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Green Bay at Atlanta (01/15/2011)

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Posted: #1

Away:  Green Bay [10-7 ATS]
Home:  Atlanta [11-5 ATS]

Game Time: 8:00 PM
Stadium: Georgia Dome

Recent Meetings:
11/28/10 - GB 17 vs. ATL 20

Team Leaders:

Green Bay:
Passing: Aaron Rodgers (4102)
Rushing: Brandon Jackson (713)
Receiving: Greg Jennings (1273)

Atlanta:
Passing: Matt Ryan (3705)
Rushing: Michael Turner (1371)
Receiving: Roddy White (1389)

More:
Live Odds
In-Depth Matchup Information
Consensus Betting Information

 
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Posted: #2

Nobody posting yet!??! NOBODY!?!?! Where's "Atlanta Falcons"??? I figured he'd be in here talking crap already - especially since the 'Aints lost......

 

Oh well - I think Breakabookie is riding the Packers to the Superbowl. I don't see any reason why they can't beat "lucky-ass" (and yes, they were pretty lucky this year - go back and look at some of your games, and don't re-write history - how many of your games went down to the wire, including Green Bay which you won on a last second field goal ) Hotlanta straight up?

 

Gotta roll with Gang-Green

Packers - Moneyline - small wager, though

 
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Posted: #3
for me:

Packers Def. > Falcons Def.
Rodgers > Ryan

The only big concerne in this one is the Packers run game. But i liked how they established a solid run game against the 14th ranked eagles (in yards per attempt). Think starks and kuhn could do it even better against the 27th ranked falcons run D (y/a).

Packers ML
 
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Posted: #4

Falcons have been the most consistent NFC team the whole year and are the only NFC team capable of beating the Patriots. I do not fear any of these NFC "professional" football teams. Notice "professional". I believe some of these teams would lose to Temple. As for the Packers, they are pretty overrated because all of you casual fans just listen to what ESPN has to say instead of real intelligence. Whoever ESPN and the media blows is who the fans tend to like. The Falcons defense has proven to be a top defense. And if anyone thinks the no named Starks running back will even reach 10 yards you are insance. Our defense isn't the shitty Eagles defense.

I think Gonzalez has a field day. He has been waiting for this moment his whole life. He can finally win what he most desires. Sorry I don't really recall the bottom feeding Cheifs history but weren't they a basement team as always with Gonzo. This will be Gonzo's year.

Fear the Dome.

 
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Posted: #5

Yeah Atlanta is good at home. Alot of those home games were close results though. Plus Green Bay went into Foxborough without Rodgers starting, and nearly beat the Pats on the final drive. And the Pats home record is as if not more impressive as the falcons over past two years. They shoulda, coulda, woulda beat the Falcons on the road too. I like the Woodson and Mattews factor. Especially when it comes to stopping Turner, and Gonzalez. Gonzalez may have been waiting for a team and game like this for a long time, but Charles Woodson has been waiting for this since he introduced the world to what the tuck rule is. And the Falcons defense might be better than the eagles defense, but not by much.

PACK MONEYLINE

 
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Posted: #6
Still diggin the Cheeseheads although they scared the shite out of me on the Eagles last drive before the pick that sealed the deal.
 
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Posted: #7
Quote Originally Posted by ThomasKranked:

for me:

Packers Def. > Falcons Def.
Rodgers > Ryan

The only big concerne in this one is the Packers run game. But i liked how they established a solid run game against the 14th ranked eagles (in yards per attempt). Think starks and kuhn could do it even better against the 27th ranked falcons run D (y/a).

