Considering the polls margin of error?

I commented in another thread, but I find it very interesting that for decades our polls have reported a margin of error of roughly 3%, give or take a percentage point. 

2016 missed by a whopping margin of error. Brexit missed by less, but still 20%. There are many from the socialist left here posting polls on a daily basis claiming victory for Biden with double digit leads. Should we believe that the margin of error is still 3% despite what happened in 2016 and with Brexit? 

What is different is the use of social media in our election process. In the world's last two elections, the margin of error was proven to be dramatically flawed. Why is this? Could it be the use of technology and social media? I contend that social media and technology have distorted and expanded the margin of error in our polls. 

More people than ever now answer falsely to the constant barrage of polls taking place. Others ignore and delete or refuse to answer. 

If you believe the 3% margin of error you may want to add a song to your Pandora playlist.....The Who's "Don't get fooled again". 

https://www.weeklyblitz.net/news/trump-has-a-91-percent-chance-at-re-election/

Helmut Norpoth, a political scientist, joined the Daily Caller’s Caity McDuffee to talk about his Primary Model that predicts President Donald Trump has a 91% chance of re-election.

The model has accurately predicted 25 out of 27 of the last elections, including Trump’s win in 2016.

 MAP

https://ibb.co/sVnjHVR

A 2018 Stanford University study found a very high correlation among the many available polling studies. They concluded that the modern day margin of error now easily doubles the traditional 3% moe. Additionally, the study concluded that excess margin of error was highly correlated among all polls.

For the simple minds here, that means that the error is typically expanded in the same direction, thus rendering a 30 poll consensus a useless tool.

Don't get fooled again!

4 more years!

Were the polls mainstream polls accurate in predicting Obama's two terms? Bush two terms? Clinton two terms? 

Or were they all wrong each of those years as well? 

obviously they were also totally wrong in every case   and in all the presidential elections before that too !

common knowledge . everyone knows this . the polls r never correct according to repos  

unless they confirm their beliefs       then those polls r  good

Ditzzy. The point of my post is the influence of social media and technology on the polling and how they have expanded the margin of error. 

Try to keep up. 

Do you need this explained further?

1. In 2016, the pollsters totally whiffed on the Great Lakes states. Non-college educated whites were not weighted correctly . In 2020, they’ve changed their methods.

2. In 2016, a ton of undecided voters broke late for Trump. In 2020, most of those voters have already decided.

3. In 2016, we had the mother of all October surprises, James Comey! In 2020, we have the most stable race in decades.

4. In 2016, district-level polls indicated a last-minute Democratic collapse. In 2020, they indicate Democratic strength.

5. In 2016, there wasn’t a global pandemic. In 2020, there is a global pandemic.

6. In 2016, Hillary’s favorability rating was under 45% Biden is polling over 50%

Obviously.

EXACTLY!     

Meaning a WORLD of effing difference!  Just not relevent to compare.

And then we have this knockout punch:

KEY FACT:

In the last 10 presidential elections with an *INCUMBENT* president,
if the president had positive approval to disapproval poll numbers,
he won re-election!

But if he had net negative approval numbers, he lost.

There are obvious reasons why this makes perfect sense!
In mid-October, this unique indicator has been a 100% predictive model !

Hey FLUBah. Is it possible for you to use larger fonts so we can all see your stupidity larger than life?

      to me that is the real bottom line

no incumbent has ever won reelection failing to get at least 50% approval

You do not think any pollsters learned from 2016 and adjusted accordingly in 2020?? 

 It seems like you just like to ramble a lot without saying much to comfort yourself.

I guess that is why you are known as Rambleholic 

Was social media not around in 2008 or 2012 when Obama was elected and the polls were accurate ???? 

Funny.

Of course they did. 

Although it was an obvious  one-off that  DEPENDED on WikiLeaks and James Comey to come to fruition, nevertheless professional pollsters were embarrassed.  They found their errors in undercounting UNeducated male and UNeducated femal voters, rural voters, and the fact their polls consistently oversampled DEMOCRATS by a significant margin.

