I'm going to make two very small plays right now. I have Trump at a great number to win the Republican nom, so I'm good there. I have Hillary to win the Democratic nom, and to win the general at much better prices than are being offered right now so I'm happy about that, and really excited about betting the states in the general.
But I'm going to put a little splash on the following to hedge my Hillary bets.
Sanders to win the Democratic nom +1600
Sanders to win the General +2200
There are two outside scenarios where I see Bernie winning these.
1. The Dems take a look at some of the swing states, and decide that Bernie does better there than Hillary. If Bernie pulls off the win in California, I think this scenario starts to be a real possibility.
For everything that Trump gets banged on for, it's working in his favor on the other side. Regardless of what you think of him, he speaks his mind, says outlandish things (but with passion and conviction), and the biggest thing.....he isn't a career politician. And I feel like this is the big picture theme in this election. A lot of people are sick enough of politics as usual that they are voting for whoever sounds different. I feel like we saw that with Obama when he came out of nowhere to defeat Hillary......and I feel like the same thing may happen here. Bernie has ideas that some people see as crazy, but he at least isn't scripted, and doesn't come across like a political robot. In that sense I think he matches up against Trump very good.
If the Democrats feel like Hillary is a liability in the key swing states, I could see a scenario where delegates switch votes and go for Sanders.
Here's a little fun fact as well for the super delegates...Sanders has pointed this out, but I don't think people realize this.
Hillary has a huge lead in superdelegates, but MOST OF THESE DELEGATES PLEDGED THEIR SUPPORT BEFORE THE CAUCUSES AND PRIMARIES BEGAN.
A lot has changed since then. Email stuff...Bernie's unpredicted success...the rise of Trump. If they feel Bernie is better suited to win the general...they could jump to the Bernie Ship.
Scenario 2
2. Hillary gets indicted or has to fight getting indicted for the email thing. She has to worry about Republicans putting pressure on charges being filed, but also Bernie supporters will be hoping and pushing for charges to be filed. If the feds decide to even file charges.....forget it...her run is over.
I don't know if either of these scenarios will take place, but I think there is a good enough possibility on one of these to make a little hedge on Sanders victory.
I would like to reiterate...this thread (I've tried) is for betting on politics...I respect all opinions, but please try and keep your posts in this threads to things applicable to the betting markets. Thank you all.
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