Packers ML


Packers defense and Atlanta's defense is not much difference in YPG or scoring. Plus the packers play in a crappy division while Atlanta played two games against the world champs and a very good Tampa team. Offense you may have a point that Rodgers is better at this time than Ryan but there is no way you can say that GBs offense is better. Espn has been disrespecting the Falcons all year long and they're on the Packers nuts now. Lots of people have been fading the Falcons all year long and losing money and that trend will continue this week. Falcons win 31-20
 
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Posted: #8
Quote Originally Posted by JLoLo:



Packers defense and Atlanta's defense is not much difference in YPG or scoring. Plus the packers play in a crappy division while Atlanta played two games against the world champs and a very good Tampa team. Offense you may have a point that Rodgers is better at this time than Ryan but there is no way you can say that GBs offense is better. Espn has been disrespecting the Falcons all year long and they're on the Packers nuts now. Lots of people have been fading the Falcons all year long and losing money and that trend will continue this week. Falcons win 31-20


I dont say that the entire offense is better. Especially the run game is a big point for the falcons. Also Roddy White is at least the same "big play"-type of player compared to jennings. But the Packers D looked just great for me over the last weeks/month, especially in shutting down "key 3rd/4th"-downs. I like these stats:

 Red zone scoring defense: overall/last3

GB: 47.06% 20.00%
ATL: 54.76% 83.33%

if 47 and 54 sounds quite equal - GB 8th in that ranking, ATL 22nd

in close games like this one, i trust the D that can shut down key plays (and just did it on sunday against the eagles)...

 
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Posted: #9
Quote Originally Posted by ThomasKranked:



I dont say that the entire offense is better. Especially the run game is a big point for the falcons. Also Roddy White is at least the same "big play"-type of player compared to jennings. But the Packers D looked just great for me over the last weeks/month, especially in shutting down "key 3rd/4th"-downs. I like these stats:

 Red zone scoring defense: overall/last3

GB: 47.06% 20.00%
ATL: 54.76% 83.33%

if 47 and 54 sounds quite equal - GB 8th in that ranking, ATL 22nd

in close games like this one, i trust the D that can shut down key plays (and just did it on sunday against the eagles)...

HA....thats awesome I took a close look at some redzone percentages as well...last game pack converted 50% while the Falcons I believe converted 100%.  GB has been converting in the redzone a lot better as of late.  Rodgers shredded the Falcons last game through the air.  Not sure if the week off is actually good for a player like Matty Ice who I believe thrives on staying in rythm and keeping the tempo nice and smooth week to week.  Either way I have a feeling both teams should be doing some scoring, despite the good defenses so I kinda like the over. Atlanta's more balanced attack with Michael Turner does worry me a bit as well. Rodgers out plays Ryan.

MAYBE I WILL BUY SOME STOCK IN THE PACKERS CORPORATION?

PACKERS +2 with a small play on the OVER    

 
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Posted: #10
Atlanta @ home is pretty good. That is their edge against an equally if not better team. I think that Packers "D" has more supporting stars than Falcons. When it come down to it, GB is that much better and IMO they have played a lot better than the Falcons as of late.

Green Bay 31

Falcons  24
 
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Posted: #11

This one will also be a slamma jamma game with two high flying solid teams. The Falcons beat them at home this season by a hair and this one should be the same. The Packers are walking wounded VS the relatively healthy Atlanta Falcons. Other than that I see a 3 point game. I would take the Pack if they are getting more than 3, other wise the play is Atlanta -2.5 to advance to the conference championship.

 
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Posted: #12
Good stuff so far guys. 

Is it just me or does anyone agree that betting the spread in close games like this simply isn't worth it? If you believe in one team, go for it. It's the same for the Ravens@Steelers. 

When ATL and GB have matched up no game has been decided by fewer than 3 points since 1989. I'd only bet GB plus the points if I get 3.5 points otherwise why not bet GB straight up at 2.15? 

True, ATL has been very good at home with a strong running game and a very reliable but one trick pony passing game. The defense has been alright but I just don't trust it to withstand the Packers offense especially with a little running game going (might be an overestimation though). GB is the hot team to me and and I think they'll beat the Bears in the NFC Championship game and advance to the Super Bowl. 

