DNC Convention

@kcblitzkrieg

 Post 49- pretty sure Ive said darn close to the exact words several times here in the past on this topic.

@jesron1269

 He is in Arizona Jman 

@wallstreetcappers

 No, you aren't getting it.  

RFK jr's entire anti-big pharma position regarding the covid vaxx is 100% what you wrote out yourself above.  Exactly...To...The...T.  Kudos sir.  

But yet you call him an "anti-vaxx wacko" when YOU...YOU yourself in your own words, with your very own thoughts and feelings on the matter, described the SAME ANTI-VACC WEIRDO stance.  

So if both YOU and RFKjr have the exact same 100% sentiments on the covid vaccine.....well, you see the identical correlation here right??  

@kcblitzkrieg

 The difference is he took liberties to exaggerate impacts that were proven false and fake, I have not done that. So when he took examples of situations to exaggerate the events then he turns from reasonable to wacko..that was my point. 

My comments about why I didnt take the vax had nothing to do with RFK, I have never followed the guy and I dont plan to, it only has to do with my experience investigating the biotech space and I have a close friend who is in a high position in the bio space in Calif and over a few decades we have discussed trials and the nuances that come with that process plus Ive invested in MANY MANY bios over my time and I know the process so when this was happening I was not convinced and I am still not convinced that it was done correctly. There were a few on here who got pretty ticked off about my approach to that topic and we had some back and forth about it...you might be surprised at some of the people who were trying to bash me on my position. Of course the basher groups here are always the same, one side turns to bashing and attacking when discussion gets deep, the other side will state their view and for the most part be VERY VERY respectful even with a difference of opinion. That should clue you in on who I am referencing as to the attacking and combative environment about the VAX.

Its pretty easy to investigate my claims regarding RFK and flip flopping, his past is public and it is also easy to find his lies and exaggeration regarding impacts and events, it is public...I have no reason to make something up that you cannot find out yourself.

@wallstreetcappers

No Wall I didn't exaggerate anything. I am talking about clear impact on my family and wealth. Truth is when people vote they vote on the impacts on them. National average doesn't mean shit to me when I am paying 50% more over the course of 4 years under one administration than the other. Data I can support with my own finances. This isn't my recollection, this isn't a feeling but pure raw data. Its great that in the middle of the country they get a break and gas prices aren't as bad bringing down the average but where I am living and where I have for quite some time they can be shall we say excessive. Sadly it isn't just gas prices they are also in the grocery store, going out to eat (even fast food) and any type of entertainment options. Yeah I will discount it a little with just fact inflation over time but not like this. I see you only argue gas and didn't touch the rest. You can believe what you want but to argue that my personal experience is wrong and frankly calling me a liar is pretty disgusting. No if you were in Canada you inserting yourself in American politics (but especially how politics affects personal finances) is ridiculous. My buddy lives in Rome and if I were to think I knew more about his political/economic issues then him would be pure arrogance. Clearly I was mistaken on that end and I apologize for making that assumption. But my point is well taken if it were true and it isn't about class it is about reality. Its unfortunate you can't see the difference.

You will always receive fake science and fake numbers from Lefties to support perpetual false narratives! 

@jesron1269

 It is not to say that gas prices have not gone up under Biden.  It is to say that if you flatten out the rise and account for inflation over a very longterm the inflation rate for gas is very close to level.  You can see this on this chart, and you will notice a perceptible dip during the Pandemic and a sharp rise under Biden.  This is where a lot of people draw the distinction.  But since that rise the inflation and price of gas has come down. So you can scroll down and in the chart it shows the 'price' graphed and the 'inflation adjusted' price graphed as well.

https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/gasoline-prices-adjusted-for-inflation/