Like any football team, you learn from what went wrong in the first half and you go into halftime and make adjustments based on vital new information.  You evolve.   Or your business dies.

They made the adjustments. 

The polls now are far more accurate.

It's "wishful thinking" at best to think pollsters didn't learn and make crucial adjustments. In fact it's just illogical to believe that.

Furthermore, not only are the polls waaaaay more accurate now, three things which are key:

1/  Clinton was not liked even by the Dems. Her favorable rating was in the 40's

Yet Clinton still whupped trump by nearly 3 million votes!

Joe otoh is liked, popular (even if NOT the best choice) and about 55% positive favorability.

2/  Despite Comey and WikiLeaks dragging down Clinton in the final 10 days, she was still ahead about 3 pts with 2 days to go and ultimately won the popular vote by +2.1

Joe Biden, otoh is ahead at least +7.5 pts with much more accurate polls!!!

3/  Incumbents DO NOT WIN with negative approval numbers.  EVER.  trump has less thn 24 hrs to turn that completely around to positive. (polling average, not just one poll!)

@DeezyAZ81

 I know resorting to jokes and cutdowns is your way of communicating, so for 30 seconds I am going to hold my nose and converse with you. My point is that I believe that the same mistakes are being made again. I suppose we will know tomorrow. 

God bless you either way. 

one thing for sure is they r not making the same mistakes again

Funny you claim that you don't resort to jokes and cutdowns when you refer to me as a childish and stupid nickname "Ditzzy" in your initial response to my post in this thread. 

Yet when I give it back to you, you suddenly get all sensitive. OOHHHHH they sooo sensitiiivveeee. 

Of course you believe the same mistakes are being made again because that is the only narrative and justification you choose to believe for Trump possibly losing after trailing in the polls so badly. 

You love conspiracy narratives and explanations.

If you think no adjustments are made in polling since the mistakes of 4 years ago, you seriously lack critical thinking skills and are a reality denier. 

Hummmmm......it would seem that the pollsters made the same mistakes just as I suspected they would. 

HIT THE ROAD DEMOCRAT LEFTISTS. Your train to socialism hit a brick wall and is taking you off the government's nipple.

It's still too early to celebrate, but it appears that the same people who were duped in 2016 were duped again in 2020. If that's how it turns out, then they learned nothing in 4 years and will probably learn nothing the rest of their lives. But let's see how it turns out. It's not over yet.

The Who is singing to them but they got fooled again anyway. 

The polls were 100% COMPLETE GARBAGE.

So over the past week much of the left media has questioned why the polls were so far off again? Some journalists on CNN even questioned if many in the "polling business" would retain their jobs after being so wrong again. The predicted Blue Wave remains a fantasy. To see actual blue waves, democrats will need to head to the Bahama islands. 

....so I came back to this thread to reassess some of the comments that were made to me on November 3rd, 4th and 5th only to find that these posts are missing. Those are the posts from the left that defended the polls after the election basically came down to a toss up. I was lambasted as an idiot and a moron and that the polls were indeed accurate. I was accused of not even understanding what a margin of error was, despite the fact that I have an MBA with a concentration in Statistics.

Where are those posts? Why were they removed? 

Regardless, those that came in and commented, I didn't forget your comments and it doesn't surprise me that your comments mysteriously vanished.

On Netflix,  a documentary called the social dilemma,  watch it.... it might help clear or answer some things.... btw to show such media bias,  biden will possibly be called president in mid December... media just bullying the public.. if that passes then biden can start  to be called president elect.

@scooby-doos

 I have Netflix....will check it out. Thanks. It amazes me how censored our world has become. The left here benefits from having their own false statements vaporized just like Facebook and Twitter silence the right. 

Their silly and incorrect and mocking and nasty posts in this thread have disappeared. Why? 

It is now a fact that I was correct about corruption and bias in our polls. I will watch  the social dilemma.

Now they are 25 out of last 28. 91% of chance of Trump re-election was way more inaccurate than polls predicting Biden victory. 

From your source

"The model predicts President Trump will win 362 electoral votes, leaving Biden with 176."

Yikes, just a tad bit outside.