Plus I do like the UNDER. 
 
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Posted: #13
I don't see Micheal Turner getting through the GB defense..... if ATL pulls this out it will be on Matty Ice's shoulders.... on the flip side I'm just not impressed with the Falcon defense...

I feel like the Packers are the play here and I'm suprised this isn't a pick-em... (not because it's my NFC pick)

With the offenses of both of these teams the Over seems like the likely choice even though last time these two played they only put up 37.... I like the OVER this time  because it's in a dome and both teams have plenty of deep threats.... 

GB impressed me dominating the Eagles in just about all aspects of the game.... the score doesn't tell the story about how 1 sided that game was.... to hold Vick and co. to 16 points is very tough.....

and guess what, GB all of a sudden has a running game now.... and that's without Rodgers having to scramble all game....

public money is definitely on the Falcons as the line opened at 1.... everyone much be betting the Matt Ryan at home 2 losses trend.... I don't think the bye week helps in this case


buying the hook to 3.5


GL to ALL

Go Pack


 
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by Bechmann:

Good stuff so far guys. 

Is it just me or does anyone agree that betting the spread in close games like this simply isn't worth it? If you believe in one team, go for it. It's the same for the Ravens@Steelers. 

When ATL and GB have matched up no game has been decided by fewer than 3 points since 1989. I'd only bet GB plus the points if I get 3.5 points otherwise why not bet GB straight up at 2.15? 

True, ATL has been very good at home with a strong running game and a very reliable but one trick pony passing game. The defense has been alright but I just don't trust it to withstand the Packers offense especially with a little running game going (might be an overestimation though). GB is the hot team to me and and I think they'll beat the Bears in the NFC Championship game and advance to the Super Bowl. 

Plus I do like the UNDER. 


fyi whenever the Steelers/Ravens match-up I always take the 3 plus the hook regardless of whose the favorite.... I usually do pretty well as they are close games.....

I make sure I know if Troy Palamalu will be on the field or not

GL
 
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Posted: #15
Quote Originally Posted by BreakaBookie:

I don't see Micheal Turner getting through the GB defense..... if ATL pulls this out it will be on Matty Ice's shoulders.... on the flip side I'm just not impressed with the Falcon defense...

I feel like the Packers are the play here and I'm suprised this isn't a pick-em... (not because it's my NFC pick)

With the offenses of both of these teams the Over seems like the likely choice even though last time these two played they only put up 37.... I like the OVER this time  because it's in a dome and both teams have plenty of deep threats....  I forgot to say that Rodgers fumbled at the 1 yard line which probably would've resulted in an OVER.

GB impressed me dominating the Eagles in just about all aspects of the game.... the score doesn't tell the story about how 1 sided that game was.... to hold Vick and co. to 16 points is very tough.....

and guess what, GB all of a sudden has a running game now.... and that's without Rodgers having to scramble all game....

public money is definitely on the Falcons as the line opened at 1.... everyone much be betting the Matt Ryan at home 2 losses trend.... I don't think the bye week helps in this case


buying the hook to 3.5


GL to ALL

Go Pack


 
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Posted: #16
Born and raised in Wisconsin, I've been a Packers fan all my life. 

My heart says to back the Pack, but my analysis tells a different story.  This is a tough road game against a team with a great home record.  Atlanta is a very good football team on both sides of the ball and is well rested for this contest.

The Pack can win if they can do one of the following:

They play a perfect mistake free game.

The defense creates turnovers without the Pack turning the ball over.

 Starks has another good game and they can control the time of possession, but it's not likely that a rookie running back can repeat the same performance two weeks in a row.

Just my initial thoughts.
 
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Posted: #17
gbay for me 
 
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Posted: #18
Its simple guys, Falcon D is a fraud and Packer D is the real deal.  What game this season has the atlanta defense won by themselves when the offense was struggling?  Turnovers have saved them to this point.  The Pack must limit their turnovers and they will roll this reguar season, 1-and-done team!
 
