maybe the best of the night. African American women represent 6% of the national vote, but they have one of the highest turnout of any demographic. With the caliber of Michelle's speech, and Hillary being the ultimate opportunist trying to seem cool and relevant (as corny as she may be...hot sauce in purse, pokemongo reference, etc) I can't believe this is plus money. I would've put the odds at -125 to mention Michelle Obama's name.
Posted:
#183
I couldn't decide whether or not to bet Hillary after the Republican convention because the convention bounce can skew the numbers, but I didn't, and I regret it. This first night was great for Hillary momentum. She had big name Democrats give great speeches, the first lady killed it, Corey Booker killed it, and Bernie gave the perfect speech for Hillary. He excited his crowd, but made a smooth transition to pave the way for his crowd to vote Hillary. I watched interviews with Bernie supporters after the speech, and they all seemed like they were just coming to terms with the fact they lost. The biggest thing Hillary has on her side with the Bernie supporters is time. After a few weeks, those people will calm down and realize they were a part of something special, but they can still voice their opinion, and most will eventually vote for Hillary (or against Trump, whichever you prefer). Tons of anti-Trump people from the Republican party swore they wouldn't support Trump, and then all came around. I expect the same on the Dems side.
But make no mistake about it...this election (and all presidential elections in recent memory and moving forward) comes down to some swing states. Virginia, Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan. Republicans HAVE to win at least three of these, and realistically four of these. And history shows they have to win Ohio...and Kasich has made it clear that is going to be tough for Trump.
Here is one thing that the media (shockingly) has not reported on:
Hillary is very organized, well-funded, and well aware of what demographics she needs to win in what states, and she is going after it already. Since the beginning, Trump has been a master of the social media, and the right-leaning media, but has had a very poor ground game, and a disorganized campaign. In the primaries he was running against many opponents. Now, he's running against one person, and she knows her sh*t and is surrounded by people that know how to run campaigns. She is already pumping money into TV ads, ground game, grass roots game, and anything and everything she can into these key demographics in these key states. National polls don't cover this, but as bettors we need to know these things. Trump has had many missteps in organization on his campaign, and that weakness can't be overlooked when going up against the Clinton Machine in a National Election.
My Standard Warning to People Betting Politics:
If you are a bettor, and you are betting your money that you have earned by working hard....be very careful, and don't bet your emotions. Follow the appropriate information, numbers, and lines that the books post. There is going to be LOTS of money to be made betting on states, so be patient...the profits are coming soon.
IGNORE the national polls. They mean close to nothing. The swing states are what matters as to who will win the election. When you hear headlines like "Clinton 2 points ahead", or "Trump pulls even with Hillary"...those are very vague indicators, and the most accurate polls are months away.
I want everyone in this betting forum to make money...regardless of who you vote for.
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