I’m not here to change anyone’s opinion. I’m here to make some money. All lines are from 5Dimes. Some may not like it but she is going to win. With Comey’s statement, she is no longer -600 territory, she is at -300 now.
To win Trump needs 270 electoral votes. I’m starting him with every state McCain won, 179 votes. I’m giving him Indiana, Ohio & Iowa; 56 shy. This is where the math really sinks in. Actual results are never too far from the polling averages. Competitive states:
FL (29) – Real Clear Politics (RCP) – average Trump +0.6%. 2012 Obama outperformed by 2.4%.
NC (15) – RCP – Tie. 2012 Obama outperformed by 1.0%
PA (20) – RCP – C +4.9%. 2012 Obama outperformed by 2.6%.
CO (9) – RCP – C +1.7%. 2012 Obama outperformed by 3.9%.
WI (10) – RCP – C +5.4%. 2012 Obama outperformed by 2.7%.
MI (16) – RCP – C +5.7%. 2012 Obama outperformed by 4.5%.
VA (13) – RCP – C +4.7%. 2012 Obama outperformed by 3.6%.
NV (6) – RCP – T +1.6%. 2012 Obama outperformed by 3.9%.
To win Trump needs multiple of these states that he is down. History shows that Republicans rarely out perform their polling averages. 2008 is much of the same too. Changing demographics and a flawed candidate are going to elect a very beatable Hillary Clinton.
State plays:
Clinton +110 in FL
Clinton -120 in NC
Clinton -300 in PA
Clinton -280 in NV
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