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Posted: #151

Last week The Guardian daily newspaper sought out Sanders fans who are contemplating switching their allegiance to Trump if Hillary Clinton secures the Democratic nomination.

Almost 700 people replied to the call-out, and some 500 of them said they were thinking the unthinkable: a Sanders-Trump switch...

An NBC News/Wall Street Journal survey conducted by Hart Research Associates this month, 7% of Sanders voters said they could see themselves supporting Trump.

 
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Posted: #152
Quote Originally Posted by SarasotaSlim:

Last week The Guardian daily newspaper sought out Sanders fans who are contemplating switching their allegiance to Trump if Hillary Clinton secures the Democratic nomination.

Almost 700 people replied to the call-out, and some 500 of them said they were thinking the unthinkable: a Sanders-Trump switch...

An NBC News/Wall Street Journal survey conducted by Hart Research Associates this month, 7% of Sanders voters said they could see themselves supporting Trump.



Well, what I think people forget is that voters do this process based on perception.  For me, I actually care about a variety of issues and judge each person in terms of the person I feel he or she is.  Many others care more about disposition and character. 

Hillary comes off as smug and arrogant at times to people.  That rubs them the wrong way and some of them just can't fathom supporting a person like her.  I think she's a phony but I'm not going to vote for Trump, which I've stated from the beginning.  I'm sure others will, though.
 
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Posted: #153
Well we can't continue the status quo--  Hillary is offering that.

We are not ready for Socialism ( most young people think socialism is being nice,)  ..-so Bernie won't make it..

You have to draw in independents and cross-overs -- Cruz strikes out here.. (though I'm still pulling for him)

Kasich well just Kasich--- nice guys finish last.

For better or worse Donald Trump is needed to lead this country at this point in American history..even if for only four years..so his VP will be very,very important if he wins the presidency.


 
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Posted: #154

Quote Originally Posted by sicknesscity:



Trump is probably unlikely to win a general election but I do want to point out that (I) voters are more likely to go with Trump than Hillary.  I'm pretty confident about that.  What's funny is the Democrats listen to Bernie about most of the issues and debate them but his most important point is ignored, which of course is that independents support Bernie much more than Hillary and that's why he does better against Trump in a general election. 

Democrats are also ignoring that a lot of Hillary's wins are in states that are probably going to vote Republican in the general election.  I think if the Republicans had a better candidate, they'd give her a run for her money. 

On the other hand, Trump leads in unfavorable rating among registered Republicans and voters. Obviously, it's a moot point unless it becomes a contested convention, Republican already has a better candidate in Kasich. He draws most independents and Democrat crossovers and he's the only one that has the best numbers against Clinton head-to-head.

 
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Posted: #155
https://politicalwire.com/2016/04/22/two-models-predict-trump-will-reach-1237/

I am not a Political Wire member so I cannot access the entire article, but this is certainly good news for Trump supporters.
 
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Posted: #156
Cashed some big tickets with the new of Cruz dropping out.  Now it's onto the general.  In years past, I've had the most success betting individual states.  I think this year should be no different.  

Currently sitting on 2 tickets on Hillary to win the general at -120, and -135.  Right now she's at -250 so I feel good about getting in front of the number.

Probably not going to play any more on the general unless something crazy happens.  Gonna wait until I see something juicy on the states.  
 
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Posted: #157
Quote Originally Posted by alangrrbs:

Cashed some big tickets with the new of Cruz dropping out.  Now it's onto the general.  In years past, I've had the most success betting individual states.  I think this year should be no different.  

Currently sitting on 2 tickets on Hillary to win the general at -120, and -135.  Right now she's at -250 so I feel good about getting in front of the number.

Probably not going to play any more on the general unless something crazy happens.  Gonna wait until I see something juicy on the states.  

HRC's chance of being elected as US president has edged up to 81% in CNN Pivit since few days ago. Does it reflect from the CNN report that FBI has not found any willful wrongdoings so far from her private email server? I don't know, but FBI is wrapping up this case by interviewing her within the coming weeks, according to CBS News. 
 