The issue is the same with a lot of things.  The current President will get the blame/credit for it WHILE he is in office.  However, with oil it is more anticipatory and very lagging whatever policy changes may or may not happen.  I have written a lot on this and explained how it is very seasonal as well.  You can track, for example, how the markets reacted to Trump's election and how they reacted to Biden's election.  But a lot of that is superficial and short-lasting.  You can go to the EIA site and see this in the various charts they have.  Absolutely, the price of everything is up -- and that includes gas.  For sure, Biden's anti-oil moves coming into office caused a jump in prices.  Then the recovery in demand after the Pandemic jump started them.  But a lot of that is anticipatory action and has subsided quite a bit.  For sure, if you have the refineries at 90-95% capacity, then having a backlog of oil is an issue.  So, even though the lease issue and pipeline issues are a concern -- another concern is the lack of new refineries.

I make a lot of energy trades and some I have explained in minor detail on here.  Because there is a lot more to it.  But all of this has to be factored in. But the President may be 'good or bad' for the oil industry in a 'friendly or unfriendly' way -- he does not really have that much 'control' over pricing.  

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=emm_epm0_pte_nus_dpg&f=m

https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/gasoline/prices-and-outlook.php

https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/gasoline-inflation-in-the-united-states/

The above charts will show, to a degree, the seasonality part I am referring to and the state that the commodity had been in since mid-Obama until post-Pandemic.  You will notice that it is up but has come down to around the expected range.

This is not to dismiss any of your points about gas or food.  Because those are the two biggest expenses anyone has even if their housing is paid off.  They are very noticeable because you see them, more or less, on a weekly basis -- instead of a yearly or monthly basis.

To date, the average gasoline price during President Biden’s term — with nearly two years still to go — is $3.60/gallon. That is on a pace to be the highest average under any president. Here is how prices stack up per gallon, from lowest to highest average for their terms:

1. Joe Biden (partial term) — $3.60
2. Barack Obama first term — $3.12
3. Barack Obama second term — $2.95
4. George W. Bush second term — $2.77
5. Donald Trump — $2.57
6. George W. Bush first term — $1.59
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Stewart also called out Biden for his “sheer hypocrisy” on the gas price issue.

Biden, he said, spent “decades beating up on the oil and gas industry,” and then profited off of it when he was out of office as his son, Hunter Biden, traveled the globe cutting oil deals, and then as president is “back in and trying to to hamstring and to kneecap our industry again.”

As The Free Press reported, President Biden this week bashed the oil industry as Hurricane Ian approached Florida. He told energy companies not to “gouge” consumers because of the storm.

The Free Press also noted Biden pledged in April to drain 1 million barrels a day over a six-month period in response to Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.

Yet Biden began siphoning off the national reserves in October 2021 to combat rising gas prices. 

Yes, you can blame Biden for crazy gas prices—here’s why

This July 4th, as you fill up your car or truck, you might be tempted to blame President Joe Biden for high gasoline prices.

You shouldn’t, say some experts. It’s Russian President Vladimir Putin’s fault, they say. The US had to cut off Russian oil imports to punish Putin for invading Ukraine.

Meanwhile, Biden himself has blamed the American energy industry.

“At a time of war,” Biden wrote in an open letter to the industry on June 15, “high refinery profit margins being passed directly onto American families are not acceptable… companies must take immediate actions to increase the supply of gasoline, diesel, and other refined product.”

But US refineries are already operating at 94 percent of their capacity, with US refineries in the Gulf of Mexico running at 98 percent, which is the highest rate in 30 years. Running refineries at a higher capacity than that risks damaging the equipment. As such, Biden isn’t just wrong, he insulted some of the hardest working people operating in one of the most dangerous industries in America.

If Biden wants more American fuel, then he should allow the building of new refineries, right?

But, on May 12, Biden’s Interior Department blocked a proposal to open up more than one million acres of land in Alaska for oil and gas drilling. Two days later, Biden’s Environmental Protection Agency blocked plans to expand an oil refinery in the US Virgin Islands.

Biden and his defenders said he had to block the expansion of the Virgin Islands refinery, given how polluting it was.

