This eerily reminds me of the Colts/Saints superbowl with respects to the line movement.... and only the line movement lol
I remember because it was the first superbowl I lost because I hammered the Colts moneyline after winning 5 straight before that.
The line started out at around 6 points, the line went down even though the public was allll over the Colts (including me)
I got a lesson in reverse line movement after that loss.... I wasn't sure where/when the sharps were betting and it seems more information on that is provided now.
Anyway, the public is allllll over the Ravens, still at 3.5, yet the line is moving back up before game day. We can all sit here and read these articles about the sharps....
I'm not a pro at this stuff but for me I kinda feel that the sharps got most of their bets in at the origonal 5 point line....
To me, the line should not be going back-up that high unless the public is betting SF. But it doesn't seem like that's the case....
I expect things to change on gameday....
again, I'm not great at reading into these lines and I really don't figure this into my capping, but I think there is evidence of reverse line movement
GL TO ALL!
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Quote Originally Posted by hotdamn85:
its already -4 (-105)
And SF Moneyline back up to -180
This eerily reminds me of the Colts/Saints superbowl with respects to the line movement.... and only the line movement lol
I remember because it was the first superbowl I lost because I hammered the Colts moneyline after winning 5 straight before that.
The line started out at around 6 points, the line went down even though the public was allll over the Colts (including me)
I got a lesson in reverse line movement after that loss.... I wasn't sure where/when the sharps were betting and it seems more information on that is provided now.
Anyway, the public is allllll over the Ravens, still at 3.5, yet the line is moving back up before game day. We can all sit here and read these articles about the sharps....
I'm not a pro at this stuff but for me I kinda feel that the sharps got most of their bets in at the origonal 5 point line....
To me, the line should not be going back-up that high unless the public is betting SF. But it doesn't seem like that's the case....
I expect things to change on gameday....
again, I'm not great at reading into these lines and I really don't figure this into my capping, but I think there is evidence of reverse line movement
Pardon my simplicity, but I always bet the night after the Championship games, cause I don't want to be affected by 2 weeks of hyperbole.
That being said, Balt + 3.5 was my pick. I believe SF's inability to pressure the QB since J. Smiths injury, and The Raven's D's ability to control the middle of the field will be the difference. A close physical game will ultimately hinge on red zone success and kicking games. The Niners will come out strong, dominating TOP and yardage, but missed opportunities will prove costly. Ravens win 27-23.
GL to all!
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Pardon my simplicity, but I always bet the night after the Championship games, cause I don't want to be affected by 2 weeks of hyperbole.
That being said, Balt + 3.5 was my pick. I believe SF's inability to pressure the QB since J. Smiths injury, and The Raven's D's ability to control the middle of the field will be the difference. A close physical game will ultimately hinge on red zone success and kicking games. The Niners will come out strong, dominating TOP and yardage, but missed opportunities will prove costly. Ravens win 27-23.
There are articles by local sportsbook directors that explain why the line was so high. In the west this is Niner country. They have the money at 60 40 and anticipate Niner money by the weekend thus getting closer to the 50 50.
i got 5.5 in vegas 10 minutes after the Balt Ne game. During the first game there was far more niner bettors than the other 3 teams. In this game there is nothing to be gleened fron the line movement on the outcome of the game. Personally I think the books will come out on the plus side BALT
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Check out VegasInsider.com
There are articles by local sportsbook directors that explain why the line was so high. In the west this is Niner country. They have the money at 60 40 and anticipate Niner money by the weekend thus getting closer to the 50 50.
i got 5.5 in vegas 10 minutes after the Balt Ne game. During the first game there was far more niner bettors than the other 3 teams. In this game there is nothing to be gleened fron the line movement on the outcome of the game. Personally I think the books will come out on the plus side BALT
Niners Win By more than 7 points... the more I look at the matchups the more I like Niners.....Defense Wins Games and I will take the Younger Defense...
27-13
It reminds me of the Atlanta game all this talk about Gonzales retiring how nice it would be for ATL to win with him retiring .....
Now all this talk about Ray lewis retiring and same talk...
I smell Fairytale AGAIN....
Damn How many fairytales did we have this season....? I lost count
Winning isn’t everything.. It’s the Only thing.
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Niners Win By more than 7 points... the more I look at the matchups the more I like Niners.....Defense Wins Games and I will take the Younger Defense...
27-13
It reminds me of the Atlanta game all this talk about Gonzales retiring how nice it would be for ATL to win with him retiring .....
