@kcblitzkrieg
Certainly, if for no other reason but by simple default.
But to ‘reverse’ anything Biden has done with new legislation would require help from Congress and he is unlikely to have enough of that. Sure, some EOs would help.
Very rarely can inflation be directly tied to a President’s actions. However, in this case, a part of it is directly related to the influx of money into the economy. This is directly a Biden policy, along with the Democrats in Congress.
When you put $3T into the economy and have that flowing through the system coupled with the supply issues — you have a classic example of ‘too much money chasing too few goods’.
Even in a time without a Pandemic this was resulting in only a .4-.5% increase in buying goods. So, we seem to think the folks were stashing the money into savings and using it as income-replacement.
Then you couple that with the FED’s mismanagement of the situation. They are always either reacting too late and too slow or ‘fighting the last battle’. I talked about this at the beginning. The FED should have gotten out in front of this and not tried to downplay the potential for inflation, then that the rate of increase would be short-lived, and then that it would be coming down soon.
They needed to get out in front of this. They knew it was coming; we all could see this coming. They did not and this is all on Powell. Certainly, the next guy might be ‘lucky’ with natural actions making things better — but he has to take the blame and go. That is what the job comes with. You can easily argue he got ‘unlucky’ with the times, just as you can say Greenspan got ‘lucky’ with an easily managed economy. But he absolutely should be replaced.
Then add the way the managers of companies got ‘spooked’ and had to cut back and sell off, etc. Some of these actions seemed appropriate at the time, but obviously, in hind site were completely the wrong thing to do.
So, yes, if Trump were to reverse some of the poor decisions of Biden that he can; get some help from Congress to pass helpful legislation; replace Powell with a better manager — then all of that would help.
But the easiest way to see Trump having success at getting it down is simply by default. Because, if no further poor legislation spending bills are pushed through this will get through the system soon.
The way I see it that can be somewhere between 18-24 months.
Then it will be like most things that happen when someone is in office: they get credit for the good and blame for the bad.
The question would be if it would get much worse than it currently is and I do not think so.
But for sure, some of the same thing that happened last time is that just the ‘idea’ of a business-friendly President coming into office will help. The companies, energy sector, and markets will react to this. This anticipatory reaction could help him with the inflation as well. Obviously, a different direction is needed and you will not get that with Biden and the Democrats in charge.