But had Biden’s EPA allowed the Virgin Island refinery to expand, the owners would have poured nearly $3 billion into retrofitting the plant so it produced gasoline and other products more cleanly, while significantly increasing production at the same time.

Furthermore, anybody who cares about air pollution and climate change should want more oil and gas drilling, not less. US emissions declined 22% between 2005 and 2020, mostly because cheap natural gas has replaced coal.

In truth, there are many things Biden could have done, and still should do, to lower energy prices. He could invoke the National Defense Act to accelerate the rate of oil and gas permits. He could set a floor of $80/barrel for re-filling the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), which would be a powerful incentive for the industry, because it would prevent prices from falling to unprofitable levels. Biden could announce trade agreements with American allies to supply them with liquified natural gas, which would incentivize more natural gas production and lower prices.

If Biden got America on a wartime footing, as he should be given Russia’s aggression in Europe, we would see the lowering of oil, gas and petroleum prices in less than one year.

Why won’t Biden do it? Because he has declared war on fossil fuels. “I guarantee you, we’re going to end fossil fuel,” Biden promised a student climate activist in 2019. “I am not going to cooperate with them,” he said, referring to the oil and gas industry.

And indeed, he hasn’t. When oil and gas executives visited the White House in June, Biden snubbed them by refusing to attend the meeting. Instead, at the very same moment, he met with wind industry executives. A few days earlier, Biden administration officials signaled they may support a large new tax on the oil industry proposed by a Senator from Oregon.

All of this has soured the oil and gas industry on investing in production. “If you were an oil company,” a senior executive at a major US bank told me, why would you invest hundreds of millions of dollars into expanding refining capacity if you thought the federal government or investors would shut you down in the next few years? The narrative coming from the administration is absolutely insane.”

And it’s about to get more insane. At the G-7 meeting in Germany earlier this week, French President Emmanuel Macron was overheard telling Biden that he couldn’t count on Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to produce much more oil. Implicit in Macron’s remarks was that the US needs to produce far more than Biden has been willing to allow.

The problem is that Biden is in the grip of a pro-scarcity ideology that demands humankind return to relying 100 percent on renewables, like we did before the industrial revolution. But that’s a delusion. Solar panels and electric cars, which rely on lithium battery power, have indeed become cheaper in recent years, but that’s mostly because China uses coerced Uyghur Muslim labor to produce those batteries. If those technologies were made in the US by workers paid a living wage, they would never be affordable.

On energy, as with so many other issues in recent years, you can’t believe the experts. They, too, are motivated by the pro-scarcity, romantic delusions that animate Biden’s energy agenda.

And so, when you fill up your car or truck, and you feel tempted to blame President Biden for high gasoline prices, go right ahead. Because it really is his fault.

The above are some of what the folks had been, and still are, saying at the time.

Some, is still valid, but some is exaggerated.

@jesron1269

 Trump wont be able to drop crude to under 40 based on rhetoric and social media gripping, that is not how commodity markets function...Biden in office commodity prices world wide higher...Trump in office commodity prices world wide lower, it does not work like that. 

Does reality not factor in to your decision making process? Do you seriously think that a politician can control a world wide monopoly one versus the other? Our output is HIGHER now than under Trump...can you make sense of this truth? Or are you just one of those blame oriented people (it seems this way given your Canada comment) that is oblivious to facts and truth? 

To get you that under 2 per gallon you have two options and really there are only TWO options...pick which you like- 1) Self produce as a continent and take over the oil and refining industry, nationalize it and do not export..keep 100% of national production in the US and allow nothing to leave. 2) Face the FEAR of global recession or the actual recession taking place. The reason why oil dropped and you got your precious 2 bucks a gallon was that we were teetering on the brink of recession and it is also why at the same time the stock market got WRECKED..just pull up your Quickbooks look at the dates in question then go pull up an SPX chart and line them up.

