New England at New York (11/22/2012)

Last week the Jets made me look foolish for picking the Rams. I thought this team had packed it in, but they proved me wrong by heading out west for the second time in two weeks and coming back home with the W. I was more than surprised by their effort, and I was also surprised they didn't look ahead to this upcoming game against the Pats. Who would've thought the Jets would win on the road that convincingly after turning the ball over on a fake punt and having a field goal blocked as well. Believe it or not, that's actually a sign of mental toughness. I hate to give the Jets credit for anything, but last week showed me that this team has what it takes to overcome adversity on the field and in the locker room. Granted it was against the Rams, but I think their positive momentum from the road win plays favorably into this division rival matchup this week.

Last time these teams played, it was a classic Jets-Pats game. On the Jets opening possession, they took the ball and went on a methodical 5 minute, 11-play, 76-yard scoring drive to take a 7-0 lead.  Just as they silenced the crowd at Gillette Stadium, they allowed Devin McCourty to return the ensuing kickoff for a 104-yard touchdown. That was very uncharacteristic of a Mike Westoff unit that has consistently ranked in the top 5 in avg yards allowed per return, and had not allowed a kick return for a TD since 2009. Well, needless to say, the Jets squandered their momentum and found themselves down by 10 in the 4th quarter. They eventually played some solid football and came back to tie the game with about 2 minutes left to play. Then the Pats practically handed the Jets this game with a costly fumble on a kickoff return with about 2 minutes left in the game. The Jets, not surprisingly, were not aggressive enough in the final minutes and they opted to play for the field goal instead of going for the throat like Coach Belichick would do. It didn't help that Sanchez took a costly sack that nearly brought them out of field goal range, and that the Pats had all 3 of their timeouts. The Jets ended up only taking 20 seconds off the clock and kicked a field goal, leaving Brady a minute and forty seconds to drive down the field and kick the game tying field goal. The Jets ended up losing a close one in overtime. 

It's really important to note that in that game, Gronkowski led the team in targets and receptions (6 catches on 9 targets), and ended up catching 2 touchdowns.  That type of production is hard to replace.  Not to mention, he is one of the best redzone targets the NFL has seen in quite some time, and he garners so much attention that he opens up everything for other players as well. He is also a heck of a blocker, something you won't be able to replace with Aaron Hernandez. If you strip away the production from the Gronk and the kick return for a TD, you can take 21 points off the board for the Pats previous win over the Jets.

I think the left-for-dead Jets will be much looser and confident this time around, and play another competitive game. Given the circumstances, getting 7 points at home sounds like a decent value. Keep in mind: no Gronk, and almost equally as important, they could likely be without the services of starting guards, Logan Mankins & Dan Connolly who went down in week 10. Yeah, yeah...we all know New England put up a 50 spot on the Colts, but the Jets beat down the Colts too. They will not be impressed.  I think the Jets are all too familiar with this Patriot offense to get blown out at home.  Not to mention, they would like to redeem themselves for their last showing at MetLife when they got embarrassed by the Miami Dolphins.

For the record, I despise the Jets and it hurts me to make this pick. But I am going with the Dirty Sanchez and the J-E-T-S.