Market crash

@wallstreetcappers

 Of course I say no....the FED is playing a chess game on multiple levels for multiple central banks. 

Yes, they have been playing this CB game for quite some time and that will continue as it has been working.  If you read JPOW's statement he specifically outlines their current outlook on the two long standing mandates of "lower inflation" and "unemployment / jobs".  He characterized inflation as being "tamed" and this move more precautionary for their jobs mandate.  "The economy is fine" is what they always say.  I wouldn't characterize the 50 bips cut due to the general "economy" but it is a reflection of what many consider a previous policy mistake.  You said it yourself, "they moved too high too fast and used old theory".  

Inflation is not "tamed".  If history is any lesson we will be looking at inflation rates back back upwards of 8% within the next 2-3 years.  Obviously a lot can happen in that time frame but the CB's will continue to play the game that has been working for them thus far.  Let's see what the BOJ does rate wise here with their statement of monetary policy due out tomorrow. 

It was also interesting Powell dipped his toes into the immigration discussion....

"Powell responded by indicating that the influx of immigrants has contributed to the rise in unemployment, alongside a slower hiring rate.

@wallstreetcappers

 Of course I say no....the FED is playing a chess game on multiple levels for multiple central banks. 

Yes, they have been playing this CB game for quite some time and that will continue as it has been working.  If you read JPOW's statement he specifically outlines their current outlook on the two long standing mandates of "lower inflation" and "unemployment / jobs".  He characterized inflation as being "tamed" and this move more precautionary for their jobs mandate.  "The economy is fine" is what they always say.  I wouldn't characterize the 50 bips cut due to the general "economy" but it is a reflection of what many consider a previous policy mistake.  You said it yourself, "they moved too high too fast and used old theory".  

Inflation is not "tamed".  If history is any lesson we will be looking at inflation rates back back upwards of 8% within the next 2-3 years.  Obviously a lot can happen in that time frame but the CB's will continue to play the game that has been working for them thus far.  Let's see what the BOJ does rate wise here with their statement of monetary policy due out tomorrow. 

It was also interesting Powell dipped his toes into the immigration discussion....

"Powell responded by indicating that the influx of immigrants has contributed to the rise in unemployment, alongside a slower hiring rate.

@wallstreetcappers

 I think it has zero to do with jobs 

You think it has zero to do with jobs even though JPOW told you the exact opposite ??  

Take at look at this chart:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE

Now compare it to the previous times they cut 50 bips 

https://x.com/chesterchy1/status/1836489195868569834

Notice anything?  Care to revise your statement "it has nothing to do with jobs" ?? 

@kcblitzkrieg

 Nah I stick with my thesis and I gave my reasons why. The jobs market alone does not justify a 50bps move. Look at the FRED chart on government interest payments and there is a better answer. The FED to me tried to hammer inflation out by raising rates hot and fast, too high and they thought they could make the splash and then ease out when inflation quickly exited. They were wrong in their blunt tool usage, this isnt Volcker era, the economy is more complex and banks are not taking FED cash, lending and so on and so on, the money multiplier that worked for Volcker did not work for ANY of the FED dopes for the last 20 years. They tried expanding policy to raise inflation, that failed, they tried choking monetary policy to end inflation quickly, that failed. 

The problem is the FED has blunt tools that are exploited by capitalist banks and private equity/hedgies/HFT firms all sorts of outfits slurp off FED funds and exploit the outdated, ineffective tools they have. They had to reverse course because it was harming governments (plural) and the USD was too hot, their experiment was very damaging and they have little to no tools to impact inflation or employment outside the margin.

Listening to the JP spin does not mean what he is selling is the truth OR accurate. If rates were at 2% would the FED have cut 50bps due to the current job market? Of course not.

JPOW nor I ever said it has to do with "the job markets alone".  It was very clearly stated.  There has been ONE DUAL mandate.  Inflation and jobs.  JPOW ruled out inflation and specifically said JOBS.  Now I agree with you that it is not "job market alone" but to completely dismiss it without the acknowledgment of this simple clearly stated fact is just silly.  

I agree with you on everything else you stated above.  

You also skipped over the entire JPOW bit on immigration influences.  Why did you do this?  

@kcblitzkrieg

Because JP is not in the government, I really spend zero time listening to anything these guys say, they are all crooked bots IMO..ever since Greenspam I've tuned them out and I am better for it. JP has few tools and the FED does a poor job at all of their mandates, the mandate of most value that is not discussed is their dreaded lack of control over the leveraged capitalist mega banks. The fact the FED allows and blesses the way banks exploit FED funds and overnight REPOS to me means they have zero mandates and zero added value to the economy. I think their mandates are on paper the inflation and jobs, well they suck at those mandates so what good are they if their tools have so little impact?

Their mandates that are both unstated and under analyzed are to facilitate big banks, to support the global FED cabal and to retain control over monetary policy. Those are their real mandates, the other stuff is rice paper garbage. Big banks control the FED, their value to the economy is misguided, dishonest and deceptive.

@BigGame90

 Do not know if you kept up with FAS or not since back then.

It is now up a tad over 17% and the S&P is up just under 3%.

I expect it to continue on this path upward as they continue to drop the interest rates.