Commodity prices in a capitalistic economy are NOT tied to a politician, Trump lies to you and you WANT to believe it, so you will watch these pied piper ads and watch his fake lies speeches and hate filled diatribes and you WANT to believe it, you want that 5 seconds of time spent investigating so you can blame Biden for all your woes, blame Biden for inflation, higher gas prices for loss of purchase power for all the global issues for your ingrown toenails for the leaky roof for getting a flat tire on the way to work.

None of your woes or blames are due to Biden...but hey that 5 second investment can yield 100% value I tell ya...

Meant to post this as well:

According to a May 2 analysis from Yahoo Finance senior columnist Rick Newman, the average gas price was $2.47 per gallon when Trump took office in January 2017. The average for his entire four-year term was $2.57, or $2.67 if you omit the peak-COVID era from his last 10 months in office when nearly nonexistent demand sent prices crashing.

Conversely, the average price per gallon during Biden’s presidency so far is $3.61 — 40% more than even Trump’s higher average. Gas peaked at over $5 for the first time ever in June 2022.

When adjusted for inflation, Trump’s average is $3.18 in 2024 dollars, 21% less than Biden’s inflation-adjusted price of $3.86.

But gas prices were cheaper during Trump’s presidency for reasons that had nothing to do with Trump and are no longer in force. Anybody who thinks Trump would take some kind of decisive action to lower energy prices if he wins a second presidential term is likely to end up deeply disappointed.

First, the facts. Oil and gasoline prices were subdued from 2014 through early 2021, which included the Trump presidency. When Trump took office in January 2017, the average price of gas was $2.47 per gallon. The average for his entire four-year term was only slightly higher, at $2.57. Excluding the COVID pandemic that dominated Trump’s last 10 months in office and sent oil and gas prices plummeting, the average pump price was $2.67.

When Biden took office in January 2021, gas prices averaged $2.42. But they shot up along with oil prices, peaking at $5 per gallon in June 2022. Through Biden’s presidency so far, gas prices have averaged $3.61. That’s 40% higher than gas prices during Trump’s entire term and 35% higher if you exclude the COVID period.

Even adjusting for inflation, gas prices have been considerably higher under Biden. The average Trump price, in 2024 dollars, was $3.18. The average Biden price was $3.86. That’s 21% higher under Biden, adjusted for inflation.

It might seem easy to conclude that Biden is responsible for the higher gas prices of the last two years, since Biden is a green energy champion who has bad-mouthed the fossil fuel industry. Trump, by contrast, cheers oil and gas and says his energy policy is “drill, baby, drill.”

But market forces that no US president can control explain the recent history of oil and gas prices far more than anything Trump or Biden has done. Those market forces also negate the idea that Trump or any president could enact policies that would somehow lower gasoline and other energy costs for American consumers.

Generally, poor countries that produce oil have the lowest gas prices in the world.  Usually rich countries have the highest prices.  However US is a great exception with the lowest gas prices among rich countries. 

@Raiders22

 This is why I have no need for Yahoo Finance articles..lol that is quite the captain obvious stuff right there.

Instead of letting others do the work and put their spin on things, just look at the date and draw your own conclusions, no need for silly articles and others work when data is easy to find and answers all your questions.

Two facts- First, OPEC is a monopoly that controls world production and pricing, we export most of our production thus we are controlled by OPEC. Our production as a country and a continent are HIGHER now than when Trump was in office, there is no drill baby drill nonsense, we are drilling and as you posted what someone else wrote and anyone with a brain knows, our refineries are working near peak rates...that means drill baby drill is click bait for the lesser intelligent lazy folk.

Crude prices determine gas prices, so since we are drilling and producing more then outside of nationalizing production we have absolutely no control over the price of gas at the pump. Reducing taxes is a terrible idea, gas taxes in most states are what fund highway and road repairs and our roadways are a disaster in need of massive improvements and upkeep so if anything taxes are not enough, our roads are a mess.