Now all this talk about Ray lewis retiring and same talk...
I smell Fairytale AGAIN....
Damn How many fairytales did we have this season....? I lost count
Everyone is talking about SF Pistol O and how unstoppable they are. They point out that BAL lost to 2 teams with moblile QB PHI & WAS. But that was when Lewis Ngata and Suggs were out. Now the 3 are back BAL D has been outstanding. BAL will have success against SF Pistol. Lewis Ngata and Suggs will blow up the Pistol and be very disruptive. They will sit and wait and try to figure who has the ball. They will hit Kap early and often and punish him and run to the ball.
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Everyone is talking about SF Pistol O and how unstoppable they are. They point out that BAL lost to 2 teams with moblile QB PHI & WAS. But that was when Lewis Ngata and Suggs were out. Now the 3 are back BAL D has been outstanding. BAL will have success against SF Pistol. Lewis Ngata and Suggs will blow up the Pistol and be very disruptive. They will sit and wait and try to figure who has the ball. They will hit Kap early and often and punish him and run to the ball.
I like the Ravens in a somewhat lopsided win much like the Pats game. Kaepernick is still just a rookie with only 10 starts. While he is talented and well coached, I just can't see him beating Baltimores defense. Ravens will focus on him with schemed and tough defense. Hoping Baltimore will get up early on the 9ers like Atlanta did. Flacco will rune a very balanced offense and with time running out, Kaepernick will press and start making mistakes. Baltimore won't look back. Take the points and over.
Good luck to all.
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I like the Ravens in a somewhat lopsided win much like the Pats game. Kaepernick is still just a rookie with only 10 starts. While he is talented and well coached, I just can't see him beating Baltimores defense. Ravens will focus on him with schemed and tough defense. Hoping Baltimore will get up early on the 9ers like Atlanta did. Flacco will rune a very balanced offense and with time running out, Kaepernick will press and start making mistakes. Baltimore won't look back. Take the points and over.
The more I study this game the more I like BAL. They are now healthy and playing the right way. They revamped the O line for the playoffs and have been playing outstanding. Lewis Ngata and Suggs are back for the playoffs and the D have been playing outstanding. They have outstanding special teams. BAL are solid in all 3 phases offense defense and special teams. It should be a great game.
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The more I study this game the more I like BAL. They are now healthy and playing the right way. They revamped the O line for the playoffs and have been playing outstanding. Lewis Ngata and Suggs are back for the playoffs and the D have been playing outstanding. They have outstanding special teams. BAL are solid in all 3 phases offense defense and special teams. It should be a great game.
I like Niners to score first. IMO they also cover the first half. As for the game it will be close just like 4 of the past 8 superbowls that have been decided by 4 or less. Ill take the better quarterback, and a team who has players who have been in a superbowl before. Give me the RAVENS!
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I like Niners to score first. IMO they also cover the first half. As for the game it will be close just like 4 of the past 8 superbowls that have been decided by 4 or less. Ill take the better quarterback, and a team who has players who have been in a superbowl before. Give me the RAVENS!
I feel very strong picking Baltimore,also have to go with the under on this one..
Quote Originally Posted by dddevin69:
Quote Originally Posted by king_of_diamond:
Niners are the better team. I'll take them at -4 and watch kaepernick go to Disney world after starting just 10 games. [/Quote
I AGREE. using FOOTBALL LOGIC....niners are the better team if u use the eye test. having said that...I think the brother factor will play a large part. these 2 teams are mirror images of each other. it will be a CLOSEGAME guaranteed. There is no way in hell that SF has that much of a competitive advantage over baltimore. PLus ur betting big time on a 2nd year qb. picking SF to win the game...but BALTIMORE + 4. JUMP ON IT
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I feel very strong picking Baltimore,also have to go with the under on this one..
Quote Originally Posted by dddevin69:
Quote Originally Posted by king_of_diamond:
Niners are the better team. I'll take them at -4 and watch kaepernick go to Disney world after starting just 10 games. [/Quote
I AGREE. using FOOTBALL LOGIC....niners are the better team if u use the eye test. having said that...I think the brother factor will play a large part. these 2 teams are mirror images of each other. it will be a CLOSEGAME guaranteed. There is no way in hell that SF has that much of a competitive advantage over baltimore. PLus ur betting big time on a 2nd year qb. picking SF to win the game...but BALTIMORE + 4. JUMP ON IT
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his little 
baby brothers butt.Just like he did when they were kids.GO RAVENS
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