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Posted: #19

  On the surface, Atlanta appears unbeatable at home. But are they? They were, until the Packers returned to Atlanta.  The last time they met, the Pack lost a close one by the score of 20-17 in WK # 12.  While both teams are somewhat comparable on "O", I feel Green Bay is clearly superior, with their "D"! Since that time, the Packers have been getting it done. GB excels in domes, artificial surfaces, and on the road. I see them meeting their rivals in Soldier Field next week. Getting points in this situation, is "icing on the cake"!

GREEN BAY   +  2

 
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Posted: #20
Quote Originally Posted by vue21849:

  On the surface, Atlanta appears unbeatable at home. But are they? They were, until the Packers returned to Atlanta.  The last time they met, the Pack lost a close one by the score of 20-17 in WK # 12.  While both teams are somewhat comparable on "O", I feel Green Bay is clearly superior, with their "D"! Since that time, the Packers have been getting it done. GB excels in domes, artificial surfaces, and on the road. I see them meeting their rivals in Soldier Field next week. Getting points in this situation, is "icing on the cake"!

GREEN BAY   +  2



I think Rodgers fumbled it on the goal line in that game also.... couldve been a different game
 
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Posted: #21
GB +2 (3units): Rodgers is 8-4 ATS as a dog while Ryan is 15-5 ATS at home.  I like the hot team playing against the team coming off the bye, even at the dome. If the line reaches 3, i may double up. The Pack hasn't lost by more than 3 almost all year long.  The Pack should've won their last meeting, they outgained the Falcons by 124 yards. SCORE: Packers 28-Falcons 21.
 
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Posted: #22
After reading many posts on here....the choice is Atlanta....lay the 2 and sit back and relax.  The falcons will find a way to get it done.  I believe Matt Ryan has only lost 2 games at home in his 3 year career.  However....the most important reason to bet the falcons?  It's because the majority of the people on here say take the Packers.  Trust me...I work in the industry.  The public is wrong the majority of the time....if the public was right, sportsbooks would not exist.  The most recent example was last night when everyone pounded oregon and it dropped 2.5 to 3 points all the way down to a pick'em at game time.  Enough said.  Falcons ADVANCE.
 
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Posted: #23
 green Bay has come in full circle meaning that they now have an edge that most people doesn't know about and that is their running game. It will definitely turn some wheels in the minds of ATL's Defensive Coordinator. Not only that the Falcons "D" has to worry about A. Rodgers arm and ability to extend plays with his feet, but now the play-action passing game will open up vertically and only a few QB"s are good at that and A. Rodgers is included in that elite force. Hitting the TE on play action straight up the middle is one of the biggest weakness Falcons "D" has and Brees of the Saints proved it. If you have a chance, take a look at some of the games Falcons played and you will see what I'm talking about. I really like the UNDER in this game.

Green Bay  23

Atlanta Falcons  17


 
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Posted: #24
Tight Ends that scored TD's against the Falcons through play action pass.

Jimmy Graham (Saints)
Jeff KIng (Carolina)
John Gilmore (TB Bucs)
Mike Hoomanawanui (Rams)
Todd Heap (Baltimore Ravens)

These are just some of the players in the TE position that scored on a Play Action pass against the Falcons Defense down the middle. Fullbacks and Running Backs as well like Jason Snelling. Basically, Falcons Defense is weak in the middle and now that GB has Starks to pose a threat, I expect them to take advantage of that.

GB Straight Up Win
 
 
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Posted: #25

I know I discounted the pack a month or so ago but I also said two weeks ago Beware if they get in the playoffs!

Playoff teams coming off byes are 10-18 ATS since 2003 (7-13 since 2005).

Playoff teams coming off a road win in Round 1 are 7-2 ATS in Round 2 since 2005.

 

This packer team is heating up at the right time. Might be superbowl bound. Packers for the large!

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