@thirdperson

 I think that is due to our low taxation on gas at the pump, in most of Europe gas prices are enormously higher and that is due to taxes, Europe actually uses higher gas prices as a way to guide their citizens to not rely on gas guzzler cars and either focus on fuel economy or use transit options where in the US our gluttonous population will NOT be told to consider fuel economy because we can do whatever WE want and wont be told otherwise.

Yes, but he did a good job of quoting the guy which did a good job of explaining some of the nuances on the commodity that is easy to understand without getting too complex and detailed.  That way folks can see a lot of it is perspective.  

Correct, even if you isolate out OPEC and look at other countries output there are many more factors that will cause the price to fluctuate.

That is why we saw some of the drop on anticipation, along with seasonality, -- then saw the jump -- then the reversion.  You can go look at the charts that track the difference and see the prices spread apart and then close up -- then finally even back closer to the normal spread.

But these things have to all be looked at together to explain moves that may, or may not be, an anomaly.

That is where I make a lot of my shorter term trades.  

The market will certainly respond to anticipation from time to time.  But overall the President will not, normally, have an effect longterm.

The guy that he was quoting was a good job breaking these things down for folks that have no need to understand the minutia of the details.

@thirdperson

While this is true, it does not show the whole picture.

Even though the USA prices are far cheaper than EU countries.  For example, the percentage of their income the folks in the USA spend on gas is far more, often around twice as much in the USA than EU countries.  You have to consider the miles driven/person and the lack of mass transit and walking and biking, etc. in the USA versus EU countries.  The USA is far larger than those countries and has many more remote areas, etc., etc.

This is the entire reason why "drill baby drill" is a scam and a hustle used to fool stupid US voters who cant spend five minutes to educate themselves-

https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=727&t=6

The US in aggregate exports 40% of our production because gee wiz we are a capitalist economy and our corps care about profits not national pride or about gas prices to the consumer. Our corps are in the gig to make a profit not to protect the US economy from OPEC and to lower gas prices. Corps have forward agreements with other countries for our products before they are even considered products, they sell future production for a locked in price to guarantee revenues and profits. Canada is the same and likely even a higher percentage if I recall correctly.

If you listen and vote based on what a sleezebag politician tells you and it is not even worth the time or effort to educate yourselves then who can complain about the state of your life?

Drill Baby Drill

Well, you have to take into account the lack of the infrastructure, like newer refineries and the lack of pipelines to get the lighter oil to the refineries if they could process it.

The USA refineries are set up to handle the heavier oil from, say, Venezuela.  

So, while the USA is a net oil exporter, it is more about the processing problem than a mere profit reason.  Not to dismiss profits altogether, but there is far more to it.

Basically, the light, sweet oil is being exported to be processed.  Of course, the Russia/Ukraine war and then WTI, in 2023, started to be included in the Dated Brent.  Both of those had impacts as well.

@Raiders22

 Nope...that is not the issue at all. So go read an article somewhere to validate your proof since what you are suggesting has no historical stats to back it up and no proof of any kind.

We have plenty of refineries and Valero processes lots of sour crude for frackers and oil/tar sand products from Canada. The government is not to blame for refineries not being built and Biden is not in charge of refineries being built and Trump is not going to get refineries built but none of that has to do with the fact our production is at all time highs, yet we export 40% of our products, that has to do with our corps seeking profits and maximizing their capital, generating a return. If an oil company wanted to build a refinery they would do so, the issues with that are it is a massive capital outlay to build and it takes a long long time to do so. 

If US corps were even remotely motivated to the US consumer they would not export refined products or import the products refined in places that are CHEAPER, yes cheaper and bring it back to the US for our use. Corps export both raw product AND refined end products. 

Once the barge leaves the port to go anywhere then the US no longer has control over production or refining and trust me Valero does not give a rats behind about the poor consumer whining about 2 buck gas, they only care about profits and maximizing a return for shareholders.

