Green Bay at Atlanta (01/15/2011)

This game has all the makings to be a shootout...

GB/ATL OVER 43.5 (dropped two points since Tuesday)

holtnt Nice writeup and I think you're right on the money w/ that UNDER call.. Hope it cashes for us.

I also think the PACK is the play here.  Atlanta really has no quality wins "against a team w/ a DEF that is" aside from Baltimore earlier.   The no Defense rules out any Saints wins.  Note, the pack game earlier was Green Bay's 2nd straight week on the road (we all know that is flat spot looking at you, and the PACK really wasn't that flat).  If you look at Atlantas wins, I'm not really seeing a battle tested team at this point.  The two tampa wins were against a team that recorded NO SACKS in either game, 100+ penalty yards one game, and a late special teams score that changed the game.  Upon slightly scratching the surface of the regular season, both games against the Pennsylvania teams were dissapointments.  I know it was week one against PITT, but I'm simply trying to evaluate past performances against very good defenses, and the Falcons laid an egg against PITT, and I'm here to tell you that the PACK's defense is playing comparable to the Steelers.  For an offensive opponent comparison, I feel Atlanta got it handed to them w/ a Kevin Kolb led PHILLY pass attack. And I'm here to tell you the Pack will be bringing in a very comparable (probably better) attack this weekend.   I understand that every team has flat spots throughout the season, and I'm sure one could maybe point out some in Green Bay's season.  I'm not here to pick at the Falcons, they are a quality team that deserves to be playing at home this weekend, yet they've played a schedule littered w/ inadequate defenses, allowing them excellent red zone efficiency.  If you think the Pack will allow such efficiency this weekend, I guess ATL would be the play, but I'll ride w/ the hot team with a  stellar D and a very "apt" QB.  Plus, I love playing against that opening -2.5 line, I feel it's often a "reeler" for early square bettors.  Give me the PACK-dogs plus the 2.5. 

Regarding the O/U, I think the team w/ the lead will utilize the ground game to its maximum.  Both teams have excellent field goal kickers, which could limit scoring somewhat.  Again, I'm really banking on Green Bay's defense showing up this week.  The only potentials I see "wrecking" the under play would be Atlanta coming out smoking hot, which I believe the week off tailors that.  If that happens, I see the Pack going tit-for-tat.  Now, if the Pack comes out smoking, I believe they use their D and short passing game to methodically slow the game down.  Just sayin !!!!!!  If you missed the writeup by holtnt on page one of this, check it out..,...the guy is very good (for the record).

Best of luck w/ your plays !!

been riding the packers all year.............ouch.  Still the pack here.  Play the falcons very tough, and loss.  With the new found running game, like the packers.

Thanks kid good luck with the large!

i was off last week with the colts, eagles, and chiefs.  only bright spot was taking seahawks ML.  but really only felt slightly off overall as both colts / eagles games went down to the wire. 

with that said, im playin' safer this weekend.  puttin little stock in coinflip scenarios...

Falcons finally fall at home this Saturday.  Packers are the better team, should've won last time, and will have an extra weapon this time around - James Starks.  And believe me, James Starks is not a fluke. He's a bruising back from Buffalo who can wear Atlanta's defense down late in the game.

Packers ML.  Screw the points.  And beware of teasing Atlanta.....

I picked Packers to play in the Super Bowl the week of the Giants game which decided who was getting in the playoffs.  And just as I thought the scoring defense showed up bigtime in the first round.  The Packers can score with anyone, the difference is they have the most talented defense left in the NFC playoffs.  No, not the Bears, and the Bears don't have anything near the Pack in offense.  Atlanta's D numbers may look comparable, but they aren't nearly as stout as GB.  And will not be nearly as tough of a matchup against the Pack O, as the Pack D will be for their O.  The intensity of the playoff game will separate these two defenses...guaranteed.  Winner of this game punches a ticket to Dallas basically...both teams will roll Bears/Hawks winner. 

Packers ML - Big play

Packers Over - small play (GB D is solid but Atlanta still has a potent offense.  I'm thinking 27-20 Packers)

Seems like most of the posters here are on GB.  I think the Dirty Birds get it done at home.  The line has moved to basically a pick'em, I like my chances with ATL.  BOL

Atlanta was 13-3 with a 7-1 home record for a reason.  they are very balanced and should beat GB by 3-6 points

final prediction:

Atlanta 31

Packers 27

This should be a very good game.  Both teams seems to be evenly matched with slight advantage to GB's defense.  This is a return match Atlanta winning 20 to 17 during the regular season - advantage GB.  Atlanta playing at home & had one extra week off - advantage Atlanta.  Which team is healthier?  Atlanta.

I took Green Bay *3.5 earlier, but now I'm taking Atlanta -1 hoping for a middle.

The O/U is just about the number posted.  Leaning on under.  I am envisioning a defensive game.

Atlanta at the half -1

Aloha and good luck to all

Looking at those numbers, it seemed a bit odd to me.  I've been watching NFL football since the early 80's and I always remembered home field and by weeks as being huge advantages in terms of winning the game.  Your numbers are ATS, and I don't know your source and I don't have access to all the ATS numbers all the NFL playoffs to verify, but I'll take your word for it since I'm a little lazy to dig up all the info.  I was interested in what the SU numbers are for the divisonal round, since this game has now become basically a pick'em.

However, I did a bit of research of my own to see if I can gain more insight into the home field and by week advantages.  My source comes from the NFL site:

https://static.nfl.com/static/content/public/image/history/pdfs/History/Playoff_Summaries.pdf

Since 2000 (someone can go further back and check those numbers too, if they have spare time to kill): 

Home teams (hence also 1st round byes) 25-13 SU

I was also curious about the SU numbers of teams that win on the road and how they fared next week on the road again.

Since 2000: 5-8 SU

Also of note is that in the AFC no road team made it out of the wild cards in 2006, 2002, 2000.  In the NFC, no road team made it out in 2009, 2006, 2003, 2001, 2000.

So what does all this mean to me?  As I had suspected, winning on the road is tough in the NFL playoffs.  There are teams that can do it, but they'll have to be the teams of destiny.  If you truly believe that GB is that team this year, then go ahead.  I'm not sold yet, to me, ATL wins this game.  And since this game has dropped down to a pick'em, I gotta like it.  GLA

Packers/Falcons Under 43  

Nice info. I get some of my stats from a secret spy. I think the road win factor comes recently from teams like the jets, steelers, and giants who had unbelievable runs in the past few years. Green Bay just seems like that dream team this year, Based on their season we know theyre tough. Atl not facing as much adversity. Pats, Steelers, Ravens probably next with facing so many injuries and surviving. Gluck