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Posted: #158
https://politicalwire.com/2016/05/11/trump-catches-clinton-in-new-national-poll/

The latest Reuters/Ipsos poll shows that HRC's lead has narrowed to 1%, down 12% in one week.
 
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Posted: #159
One of the best ways to make money in betting on politics is bet on someone when the momentum seems to be swinging the other way.  After Iowa, it was a great time to bet on Trump because the numbers were telling us he was strong in other states, but the national story was that he lost.  

In the last presidential election if you thought Obama was going to win, the best time to bet on him was after a debate where the national story was that he didn't do so well.

In elections there are obviously lots of ups and downs, but this election could be an all timer in terms of changes in momentum.

And in an election, momentum is nothing more than what the national media says.

One thing that worries me about betting on this election cycle (for myself and for my fellow other bettors) is that every news outlet, school, business, website, etc has their own polling.  I can't believe how many polls there are, and it's incredible how you can take two different polls, and they can tell you the complete opposite.  CNN said this poll...but USA Today said this...Fox News said this...but then Quinnipac said this........it's unbelievable.  So I'm going to tread lightly right now.

One thing I've been keeping my eye on is this narrative that Trump has pulled even with Hillary.  I'm not surprised by this, and nobody else should be either.  With Trump the clear cut Republican nominee, the party has to support him.  So when Cruz dropped out and Sanders didn't, this was completely expected.  Hillary is still going against someone in her party so her numbers will be slightly lower than they will when she officially gets the nomination.  The republicans fell in line behind Trump...the Democrats will do the same.

The number to keep looking at is that Hillary is still around the -200 mark in betting markets.  You can look at polling all you want...but when the betting markets don't adjust to the polls..I'm not going to react.  

As much as people are talking about the national numbers, I don't think now is a good time to buy into Trump or Hillary right now.
 
Captain
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Posted: #160
https://www.economy.com/dismal/topics/election-model

The Moody's Analytics election model favors HRC.  It has been correct eight consecutive times.
 
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Posted: #161
Zogby's latest poll puts HRC up by 6% in Ohio.

https://zogbyanalytics.com/news/747-ohio-likely-voters-choose-clinton-and-sanders-over-trump
 
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Posted: #162
Trump trails among rust belt voters:

https://politicalwire.com/2016/05/26/trump-trails-among-rust-belt-voters/

Maybe there are not as many working-class whites lining up for Trump as his fans and bettors hope.
 
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Posted: #163
HRC losing ground with Sanders supporters:

https://politicalwire.com/2016/05/25/clinton-losing-ground-with-sanders-supporters/

Obviously there are plenty of Sanders supporters who think like me.  It is hard to believe that the strongly-liberal people will cross over and vote for Trump.  I wonder how many Sanders supporters who are registered Democrats self-identify as conservative?
 
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Posted: #164
https://www.270towin.com/news/2016/05/29/consensus-pundit-electoral-map-has-clinton-ahead-trump_306.html#.V0yuoGt5mSP

This late May consensus electotal map has HRC ahead 253-191.
 
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Posted: #165
I'm going to make two very small plays right now.  I have Trump at a great number to win the Republican nom, so I'm good there.  I have Hillary to win the Democratic nom, and to win the general at much better prices than are being offered right now so I'm happy about that, and really excited about betting the states in the general.

But I'm going to put a little splash on the following to hedge my Hillary bets.

Sanders to win the Democratic nom +1600
Sanders to win the General +2200

There are two outside scenarios where I see Bernie winning these.

1.  The Dems take a look at some of the swing states, and decide that Bernie does better there than Hillary.  If Bernie pulls off the win in California, I think this scenario starts to be a real possibility.