This might sound strange but I would actually have a TINY bit more respect for the pied piper if he were to come out and say that if he is elected again he would nationalize production and not allow a SINGLE DROP to leave the US. Given that our production is at ALL TIME HIGHS the true and only solution is to not allow US corps to export raw or finished products unless crude is below X price and US gas national average is below X price, nationalize the whole stupid thing and take control over crude inflation.

Wanna see OPEC crap their pants? Nationalize production and put a ban on exports...or better yet put a TARIFF on exported products, slap those greedy corps for exporting to max profits and you would see pricing come down VERY fast.

Drill baby drill...what a bunch of suckers.

@wallstreetcappers

 Maybe this can help you understand some of it:

Growth in crude oil production in the United States has supported increases in U.S. crude oil exports. In 2023, crude oil production reached a record-high 12.9 million b/d in the United States, a 9% (1.0 million b/d) increase from 2022. Many U.S. refineries are optimized to run heavy, sour crude oils, but most of the crude oil produced in the United States is light, sweet crude oil, creating export incentives for market participants.

The top regional destinations for U.S. crude oil exports since 2018 have been Europe as well as Asia and Oceania. Europe became the top export destination in 2023 following the effects of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and the inclusion of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil in Dated Brent. In 2022, U.S. crude oil exports to Europe increased significantly following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and subsequent EU sanctions banning imports of seaborne crude oil from Russia (adopted June 3, effective December 5). These effects of the sanctions contributed to continued growth in U.S. exports to Europe in 2023. In 2023, U.S. crude oil exports to Europe averaged 1.8 million b/d, slightly more than U.S. exports to Asia and Oceania of 1.7 million b/d.

Another factor affecting the volume of U.S. crude oil exports to Europe is the inclusion of WTI crude oil in Dated Brent, a European crude oil benchmark. Prior to May 2023, the price of Dated Brent was determined based on a basket of different European crude oils. Starting in May 2023 (for physical delivery in June), WTI cargoes delivered to Rotterdam were included, likely attracting additional volumes to Europe.

This points out some of the problems with the infrastructure:

To feed those refineries, last year the U.S. imported more than 8.5 million barrels of petroleum a day. Meanwhile, the U.S. also exported more than 10 million barrels a day. 

Wait, what? Why are we selling that oil instead of using it ourselves?

It’s mostly a chemistry problem. The crude oil we’re buying is thick and has lots of sulfur, hence it’s called heavy sour. The stuff we’re pulling up isn’t and doesn’t, so it’s called light sweet.

“All that variation in the chemistry of the oil means that you can’t refine all oil the same way. They have to go through different processes,” said Hugh Daigle, a professor of petroleum engineering at the University of Texas at Austin.

He said our refineries were designed to process oil coming from Mexico and Venezuela. “And a lot of that tends to be relatively heavy and relatively high in sulfur,” he said.

Then a little over a decade ago, shale fracking took off in the U.S., and so did the supply of light sweet oil. But even if U.S. refineries could flip a switch and start refining that oil, GasBuddy analyst Patrick De Haan said it’s coming out of the ground in the wrong places.

“The need is infrastructure,” he said. “You may produce all this light sweet crude oil in Texas. But if you don’t have pipelines to the nation’s refineries to deliver it, how are you going to be able to utilize it?”

So importing foreign crude oil is cheaper. Meanwhile, De Haan said, increasing renewable energy demand is making investments in fossil fuels riskier.

On top of the infrastructure obstacles, economist Kevin Hack with the Energy Information Administration said the U.S. gets a better deal from countries with heavy sour oil supplies.

“Because it’s harder to refine them, they tend to be priced more cheaply than a light sweet crude oil,” he said. 

So we buy and refine the cheaper stuff, and we sell our more expensive stuff to places that can’t do that. There’s one more discount: The majority of our oil comes from our closest neighbor.

So, certainly there is profit in it.  But the complete reasoning and necessity to export it is multi-faceted.