For everything that Trump gets banged on for, it's working in his favor on the other side.  Regardless of what you think of him, he speaks his mind, says outlandish things (but with passion and conviction), and the biggest thing.....he isn't a career politician.  And I feel like this is the big picture theme in this election.  A lot of people are sick enough of politics as usual that they are voting for whoever sounds different.  I feel like we saw that with Obama when he came out of nowhere to defeat Hillary......and I feel like the same thing may happen here.  Bernie has ideas that some people see as crazy, but he at least isn't scripted, and doesn't come across like a political robot.  In that sense I think he matches up against Trump very good.

If the Democrats feel like Hillary is a liability in the key swing states, I could see a scenario where delegates switch votes and go for Sanders.

Here's a little fun fact as well for the super delegates...Sanders has pointed this out, but I don't think people realize this.

Hillary has a huge lead in superdelegates, but MOST OF THESE DELEGATES PLEDGED THEIR SUPPORT BEFORE THE CAUCUSES AND PRIMARIES BEGAN.

A lot has changed since then.  Email stuff...Bernie's unpredicted success...the rise of Trump.  If they feel Bernie is better suited to win the general...they could jump to the Bernie Ship.

Scenario 2

2.  Hillary gets indicted or has to fight getting indicted for the email thing.  She has to worry about Republicans putting pressure on charges being filed, but also Bernie supporters will be hoping and pushing for charges to be filed.  If the feds decide to even file charges.....forget it...her run is over.

I don't know if either of these scenarios will take place, but I think there is a good enough possibility on one of these to make a little hedge on Sanders victory.

I would like to reiterate...this thread (I've tried) is for betting on politics...I respect all opinions, but please try and keep your posts in this threads to things applicable to the betting markets.  Thank you all.
 
Captain
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Posted: #166

Why "missing" white voters won't help Trump:

https://politicalwire.com/2016/06/02/why-missing-white-voters-wont-help-trump/

 
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Posted: #167

Trump keeps winning the news cycle:

https://politicalwire.com/2016/06/02/trump-keeps-winning-the-news-cycles/

That does not exactly compliment the electorate's intellectual heft.  Responding enthusiastically to xenophobia, Islamophobia and insults is hardly praiseworthy behavior. 

 
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Posted: #168

Trump leads by double digits on the economy:

https://politicalwire.com/2016/06/02/trump-leads-by-double-digits-on-the-economy/

There is some debate, but most economists believe that the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act was a disaster and exacerbated the Great Depression.

The American electorate is critically ill-informed.  Ignorance may be bliss, but it is also dangerous as Hell.

 
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Posted: #169

https://www.electionbettingodds.com/week.html

It has been a horrible week for Trump.  As I type this, his chance of winning the Presidency is only 23.8%, down 5.8% in the last week.

 
Captain
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Posted: #170
https://politicalwire.com/2016/06/09/warren-will-endorse-clinton/

Warren will endorse HRC.  This will bring home plenty of liberal Sanders supporters (but not me).
 
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Posted: #171
The latest Real Clear Politics poll average has HRC up by 5.8 points.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html
 
Captain
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Posted: #172
It is not hopeless for Trump bettors.  This poll trendlines chart currently has HRC ahead by only 6.6%.

https://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-general-election-trump-vs-clinton

With 9.8% undecided and 6.4% for other candidates that may be subject to change, plus 4 1/2 months until the election, nothing is certain.
 
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Posted: #173
HRC leads in nearly all battleground states.

https://politicalwire.com/2016/06/28/clinton-leads-in-nearly-all-battlegrounds/

The fact that formerly deep-Red AZ is now considered a battleground state means that money might have to be spent there to shore up Trump's chances.  That is an overall edge to the Democrats and make their future chances somewhat brighter.
 
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Posted: #174
If you're a true gambling person...this election has to have you salivating at the potential bets ready to be made in the general from state to state betting. I don't care about political agendas when it comes to my bets...I just care about numbers. And Hillary is going to have massive value in these swing states when the general starts. But don't stop there...we will find great numbers on a couple states to bet on trump. If you're about making money on political bets...this will be a great election.
 
 
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Posted: #175
^ well said. hilary will likely be in the 315-330 range. a lot of swing states she will win by double digits

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